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Coldest GEFS run yet for next week
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Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pretty happy with the trends on the models overnight. If we can speed up the vortex just a little more, that’ll getmore folks potentially involved around Jan 15–16 and pushes the storm track a little more to the south.
Here is 00z vs 06z for Euro Control. 06z is colder with stronger Greenland block and sharper eastern trough. If it produced a storm, it would likely have been with a farther SE track. Incoming storm wave is along the west coast.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Coldest run yet on the GEFS.
0C 850 line nearly to Montgomery, AL and Macon, GA
0C 850 line nearly to Montgomery, AL and Macon, GA
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pretty telling how cold the GEFS thinks it may be around Jan 15-16.
Nearly every member has below freezing 850s along the I-40 corridor, and close to 70%, even down to I-20.
Nearly every member has below freezing 850s along the I-40 corridor, and close to 70%, even down to I-20.
GEFS 24hr snow product on SV trending south (last 7 runs with latest 06z run included)
Really good trends here. EPS continues to get colder and colder. Worth watching that energy in the pacific as well speeding up 
rburrel2
Member
Oh man, that 06z Euro run is sexy. Looks primed to sling the vortex further East and and South compared to 00z modeling,(thus strengthening and building the block further south). I really hope that's the trend on the 12z runs.
On this date in 1988
Trough slowly trending east and away from Seattle once we got the AK ridging to calm down...14-run trend loop on GEFS
We got exactly what we wanted with the greenland block becoming dominantTrough slowly trending east and away from Seattle once we got the AK ridging to calm down...14-run trend loop on GEFS
That Greenland block is stout
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Someday I hope we can combine these two; that'd be epic. Who knows, maybe this is the year.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
SHHHH? The models don't know that yet!
HugeSnowStick
Member
LOL, yeah, that's accurate, Toccoa and Elebrton get 0.
Shoot and trending toward ridging on the west coast to boot. Those height reversals over AK is insane.
SnowNiner
Member
Trough slowly trending east and away from Seattle once we got the AK ridging to calm down...14-run trend loop on GEFS
And what have we learned? Always complain and make satire threads about the western trough, and it'll come east. Lol. Thats a huge win there. The question I think that remains is will it come far enough east to act as a 50/50 to stop the cutters, and how long will the block hang around. It seems to evaporate rather quickly on yesterday's runs.
UNCSC
Member
Have a feeling this GFS run is going to be a nod towards EURO. Further vortex push, and just a little touch of suppression to keep it from cutting.
tennessee storm
Member
This run here going be a midsouth crush job … early still see what Happens
Favorable trend in the right places 
womp. They just don’t dig like they used to. Need it
Gonna have to find a way to mute that
This one did trend better for western areas of southeast. I-59 North and west 
Stormlover
Member
That's part sleet, and part freezing rain, and part snow
I don’t think there is a way anymore
We neee that big upper low over Hudson Bay to slide east. ?
quick general comment on the canadian. i think it has been huffing bath salts all winter and I have not been using it. hope there's some verification stats that can back that up
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I think that’s just its usual thing
it's been egregious this year; usually it's passable
I still think at this point all options are on the table. Sure, the SE ridge may turn this into another rain storm, but I would not be shocked if in two days we are more worried with suppression given the strength of the block. Big winter storm also possible for many, but as usual we always seem to find a way to miss out.
Gonna be funny when suppression is the concern and we'll be wishing for a little SER to help out..... sometimes it is a necessary evil.
I feel like its ensemble average is fine and useful....but yeah, the op run does weird things a lot of times at h5 in the 3-7 day period
Hey I will take it. A win is a win.
I’d like to see a composite of SE snowstorms where that ridge, even if not on top of us, was just off the coast of the Carolinas. Who got it?
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Looks like at least through 156, there's only very minor differences on the GEFS from 6z.
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Think this is gonna be a good run
Itryatgolf
Member
Do you have a few frames back you can post 156-168 hrs please
JLL1973
Member
JLL1973
Member
Your in a great spot