• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin January 2024

Rain Cold said:
This is good because they say the EPS has the best verification scores. If it was the GEFS, I would expect it to waffle around back to warm. But because we're laying snowpack and because we're moving into the favored time frame and because it's the EPS, we can probably start to breathe easy now.
Click to expand...
EPS has remained the most steady with the progression East also while the GEFS has wobbled back and forth.
 
Rain Cold said:
This is good because they say the EPS has the best verification scores. If it was the GEFS, I would expect it to waffle around back to warm. But because we're laying snowpack and because we're moving into the favored time frame and because it's the EPS, we can probably start to breathe easy now.
Click to expand...
Ok
 
12z EPS shows the cold air moving East with a reinforcing shot brewing in Canada at Day 10. Past day 10, it shows the entire lower 48 below average temperature wise.. In mid January. Long range models sniffed out the Western trough back in the 300s as far as hours out & hasn't let up since. Now we see how far East it gets as this will be a cross polar flow instead of what we are seeing right now temperature wise. A true cold air source.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t2m_f_anom-1704024000-1704542400-1704909600-10.gif
 
Mitch West said:
12z EPS shows the cold air moving East with a reinforcing shot brewing in Canada at Day 10. Past day 10, it shows the entire lower 48 below average temperature wise.. In mid January. Long range models sniffed out the Western trough back in the 300s as far as hours out & hasn't let up since. Now we see how far East it gets as this will be a cross polar flow instead of what we are seeing right now temperature wise. A true cold air source.
View attachment 139568
Click to expand...
Burn Alaska, burn!
 
Rain Cold said:
This is good because they say the EPS has the best verification scores. If it was the GEFS, I would expect it to waffle around back to warm. But because we're laying snowpack and because we're moving into the favored time frame and because it's the EPS, we can probably start to breathe easy now.
Click to expand...
I think you need a hug
 
GoDuke said:
You must not have a mother in law visiting for the holidays from Florida who thinks she owns the place. Mine has hijacked the thermostat.
Click to expand...
I went back to San Diego one Christmas and the high was 60 and everybody was in huge jackets and hoodies like it was 20 below. I think it was in 2010 when the highs in Nashville were barely hitting the 20s for a few days. They say the air has bite in it at night when the lows hit 45 ?
 
Easy to see the differences on the ens. EPS/GEPS weakens the strong MJO pulse over the IO while GEFS keeps it going strongly, and really overall suppresses the Nino Influence over the tropical pacific with subsidence

GEFS7EE63ADC-816F-4F02-B4B6-B55115DC3F83.png40B3D29F-0ABC-47F2-9ED3-4193D38131BA.png

CMC ens E58AB7EB-EF8C-407A-AB73-4359D1CB12CE.pngAAA2DFCF-6C61-43A4-9385-0C16F76D24AE.png

EPS 8AF5A30F-D270-4E43-8C4E-0777D7E835FB.png3B0275AE-2581-4158-B3A4-8FB43FA1715D.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top