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Pattern Jammin January 2024

SimeonNC said:
Has the 0z NAM started rolling yet?(Am en route to a party rn so can't check)
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iGRXY said:
CAA cut the shield off. We’ll see where it goes
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Yeah this a case where you want the WAA to be strong enough to provide the forcing. Even still the soundings across the Upstate and over to CLT metro are still very close.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah this a case where you want the WAA to be strong enough to provide the forcing. Even still the soundings across the Upstate and over to CLT metro are still very close.
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Yeah that was literally just a case of CAA winning out and eating up the precip shield. Can’t get dynamic cooling without the moisture or WAA driving it.
 
And the gfs bout 300 mile diff as the crow flies

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Chazwin said:
If the set up actually occurs, something like the February 2021 event would be on the table. January 2022 had an entrenched dry and cold airmass in place with temps in the low to mid 30s and dewpoints in the lower teens. This would be a very marginal set up where it would be relying 100% on dynamic cooling to crash the column.
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The HRRR and Burell both nailed that one. He was on top of that one for several days and brought it home!
 
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