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Pattern Jammin January 2024

Happy Hour GFS has a conga line of cross-polar arctic highs. Now that's not something you'll see every day even on a 384-hour fantasy map.

gfs_mslpa_nhem_65.png
 
Looking at the EPS, this is somewhat uncharted territory for me. The western trough crud presents itself, but then the Atlantic ridge get on roids and reaches out west across canada and traps a big lobe of the TPV underneath it in SE canada, AND a -NAO. That'll work I think. Has that ever really happened before? A full conus trough with the TPV in SE canada?

GEFS however is more of what I'm afraid of, the Atlantic ridge doesn't reach all the way across, the western ridge tucks the western trough nicely on the west coast and freezes Seattle again. And pokes the SE ridge. :mad:

EPS is nice and I hope it happens. But I'm worried GEFS is right, because of course it would be. lol.

eps_z500a_nhem_57.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_57.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Looking at the EPS, this is somewhat uncharted territory for me. The western trough crud presents itself, but then the Atlantic ridge get on roids and reaches out west across canada and traps a big lobe of the TPV underneath it in SE canada, AND a -NAO. That'll work I think. Has that ever really happened before? A full conus trough with the TPV in SE canada?

GEFS however is more of what I'm afraid of, the Atlantic ridge doesn't reach all the way across, the western ridge tucks the western trough nicely on the west coast and freezes Seattle again. And pokes the SE ridge. :mad:

EPS is nice and I hope it happens. But I'm worried GEFS is right, because of course it would be. lol.

eps_z500a_nhem_57.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_57.png
Click to expand...
I know that there have been a few times that we’ve seen full conus troughs. The set up for the January 1988 storm did as there was a TPV that set up in SE Canada that supplied plenty of cold despite a -PNA, +AO, +NAO. The -AO/-NAO would help more. Honestly, with as active as the STJ has been with energy, I’m not very concerned about the SER flexing, at least for anything more than a couple days. I am glad to see though that the EPS is showing the better set up as opposed to the GEFS.
 
SnowNiner said:
Looking at the EPS, this is somewhat uncharted territory for me. The western trough crud presents itself, but then the Atlantic ridge get on roids and reaches out west across canada and traps a big lobe of the TPV underneath it in SE canada, AND a -NAO. That'll work I think. Has that ever really happened before? A full conus trough with the TPV in SE canada?

GEFS however is more of what I'm afraid of, the Atlantic ridge doesn't reach all the way across, the western ridge tucks the western trough nicely on the west coast and freezes Seattle again. And pokes the SE ridge. :mad:

EPS is nice and I hope it happens. But I'm worried GEFS is right, because of course it would be. lol.

eps_z500a_nhem_57.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_57.png
Click to expand...
GEFS stinks
 
SnowNiner said:
Looking at the EPS, this is somewhat uncharted territory for me. The western trough crud presents itself, but then the Atlantic ridge get on roids and reaches out west across canada and traps a big lobe of the TPV underneath it in SE canada, AND a -NAO. That'll work I think. Has that ever really happened before? A full conus trough with the TPV in SE canada?

GEFS however is more of what I'm afraid of, the Atlantic ridge doesn't reach all the way across, the western ridge tucks the western trough nicely on the west coast and freezes Seattle again. And pokes the SE ridge. :mad:

EPS is nice and I hope it happens. But I'm worried GEFS is right, because of course it would be. lol.

eps_z500a_nhem_57.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_57.png
Click to expand...
Yeah the GEFS has been playing catchup to the EPS and GEPS with this -NAO episode which I think is going to go pretty big. I just like the way it is forming, first with the ridge over Iceland out ahead of the upcoming winter storm next weekend (ahead of 50/50 low), then supplemented with the ridge over Greenland out ahead of the big Lakes cutter storm. No telling what happens after that. Falling AAM and MJO in P4 would favor more of a trough in the West or West-Central U.S., but strong El Nino would counter that idea.

3AU1j6j.gif
 
Arcc said:
Does it look like a official SSW event will happen again?
Click to expand...
Very low chance that an official SSW will occur here in early Jan, but there will be a noteworthy weakening...and weakening also in the lower stratosphere which will help with -NAO development. I think we'll make another run at an official SSW in early Feb or so
 
CMC is holding on with a legit CAD ice storm still. It’s held strong multiple runs in a row. 1/2” average on the FRAM in prime CAD areas of the upstate also. Really wish this was in the short range models range so I could see if it’s off that Bobby brown Saturday night special or if it’s catching something the Euro (I’ll never look at the GFS to sniff out any CAD potential) isn’t.
 
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