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Pattern Jammin January 2024

Really have to hope (for the 1st threat) that energy can dive SSE thru CA and into northern Baja area and then heads east. You don’t want it to get hooked by the northern branch. Also we really need more energy to move on shore in the west to track across while the blocks there. D8-14
 
deltadog03 said:
Really have to hope (for the 1st threat) that energy can dive SSE thru CA and into northern Baja area and then heads east. You don’t want it to get hooked by the northern branch. Also we really need more energy to move on shore in the west to track across while the blocks there. D8-14
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Have we had any storms in our past make a southeastern trend? Seems like every storm pulls northwest the closer wet get to storm the past few years
 
This doesn't look to me like a NC/SC/Ga storm except ,maybe a little ice, Ms,Tn/Al look to do okay with Tn being the big winner. That has been the normal for several years. Still time for the deprived areas but it will take a lot of changes to score east of the Smokies
 
MichaelJ said:
This doesn't look to me like a NC/SC/Ga storm except ,maybe a little ice, Ms,Tn/Al look to do okay with Tn being the big winner. That has been the normal for several years. Still time for the deprived areas but it will take a lot of changes to score east of the Smokies
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I’d expect a bit of a step down pattern but I agree that first one is likely not our storm
 
*Edit - Didn’t see the thread for this system. Please move - thanks!*

FFC already chirping about severe with the Friday system. Sheesh, what a start to 2024…

A potent negatively tilted shortwave will dig in from
the central Plains Friday with a surface low developing near the
ArkLaTex. This system appears to have a more favorable thermodynamic
profile with warm surface and dewpoint temperatures and MUCAPE
between 600-800 J/kg. The kinematics of the system also look
favorable for strong to severe storms with bulk shear up to 70+kt
and 0-3km SRH over 700+m2/s2. It`s a little too soon to be diving
into the exact details, but it does appear there is a strong signal
that this system will bring another round of severe weather to the
forecast area Friday afternoon.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
If we get something big it’s that pac trough pacific shortwave handoff and dipping of the northern stream. That look has been associated with some huge setups in the past View attachment 140621View attachment 140622
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We've made some good progress. The trough is dropping east of Seattle. The TPV is slowly trekking west to east across S Canada and underneatth a Greenland block that is trending stronger....and the TPV is pinwheeling there in SE Canada and not racing away.

The last piece I would like to see is for the block and TPV combo to start having more influence on the height pattern behind it, to where flow coming into that combo starts to slow down and back up a bit....sending the full height pattern south a bit and slowing it down

nBxeaCD.gif
 
Looks like she's about to cut into Tennessee. Definitely cold. -20s in the Dakotas and 0 in Chicago
 
This looks complexity different the northern stream calling the shots this run, might turn out to be flatter then previous runs, and more frontal
 
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