Canadian is a party pooper. I'd like to have seen it fall in line with the ICON and GFS. Hopefully, the EURO makes it 3 of four.
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Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
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The more that storm cuts Southeast, the more I believe it allows the Arctic air sitting on top to move into our area undercutting that storm. Which would feed into the next system, which would likely cut further South & East. Maybe not cutting at all.
That’s a little reminiscent of the cold outbreak on new years 2017/2018. I can remember models haven’t trouble with that. If I remember correctly we had a pesky SER showing up again and again and finally guidance decided that cold air back west was indeed going to move east and boy did it.
Worth noting I believe we were in or headed into a weak El Niño that winter.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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CMC and GFS trended oppositelyWow. This monster is actually trending SE.
Early jan 2018 I think was a nina, and actually one of the good examples that nina years aren’t so bad, early on
End of the CMC gets the blood flowing. Potential is there for something really big. Anything can happen when you pump and stretch those heights into Canada and towards the pole. Somebody not used to winning is gonna win. If we could get an Aleutian low churning during this timeframe ?
?
Interestingly the GFS MJO has it going back to phase 2 and then 3. 
GEFS is also moving things forward a bit too
Wow ?
Looks like a reflection of the pulse on the western side of the IO flaring up
Hard not to like the CMC Ens progression here. Slow moving TPV under the block that evolves into a 50/50 low type deal with storm waves crashing into Cali > Texas underneath. High pressure fanned out west to east up top with low pressure waviness in the Gulf
Looking good!
Here’s what the long range ICON has for temperatures at the end of the run. 
W
WSW
Guest
We just need it to move east a couple hundred miles.
Looks frontal for sure
Euro is a little bit slower so far. Still moving east 
RollTide18
Member
Would be a nice snowpack to help us out south of I-20 lord willing
W
WSW
Guest
True. Just so hard to get snow anywhere right now. Signs point to a change though.
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Looked like something rounding the base of the trof in oklahoma
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
With cold shot even remotely close to this and the southern stream being as active as it has been (per usual for a Nino), you gotta wonder if something is going to show up later in week 2.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The tail end of these big arctic blasts are usually when southern US overrunning events like to strike.
I'd be on the lookout for something once this cold shot begins to shift towards Atlantic Canada & New England late in week 2.
I'd be on the lookout for something once this cold shot begins to shift towards Atlantic Canada & New England late in week 2.
The models are doing a pretty bad job trying to hold consistency. Obviously the ENS are the best approach right now, but even then they are not handling the changes well. Another variation of model solutions again.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Good golly miss Molly.
The 12z ECMWF operational is definitely not out in left field in the extended.
The 12z ECMWF operational is definitely not out in left field in the extended.
When is your Tahoe trip Delta? Seems like you mentioned sometime soon. Keeping a close eye on things I'm sure
If that much snow actually does fall, that is gonna be blistering cold.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 12z EPS evolution is almost exactly what you want to see for a southern slider later in week 2.
NCSNOW
Member
Well we are crossing 10 day mark on pattern chase today. Better than day 15. Tommorow starts the journey to get it inside 5 days. At that point by the middle of the week, we will be chasing a 7 to 10 day out storm hopefully. IM PREDICITING SD has to start a storm thread by the end of this upcoming week for frozen. Meantime we get to clean up from straight line winds this Tuesday.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Gotta get that cold to actually slide east of the Apps though. It seems so hard to get that to happen anymore.
We are entering Banger territory folks..
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Watching the control(sort of like in a way you'd watch the long range gfs) and it just dropped the arctic hammer.
A beautiful run of the Euro Ensemble Mean rolling into the weather center
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Some snow action showing up on the EPS post cutter
Can clearly see the snowpack on the temp anom means. Wow 
But wait, there's more. Not one 1060 high, but two if you order right now!
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Sure seems like EPS is a good 24-36 hours quicker than the op.
Very soon. Looking all of y’all’s very good work and analysis on the pattern for sure. Jan 13-20. Hoping to line up a storm or 2. Some of the ENS members are off the chart, then like less than 6”. Lmao.
Agree, the Euro Control is good to look at...it just extends the Euro Op out some days as they are usually similar at Day 10.
And yeah, this Euro Ctrl run was a massive barney cold outbreak after the cutter which would be a one and done as it would wreck the GL block post cold outbreak as Fro has mentioned before
