Pattern Jammin January 2024

[dsaur]

FFC AFD has zero mention of anything but rain. Will be interesting to see if / when they start waffling.

Any time you have cold air pushing into Ga, and a rain shield showing in middle Ga. I like the chances for timing. I particularly like the proposed set up around the 10, with a low below Texas, spitting out impulses into cold air moving into Ga, and a stalled boundary to guide the maybe low across Fla. and the rain into Ga. Now it needs not to be fantasy, and come with excellent timing. In the cold chasing rain scenario, the cold needs to win some of the time, or no climo averages

 

[Parker]

?

 

[CaryWx]

I would say this will be something to watch for on the HRRR starting tomorrow night. Even at its longest range, it’s the best at picking up FGEN induced precipitation.

Hard to see any frozen though. Just don't think there is going to be enough BRRR for the HRRR. Sorry, had to do it.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

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?

looks like it will be either a small event or suppression city. I don't see this thing amping up and cutting.

 

[iGRXY]

looks like it will be either a small event or suppression city. I don't see this thing amping up and cutting.

FGEN will cause more precip and dynamic cooling. Globals, particularly that God awful model will never pick up on that.

 

[Chazwin]

Hard to see any frozen though. Just don't think there is going to be enough BRRR for the HRRR. Sorry, had to do it.

If it were to happen, there would be considerable dynamic cooling. Very much like the system in February 2021 that brought widespread 2-4” snowfall to the SC upstate and Western NC Piedmont after temperatures being in the lower 50s just a few hours earlier. Only the NAM and HRRR remotely showed anything while the globals were out to lunch

 

[Parker]

This is the 18z GFS charts for BHM on snowfall. There wasn’t a single member at 12z or 06z. I find this encouraging to see it spitting out solutions similar to the nam and cmc. It’s a thread the needle long shot, but we have a chance! Looking forward to 00z

 

[iGRXY]

HRRR picked up really well on the FGEN driven stuff in Jan 2022 and I was sitting with 8” before the switch over. Obviously we won’t get nothing like that but FGEN and dynamic cooling almost always delivers over performer and will not get really picked up on until 24-36 hours out.

 

[Parker]

Also the sref plumes have a mean of .62 with three members over 3 inches. Those definitely suck but fun to look at.

 

[Tagat]

View attachment 139602
This is the 18z GFS charts for BHM on snowfall. There wasn’t a single member at 12z or 06z. I find this encouraging to see it spitting out solutions similar to the nam and cmc. It’s a thread the needle long shot, but we have a chance! Looking forward to 00z

It really Suxs for us down here in Bama. Our climate has gotten to the point where our best chance for any kind of snow is that it has to be extreme. Gone are the days of ever hoping for an overrunning event her in central Bama. Always cold chasing moisture. Unless it a triple phaser I do not see much hope.

 

[Chazwin]

HRRR picked up really well on the FGEN driven stuff in Jan 2022 and I was sitting with 8” before the switch over. Obviously we won’t get nothing like that but FGEN and dynamic cooling almost always delivers over performer and will not get really picked up on until 24-36 hours out.

If the set up actually occurs, something like the February 2021 event would be on the table. January 2022 had an entrenched dry and cold airmass in place with temps in the low to mid 30s and dewpoints in the lower teens. This would be a very marginal set up where it would be relying 100% on dynamic cooling to crash the column.

 

[Brent]

It really Suxs for us down here in Bama. Our climate has gotten to the point where our best chance for any kind of snow is that it has to be extreme. Gone are the days of ever hoping for an overrunning event her in central Bama. Always cold chasing moisture. Unless it a triple phaser I do not see much hope.

My parents over there had their biggest snowstorm since 1993 6 years ago

 

[Tagat]

My parents over there had their biggest snowstorm since 1993 6 years ago

I was here for that to and a few others, but since 2015/2016 we have had zilch. Areas further North and East had some sort of overrunning event by the time the cold got here the moister was gone. Not saying it doesn't get cold but by the time it gets to us there is nothing left to work with.

 

[sigwx]

Happy New Year too all the southernwx folks and more snow to all....

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

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Yike!

 

[SimeonNC]

Has the 0z NAM started rolling yet?(Am en route to a party rn so can't check)

 

[Snowfan]

Has the 0z NAM started rolling yet?(Am en route to a party rn so can't check)

 

[jackendrickwx]

NGA gets NAMd again, carolinas skipped for those wondering

 

[iGRXY]

NAM cut the precip shield off in the Carolinas. Still waiting on tropical tidbits to load the 850 FGEN but my guess is the precip shield is being under modeled

 

[jackendrickwx]

NAM cut the precip shield off in the Carolinas. Still waiting on tropical tidbits to load the 850 FGEN but my guess is the precip shield is being under modeled