Ron Burgundy
Member
Overnight AFD from FFC re NAM and potential SN for ATL. (Doing my best NWS met impression! ?)
This is the part where I talk about the elephant in the room -
the NAM. NAM shows a good bit of moisture wrapping about the low
and making it`s way into northern GA. Trough diving in from the
north provides some extra upper level support for lift, and helps
drive a bit more colder air into the CWA. The NAM is also pretty
aggressive with some dynamic cooling and shows a nearly
isothermal, saturated layer all the up to from the surface to 700
mb across north GA on Wednesday night. This leads to some snow
production. 2 big questions in my mind with this solution - first,
will we actually see surface temps get that cold? Dynamic cooling
would require some decent rates. Otherwise, we are reliant on CAA
from the northwest, which would bring some drying air with it and
a whole new set of questions around how much precip reaches the
surface. Second, would a warm nose creep in with the isentropic
lift around the system that may be underdone within the NAM? This
could lead to a cold rain, especially given thermal profiles.
These questions are a big reason why I`m holding off on
advertising snow or a mix with this package. That said - there is
a chance given this solution, and it would mean a shot of winter
weather for some folks in north GA and the metro. Stay tuned.
This is the part where I talk about the elephant in the room -
the NAM. NAM shows a good bit of moisture wrapping about the low
and making it`s way into northern GA. Trough diving in from the
north provides some extra upper level support for lift, and helps
drive a bit more colder air into the CWA. The NAM is also pretty
aggressive with some dynamic cooling and shows a nearly
isothermal, saturated layer all the up to from the surface to 700
mb across north GA on Wednesday night. This leads to some snow
production. 2 big questions in my mind with this solution - first,
will we actually see surface temps get that cold? Dynamic cooling
would require some decent rates. Otherwise, we are reliant on CAA
from the northwest, which would bring some drying air with it and
a whole new set of questions around how much precip reaches the
surface. Second, would a warm nose creep in with the isentropic
lift around the system that may be underdone within the NAM? This
could lead to a cold rain, especially given thermal profiles.
These questions are a big reason why I`m holding off on
advertising snow or a mix with this package. That said - there is
a chance given this solution, and it would mean a shot of winter
weather for some folks in north GA and the metro. Stay tuned.
