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Pattern Jammin January 2024

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Icon being hi-res and a warm bias at the surface, getting colder at 12Z run puts my interest quite a bit higher now.
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Catching up on lunch break today. But Glad you reminded everyone of this, who's not aware. This is always a good metric/valuable and proven toole to use, at least for onset of events when nitpicking surface and BL issues. If this model says you are cold enough at start, its a guarantee. I'd use only for the onset. Its no better than anything else for duration temp profiles, changeover times etc. Its always a notch warm biased
 
Life above the clouds. This is Beech mtn today. They are expierencing excellent conditions up there and plenty more snow on the way. Worth the trip if you have money, time. That snow under the chairlift is all natural

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Canadian beefed up totals at 12z across Triad. Quick hitter and Ill take .25-.35 usually avoid any problems. Its as you get close to .5 things really start snapping and popping. Shettley and Jimmy would be in dark under this scenerio

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Fro, Grit , QC,SD anyone get the EPS last night past day 10? Wondering if that lobe gets up under the block any further east toward the lakes region? Thanks in advance

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NCSNOW said:
Fro, Grit , QC,SD anyone get the EPS last night past day 10? Wondering if that lobe gets up under the block any further east toward the lakes region? Thanks in advance

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Hope this is more transient as not good for us in the se with that look
 
SnowNiner said:
It's underneath there. But still wants to dump cold out west.

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Ridging in Alaska, troughing ne of Hawaii and a west based -NAO should be perfect for a trough in the east. Yet there we are. I guess it's a smoothed out mean. Maybe a poorly tiled EPO ridge idk. But if that pattern still doesn't produce an east coast trough with staying power I don't know what will anymore.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
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Oh Canada eh? It really looks great, but I have a personal prejudice against the model. I think it's cold biased malarkey (I know ensembles are better, but meh). Hopefully it and the EPS is more right with the west based block in a couple weeks.

Even if the GEFS pulls one out and its MJO/forcing shown is correct, the -NAO and the 50/50 not being in a terrible spot may allow us to back into a cold Miller B scenario.

Nice to start January with generally conducive patterns for tracking.
 
SnowNiner said:
Oh Canada eh? It really looks great, but I have a personal prejudice against the model. I think it's cold biased malarkey (I know ensembles are better, but meh). Hopefully it and the EPS is more right with the west based block in a couple weeks.

Even if the GEFS pulls one out and its MJO/forcing shown is correct, the -NAO and the 50/50 not being in a terrible spot may allow us to back into a cold Miller B scenario.

Nice to start January with generally conducive patterns for tracking.
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You're giving the GEFS and its OP way too much credit.
 
iGRXY said:
You're giving the GEFS and its OP way too much credit.
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Maybe, but I don't think you can completely discount the GEFS argument in regard to the forcing it's showing, and what Fro showed above. It's got a strong pulse going in the Indian Ocean/bad phases that will want to pull the trough out west. EPS has the forcing too, but not as strong so that's likely the difference. Not smart enough to know which one is right, but it's usually the one that has less cold and snow in the SE. lol.

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