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Pattern Jammin January 2024

Snowfan said:
We should know by tonight’s NAM run if it’s on to something. Interestingly the FFC mentioned in the latest discussion some of the global ensembles are NAM like.
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I would start paying very close attention to the long range HRRR tonight. It will sniff out FGEN forcing better than any other model
 
Chazwin said:
I would start paying very close attention to the long range HRRR tonight. It will sniff out FGEN forcing better than any other model
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Probably wish casting on my part but it does seem to be picking up some convection on the leading edge of the precip as early as Wed afternoon around Montgomery. As you said, be interesting to see where it goes tonight.

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Chazwin said:
I would start paying very close attention to the long range HRRR tonight. It will sniff out FGEN forcing better than any other model
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The NAM struggled with the January 22 system with the precip shield and FGEN stuff too at this range so this is honestly isn’t surprising. Different setup but same variables
 
iGRXY said:
The NAM struggled with the January 22 system with the precip shield and FGEN stuff too at this range so this is honestly isn’t surprising. Different setup but same variables
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You’re right. Heck the 3kNAM lost the February 2021 system until about 5 hours or so before snow broke out in the Upstate…there were a number of people talking about what a joke the HRRR is, which it definitely has struggles on some stuff, but it’s the best at sniffing out a set up like this.
 
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This is going to be a nightmare of a forecast for DC and for myself. First thoughts for Roanoke is 4-8 inches of snow and sleet. Could be lots of sleet.
 
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