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Pattern Jammin January 2024

griteater said:
Yeah, Canadian is completely different. No idea which one is correct. Could easily say the one that gives us the SE ridge, but that doesn't feel like a good approach either.

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Canadian. Cmc model is usually a cold bias model longer range ….
 
Playing around the MJO archives below there is 3 nino's that have Jan path through 4-6. 2015, 2010 and 1983. All 3 became wintery/active after that path...so that's what I am hugging until March 1 and then it's bring on golf weather.


Below are the patterns after it left 4-6.

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KyloG said:
Playing around the MJO archives below there is 3 nino's that have Jan path through 4-6. 2015, 2010 and 1983. All 3 became wintery/active after that path...so that's what I am hugging until March 1 and then it's bring on golf weather.


Below are the patterns after it left 4-6.

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I've said a lot of ridiculous and negative things over the last 36 hours on here but I actually think the pattern at least on paper will look better to good in Feb. My biggest concern is where does to cold go over the next 16 days and what's available to stop the stj and lock in cold.
 
I get the pessimism and doubt here but many act like in years past we get wall to wall cold with snow twice a week. Yeah we’ve had some good years but I think the majority of my memories are one or two snows a winter. Mostly in late January to mid February. Maybe some Xanax prescriptions are in order for a lot of you.
 
jeremyt said:
I get the pessimism and doubt here but many act like in years past we get wall to wall cold with snow twice a week. Yeah we’ve had some good years but I think the majority of my memories are one or two snows a winter. Mostly in late January to mid February. Maybe some Xanax prescriptions are in order for a lot of you.
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a couple of legitimate shots of potential storms to track and cold with snow twice a season.

Fixed it for you. Literally nobody thinks we got wall to wall cold with snow twice a week, we just remember having some chances and it working out some times; hence the memories you speak of. The fact that most haven't even had anything to track in two years with nothing on the horizon is where the pessimism and doubt come from. Just perspective.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
a couple of legitimate shots of potential storms to track and cold with snow twice a season.

Fixed it for you. Literally nobody thinks we got wall to wall cold with snow twice a week, we just remember having some chances and it working out some times; hence the memories you speak of. The fact that most haven't even had anything to track in two years with nothing on the horizon is where the pessimism and doubt come from. Just perspective.
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I get it, I’m just saying that people are discouraged over models that can’t get 2m temps correct in a 6 hour future are worried about 7-14 day runs. Yep, it’s a weather board and that’s the topic at hand but it just seems a little ridiculous to live and die by each model run.
 
TileDude said:
There was another meteorologist in Bham back in early/mid December that was mentioning a big pattern change coming around 12/28. That one didn’t work out either.
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I wouldn’t call it a big pattern change but it did change from predominantly above average to around average around that date.
 
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