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Pattern Jammin January 2024

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This really should make anyone think twice about any pattern flip mid month. I saw this yesterday but kept my mouth shut. Didnt want to ruin the party. A solid run at phase 4 around the 15th never supported what models showed yesterday. And sure enough they flipped back overnight to a more likely scenario giving the MJO forecast. Hopefully I'm wrong and other factors can take over, but I'm not betting on it. That little loop trying to hang out in 2 or 3 is not doing us any favors. I wish it would just step on the gas and get the inevitable pass through 4,5 and 6 over with. It's going to take until Feb to get to good phases. And by then it'll probably collapse into the COD or loop back to 4 knowing our luck.
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RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
This really should make anyone think twice about any pattern flip mid month. I saw this yesterday but kept my mouth shut. Didnt want to ruin the party. A solid run at phase 4 around the 15th never supported what models showed yesterday. And sure enough they flipped back overnight to a more likely scenario giving the MJO forecast. Hopefully I'm wrong and other factors can take over, but I'm not betting on it. That little loop trying to hang out in 2 or 3 is not doing us any favors. I wish it would just step on the gas and get the inevitable pass through 4,5 and 6 over with. It's going to take until Feb to get to good phases. And by then it'll probably collapse into the COD or loop back to 4 knowing our luck.
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You need to look at Grit and Webber’s info about the MJO phases in the Winter Discussion Thread…as we go deeper into January in a Nino it’s very different from what I had always understood. I don’t think we’re done with model flip flopping around a pattern change.
 
Chazwin said:
You need to look at Grit and Webber’s info about the MJO phases in the Winter Discussion Thread…as we go deeper into January in a Nino it’s very different from what I had always understood. I don’t think we’re done with model flip flopping around a pattern change.
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I'll have to go back and find it. I did glance at it and saw phase 1 was about the worst phase possible for a winter storm. I found that strange since you always here phase 8 and 1 are good.
 
Arcc said:
Honestly the whole 6z GEFS had a weenie run look about it.
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After making some progress yesterday, the 00z Op and Ensemble suite punched us in the mouth for the most part...but the very last 00z run I looked at was the UKMet, and I thought it looked like the best of the bunch (only goes out to hr168)...and the 06z GEFS backed it up and pretty much looked just like it. Obviously, we gotta get the trough out of the west (1st order of business)...then the 2nd is seeing how long of a timing window we can get with some colder air.

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Most models show big storms coming up. Tues,Fri,late next Monday. You can pretty much bank on this as they are having an easy time pegging, forecasting these in their 10 day grids this season. Exact tracks will wobble from run to run. Each one carves its track futher and futher SE the GFS Op 8-9 day gives my area a decent chance, still needs some help staying all frozen. Also the upslope areas and even TN ,extreme north GA,AL have a shot at wrap around next Saturday.

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Pretty soon snowpak enthusiasts are going to have to find another excuse as to why we can’t get snow here. Your days are numbered View attachment 140381
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Yea we really need this upcoming chance to avoid the western dump and get up under the block. We lose this window , then its all about a fab feb hail mary. Gonna be Juda Cohen Chapter 2 if we dont.
 
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