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Pattern Jammin January 2024

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That may have been the most bleak run I've watched in a while. Ensembles look a little better. But, I don't have any high hopes rn.
 
SD said:
I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow in TN and Northern parts of Ms, AL, GA behind the big system this week. Those areas tend to do well in the CAA of these amped cutters the last few years
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Those big HPs coming down from the plains spin clockwise and Cad on the western slopes just like they do us when they are up in yankee land.
 
Pattern looks extremely favorable for a lot of wintry potential in the SE. After the 2 big Midwest storms coming up.. look out! That cold will spill down and then the potential for a decent overrunning event is there.

A pretty classic look overall.

I would be excited if I still lived in the SE ;)

Although I’ll be getting my own action here in southern Illinois!

Cheers.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
gefs looks really solid. Especially for the western SE. Don’t get the negativity
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Because don’t you know that the fun part of this hobby is to live and die with every model run 10+ days out… lol. Anyway, I agree with you, that’s a very good GEFS run and I very much think a winter storm is on the table in the 16-21st timeframe… especially for the western SE and the CAD regions in the Carolinas and NE Georgia
 
The GEFS snow mean (and highest members) was down significantly from 06z to 12z, I'm really interested to see what 18z holds
 
Snow means never come early in the SE .. almost every time..

Key is finding the cold air and the pattern that can support the winter weather. Then as you get closer is when you see things really start to perk up. That’s just how it goes. No need to panic lol..

Also this is before February .. and February I believe an even better pattern could be on the horizon.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Snow means never come early in the SE .. almost every time..

Key is finding the cold air and the pattern that can support the winter weather. Then as you get closer is when you see things really start to perk up. That’s just how it goes. No need to panic lol..

Also this is before February .. and February I believe an even better pattern could be on the horizon.
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This is especially true when it comes to overrunning events, like what we may see around mid-month.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is especially true when it comes to overrunning events, like what we may see around mid-month.
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You know looking at some of the event maps on your site, I can remember that a number of those southern slider/overrunning events occurred when there was no mention of snow by local mets until 1-2 days prior to the storm. 12/22-23/1993 is one example of that and more recently the 2/12-13/2010 storm was forecast to be nothing but a chance of flurries until 12 hours before the event started.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
we have ourselves a solid pattern coming up. But the weeklies just ran and I had to post this View attachment 140447
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Brief reshuffling around Jan 23-24 ish then we see the classic February Nino pattern appear w/ +PNA and a -NAO. Bulk of the warm-up in that time probably centered over New England
 
Chazwin said:
You know looking at some of the event maps on your site, I can remember that a number of those southern slider/overrunning events occurred when there was no mention of snow by local mets until 1-2 days prior to the storm. 12/22-23/1993 is one example of that and more recently the 2/12-13/2010 storm was forecast to be nothing but a chance of flurries until 12 hours before the event started.
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I think the February 12-13, 2010 storm was the same storm that model guidance kept suppressing the slp down to Cuba until about 48-72 hrs prior. I remember that was my early days of participating on weather forums. I think I was following/tracking that event on the Accuweather or Eastern/AmWx forums back then. Memory is kinda fuzzy outside of the meltdowns that happened over those suppressed model runs. ??
 
Weatherlover92 said:
I think the February 12-13, 2010 storm was the same storm that model guidance kept suppressing the slp down to Cuba until about 48-72 hrs prior. I remember that was my early days of participating on weather forums. I think I was following/tracking that event on the Accuweather or Eastern/AmWx forums back then. Memory is kinda fuzzy outside of the meltdowns that happened over those suppressed model runs. ??
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I remember that early in the week, the models were keeping most of the moisture along the I-10 corridor and south. Even still both JB and Frank Strait at Accu-weather were adamant in their blogs blogs and videos that it would end up being an I-40 to I-20 Storm which they ended up being right.
 
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