I'll be honest delaying dumping the cold into the SE a few days like the euro/cmc probably isn't a bad thing. There's a better chance to capitalize on what they have at d10 than what the gfs has
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Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We may very well see the cold shot slow up a bit more over the Rockies in the medium-extended range (days 5-8), but it’s not going to stay there for too long in this case. The -NAO and trailing Pacific jet extension will force this mass eastward
And the next day...
Yes please!
Agree with Grit & you.
I'm not arguing that we don't want every Teleconnection on our side.
I know certain patterns are much more productive than others but it often still a thread the needle situation.
I'm staying positive Bc in the 100+ years of record keeping 2 snowless winters B2B haven't happened yet at GSP.
So this is our year.
Timing is going to work.
Yep you never want to go full dump. I'm sure someone may have stats to prove me wrong but I remember very few significant snow events at the front of an arctic outbreak
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nothing wrong with this.
I legitimately see more than one way score in this pattern
(I.e classic overrunning as the big vortex passes over the Lakes and SE Canada and/or a cold air damming event as the vortex ejects out into Atlantic Canada w/ subsidence and surface pressure rises out ahead of the trailing ridge)
I legitimately see more than one way score in this pattern
(I.e classic overrunning as the big vortex passes over the Lakes and SE Canada and/or a cold air damming event as the vortex ejects out into Atlantic Canada w/ subsidence and surface pressure rises out ahead of the trailing ridge)
12z eps has alot more snow activity on the plumes. Nothing massive but more active than 0z
I would agree, we could see the pattern change slow a bit more but I also think that could be a good thing as well.
NoSnowATL
Member
I would agree, we could see the pattern change slow a bit more but I also think that could be a good thing as well
I would agree, we could see the pattern change slow a bit more but I also think that could be a good thing as well
I would agree, we could see the pattern change slow a bit more but I also think that could be a good thing as well
lol fixed!
math_professor
Member
Been an observer for many years from the previous site to others you that have been around know my reference up to this excellent site. I don’t get to worked up these days over the lack of snow but sure miss the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s as far as snowfall goes. Super glad to read everyone’s input from an intellectual, professional, and enthusiast stand point.
Def nice to see that 50/50 signal still there at the end of the run. Still some skin in the game
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Patterns like these are nice in that there’s more than usual wiggle room to keep legit threats around. I wouldn’t sell the farm on it yet, but there’s a real chance we end up seeing more than one threat out of this.
NCSNOW
Member
Bare with me guys while I clean clean this board up. @packfan98 you on the clock I need MNGR now
The only storm on the front end of an Arctic outbreak that really stands out to me is February 1996. That cold airmass came into the south right as the storm was moving across the south. Most of the time, you either see the Arctic either fully established or kinda relaxing a bit before we score.
Eps plumes are impressive there's a 3-4 day period where 50+% of the members are 32-39 for highs. If that cold cluster is right can't ----- about it not being cold anymore
1988
Not really… in KCLT, the 5 days preceding that storm saw highs of 44, 35, 40, 38, and 31. That airmass had been established for a few days.
Snow means aren’t high, but they’re a good amount of hits. Way better then a few mean skewers 
Lots of ice showing up on means. Specifically cad areas and the western SE
Lots of ice showing up on means. Specifically cad areas and the western SE
You are correct. Probably hard to zero out again. I'm not even close to entertaining that possibility. I'm trying to figure out if this winter is indeed going to follow the progression of some of our nice Nino years. 65-66, 82-83, 86-87, 09-10. It may be others but right off the top of my head those are moderate to strong Ninos that had great runs after mid Jan. I'd be curious if someone @Webberweather53 or @Myfrotho704 or some others who know how to find it what the MJO was doing in those winters during the great periods? Although I don't think MJO data goes back to the 60s though.
Here's a good link for those that want to look it up
Yeah it looks like Jan 83 started in 7 and 8 then moved through 3-6 in Feb. Jan 10 was low amp 5 and 6 then Feb was phase 7 and 8
So we appear in good shape for Feb either way. The end of this month I guess it depends on how strong it is running through 4, 5 and 6. Of the ones I mentioned Jan 2010 was the only one in those phases and it was weak. Jan 87 was mostly in the COD after mid Jan.
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I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see a snow to ice to rain event north of 85 in the next ten days. Still think there’s good money in the last week of the month(along with in the banana stand).
I’m just putting in different years and I’m really surprised at some of the storms that were in supposedly bad phases.
January 1987- phase 3/4
February 1996- phase 3
January 2003- COD but close to phase 6
February 2004- phase 5
March 2009- phase 4
January 2011- phase 5/6
February 2014- COD but close to phase 5
January 2022- COD but borderline 6/7.
Of course most of January 2023 it was in COD but close to phase 8,1,2 and it was an absolute torch.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow in TN and Northern parts of Ms, AL, GA behind the big system this week. Those areas tend to do well in the CAA of these amped cutters the last few years
With the snow cover getting put down in the interior NE I actually think even areas south of I-85 might be in play in the 1/16-1/21 timeframe.
Hope nobody gets to upset if the pacific jet overextends late month once the cold moves on. Probably gonna happen as the MJO progresses east and +EAMT comes back. Then after that, the GOAK/Aleutian low and undercut western ridge look will probably arrive, along with renewed blocking.
Yep that's what I was saying you can't go phase x is always result y. Enso state, subseasonal effects of the Enso state, residual blocking and other things play in.
Really wish I could find VP maps for those years sometimes RMM phase charts don’t do justice
What would get really interesting is to see how many occurred in bad phase mjo but if you go back 5, 7, 10 days was the mjo in the favorable phase that dropped in the cold but we were suppressed then as it relaxed we scored
severestorm
Member
Eyewall(Meteorologist) on americanwx is very concerned about the SER being a issue