The models, all of them, are struggling more than usual past day 7. We've seen this whenever a major pattern change is looming.
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Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
18z GFS continues the trend of pushing the cold air eastward.
Day 12:
Day 12:
packfan98
Moderator
Happy Hour is delivering the cold and digital snow for 1/19
Gfs makes -NAO the dominant block. Which is key
One run, but it’s what we want / need to see and not far-fetched at all if the Greenland Block can take the lead role
NSFW
lexxnchloe
Member
CltNative90
Member
Stormlover
Member
18Z GFS brings the goods...in two weeks
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Nice. Best part of this is Mack gets 10 inches while southern Iowa gets 41.
I will take this and call it a winter. Check please.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Picture. Perfect. Looks like the early ‘80s. If only…
Law of averages says we’re going to have a brutal stretch of winter coming sooner rather than later. Patience everyone. Jimmy guarantee 
NCSNOW
Member
Kudos to Grit and Fro pointing out the Greenland block being dominant player. If it happens id put the chances for my area at 80-85% + seeing accumulating snow, frozen mix. Nice window of opportunity if we win the battle of the ridges up north.
Flotown
Member
crazy thing is ,that looks scary like th euro control somebody posted yesterday18Z GFS brings the goods...in two weeks
NCSNOW
Member
GSO runing -2.6 so far this young January. Far cry from the +5.7 we ran Jan 23
We logged a +2.6 for Month of Dec. So for Met winter (D,J,F) we will be runing slightly BN temp wise after todays numbers are crunched in. Qpf is through the roof AN.
Sooner or latter the odds will work in our favor if this keeps up.
We logged a +2.6 for Month of Dec. So for Met winter (D,J,F) we will be runing slightly BN temp wise after todays numbers are crunched in. Qpf is through the roof AN.
Sooner or latter the odds will work in our favor if this keeps up.
dsaur
Member
Makes a world of difference if the cold air is pressing down instead of sliding across. Blocking for the win!
iGRXY
Member
Models flip flopping every other run as a pattern change looms? Call me shocked
Psalm 148:8
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This is fabulous!! Last few years we couldn’t even buy a fantasy run!!! BTW.. James Spann is encouraged by what he sees heading into the next 10-15 days!18Z GFS brings the goods...in two weeks
What now? Nonsense, that isn’t NSFW, if it verifies its NSFM because what our wives will do to us by spending so much time tracking that.
18z GFS does 2 things that the good model runs are doing. 1) The low/wave that drops down out of SW Canada on Jan 11 slides east of Seattle instead of plopping down right on top of them, and 2) The big cutter wave that subsequently comes out of the S Plains is strong, and it pumps ridging out ahead of it that reinforces the Greenland block as it gets stuck underneath it.
12z GFS does the opposite. Drops the wave on top of Seattle and has a weak wave coming out of the S Plains into the Great Lakes
12z GFS does the opposite. Drops the wave on top of Seattle and has a weak wave coming out of the S Plains into the Great Lakes
0z GFS looks like another positive trend regarding your first point. Dropping into Montana this run
This is really close to a phase. In any, much further east and on the move.
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Liking what I'm seeing with that cutter. Should make the -NAO ridge go nuts.This is really close to a phase. In any, much further east and on the move.
Lol 967 over lake Michigan
Let's see what happens with the next sw coming ashore in the Pac NW.
This would qualify as what we have asked for the last 4 years
good grief
someone is getting a historic storm lol (not us)
safest bet is to write off any long range stuff after this storm crescendos until we get better consensus on this beast. because how it evolves will be critical to how blocking progresses after
someone is getting a historic storm lol (not us)
safest bet is to write off any long range stuff after this storm crescendos until we get better consensus on this beast. because how it evolves will be critical to how blocking progresses after
What's a couple of thousand miles among friends anyway?
no doubt the run to run changes are laughable at best.good grief
someone is getting a historic storm lol (not us)
safest bet is to write off any long range stuff after this storm crescendos until we get better consensus on this beast. because how it evolves will be critical to how blocking progresses after
That block ? fun to dream
If that block doesn't kick out that'll be a massive snow storm around d10/11 on the gfs
Brent
Member
JLL1973
Member
Gfs could be a good run for the midsouth around 240 hours
Jeez. If this happens, I'm moving north.
