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Pattern Jammin January 2024

The GEFS once again looks pretty good here pattern wise.

Big vortex over SE Canada and the Great Lakes with a trailer disturbance digging into the southern Rockies/ New Mexico.

That’s usually how you get overrunning events in the southern US

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Also looks plenty cold enough with -5C 850s down to I-40

IMG_1179.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS once again looks pretty good here pattern wise.

Big vortex over SE Canada and the Great Lakes with a trailer disturbance digging into the southern Rockies/ New Mexico.

That’s usually how you get overrunning events in the southern US

View attachment 140384
Click to expand...
Are you seeing anything that gives you pause for concern? Or do you think everything is progressing nicely for at least a shot of something wintery? Also are your thoughts still the same on a big Feb?
 
Stevo24 said:
Are you seeing anything that gives you pause for concern? Or do you think everything is progressing nicely for at least a shot of something wintery? Also are your thoughts still the same on a big Feb?
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I can see the cold getting held up a tick longer over the Rockies, but outside of that and the usual storm-scale details we really have no control over/can't forecast w/ much confidence this far out, no.

We're mostly just pattern & ensemble watching this far out. The operational runs are cool, but don't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS once again looks pretty good here pattern wise.

Big vortex over SE Canada and the Great Lakes with a trailer disturbance digging into the southern Rockies/ New Mexico.

That’s usually how you get overrunning events in the southern US

View attachment 140384


Also looks plenty cold enough with -5C 850s down to I-40

View attachment 140385
Click to expand...


The GEFS is biting. 0C 850 line almost down to the I-20 corridor.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-5309200.png
 
I like how the CMC Ens is using the cutter storms to feed ridging out in front of them into a heavy Greenland block, whereas the GEFS wants to plow the cutter storms into the block and weaken it a bit. In contrast, the GEFS has the better Pacific side.

But ideally, the cutter storms would feed into a heavy block, then the TPV would slowly rotate to the east underneath it....then not have the trough dig into the west thereafter. Let's see what the EPS says

BJ4Yi3a.png


6UFErlY.png
 
Stevo24 said:
Are you seeing anything that gives you pause for concern? Or do you think everything is progressing nicely for at least a shot of something wintery? Also are your thoughts still the same on a big Feb?
Click to expand...
Living in the South
 
Been through this too many times. Cold will overwhelm the moisture, after this coming week or weeks of rain, it will probably get to cold to snow. High suppressing moisture to the south. Only shot until Feb, will be when the cold air is leaving we get a return flow of moisture but it has to be quick and timing has to be 100% perfect, other wise you get snow to ice to rain in a matter of hours.
 
Pilotwx said:
Been through this too many times. Cold will overwhelm the moisture, after this coming week or weeks of rain, it will probably get to cold to snow. High suppressing moisture to the south. Only shot until Feb, will be when the cold air is leaving we get a return flow of moisture but it has to be quick and timing has to be 100% perfect, other wise you get snow to ice to rain in a matter of hours.
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This has been my concern too. Sure, we’ll get the cold. But, suddenly the moisture pipeline will shut off or we’ll force it too far south to get anything out of it.
 
Pilotwx said:
Been through this too many times. Cold will overwhelm the moisture, after this coming week or weeks of rain, it will probably get to cold to snow. High suppressing moisture to the south. Only shot until Feb, will be when the cold air is leaving we get a return flow of moisture but it has to be quick and timing has to be 100% perfect, other wise you get snow to ice to rain in a matter of hours.
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That's the way it is with our climate now. The cold comes with dry air, and the precip comes with warm air.
 
Brick Tamland said:
That's the way it is with our climate now. The cold comes with dry air, and the precip comes with warm air.
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In Atlanta metro, we had the cold air in place, followed by the moisture when we got a good ice/snow storm. I will put my money in that scenario any day over too cold to snow.
 
I would be excited about the long range for snowfall if I was in Memphis or Nashville.
Brick Tamland said:
That's the way it is with our climate now. The cold comes with dry air, and the precip comes with warm air.
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Dude, that's how it's always been! Cold air holds less moisture than warmer air. It's basic physics.
 
Pilotwx said:
Been through this too many times. Cold will overwhelm the moisture, after this coming week or weeks of rain, it will probably get to cold to snow. High suppressing moisture to the south. Only shot until Feb, will be when the cold air is leaving we get a return flow of moisture but it has to be quick and timing has to be 100% perfect, other wise you get snow to ice to rain in a matter of hours.
Click to expand...
There’s going to be plenty of moisture
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
And the next day...
ec-fast_z500a_namer_11.png
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If the Euro is right, which i think we all know by now it isn't, the low will pivot northeast with a glancing blow for the majority of the SE. Ideally, a trailing wave will be there and the low in the NE will be slow to lift out due to the block, giving the trailing wave an opportunity to remain south of the area.

Anyway, I'm not expecting much until late December early January mid January late January and into February.
 
Pilotwx said:
Been through this too many times. Cold will overwhelm the moisture, after this coming week or weeks of rain, it will probably get to cold to snow. High suppressing moisture to the south. Only shot until Feb, will be when the cold air is leaving we get a return flow of moisture but it has to be quick and timing has to be 100% perfect, other wise you get snow to ice to rain in a matter of hours.
Click to expand...
 
weatherfide said:
But two days later you end up with this:View attachment 140393
Which you probably won't like as much.
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Is it time to bring out the “Euro is holding back the energy to the southwest” card? I know I’m a weenie but when you cycle through the run it looks like that low in the Rockies doesn’t move for like 3 days.
 
Stormdoc said:
Is it time to bring out the “Euro is holding back the energy to the southwest” card? I know I’m a weenie but when you cycle through the run it looks like that low in the Rockies doesn’t move for like 3 days.
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I’m drawing my “euro has amp bias” card.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'll have to go back and find it. I did glance at it and saw phase 1 was about the worst phase possible for a winter storm. I found that strange since you always here phase 8 and 1 are good.
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What I learned from Webber's post about what snows in our area is the MJO isn't irrelevant but it's also not the Holy Grail.
It can literally snow in any of those phases of timing is right.
 
Stormdoc said:
Is it time to bring out the “Euro is holding back the energy to the southwest” card? I know I’m a weenie but when you cycle through the run it looks like that low in the Rockies doesn’t move for like 3 days.
Click to expand...
Then you would love the 00Z version:
ecmwf_z500a_namer_57.png
 
Billypg70 said:
What I learned from Webber's post about what snows in our area is the MJO isn't irrelevant but it's also not the Holy Grail.
It can literally snow in any of those phases of timing is right.
Click to expand...
Really you have to go to the 2nd level with mjo and go mjo plus enso state to get a better idea just saying phase x is result y isn't always applicable
 
Billypg70 said:
What I learned from Webber's post about what snows in our area is the MJO isn't irrelevant but it's also not the Holy Grail.
It can literally snow in any of those phases of timing is right.
Click to expand...
It may not be the holy grail (I don't think anything is, tbh), but I don't recall very much in the way of cold weather and snowy patterns for the SE when it has been in P3-6, where it has lived the majority of the time in winters of late. I have seen several modeled cold and snowy patterns, but I don't recall observing any actual ones. I will be fair and say that I'm just going from memory and haven't kept a log or anything.

I suppose there could be a situation where the actual value measures such and such, but tropical convection is behaving differently. Anyway, we have plenty of predicted 4-6 ahead of us, so let's see what the index actually does and how the atmosphere actually behaves.
 
Billypg70 said:
What I learned from Webber's post about what snows in our area is the MJO isn't irrelevant but it's also not the Holy Grail.
It can literally snow in any of those phases of timing is right.
Click to expand...
Pretty much that's correct. The chances are less in those phases though. The composites here likely focus on the overall pattern in general. Not that we can't time something and snow but I'm not sure any great pattern flip is coming a little after mid month. We are almost certain headed to phase 4 around the 15th which is the worst possible timing for that. It's not a torch pattern moving forward but the cutter pattern probably isn't going anywhere. Now when you get to Feb these stats do change and the MJO holds less influence.
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