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Pattern Jammin January 2023

GFS has some snow in northern NC

gfs_asnow_us_51.png
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Word from JB-
January 3, 2022

I'm in a State of Confusion by the disagreement between each model's MJO and surface temperature forecasts.

Originally our idea for January was that the warm MJO signals would bring the end of winter after the colder start. The years 1951,1990, and 2006 served as analogs for this.
The analogs above are very close to the recent CFSv2 forecasts:
When I saw that the MJO is in fact staying away from the warm phases, I realized the premise was incorrect. This is why I believe the pattern will cool down significantly after the first ten days.
As I said though, the confusing part is that models' MJO forecasts are becoming stronger into cold phases, while their United States temperature forecasts continue to be warm.
All these forecasts bring us to Phase 8 by Week 2, which is a strong indicator for cold, yet surface temperature forecasts are still extremely warm.

My take is that the pattern will shift to cold, as ridging breaks down over the Eastern United States and the ridge sets up back over Western Canada. I simply don't see how we can see a warm pattern with such a strong cold signal in the MJO.



But for now either me or the models are in a State of confusion
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I personally put more weight into the MJO than anything else when it comes to cold. We shall see.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Teleconnections are awful after mid month. NAO remains positive. AO goes toward positive and PNA heads toward negative.
Spin it however you will the MJO is all that's good..can it win out or do we blow phase 8 like we blew the -NAO?
ATTACH=full]129289[/ATTACH]View attachment 129290View attachment 129291View attachment 129292
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The MJO is only lessening the amount of warmth we actually could be seeing if it wasn’t in the western hemisphere right now. Not a good sign when it comes around the Maritime Continent in Feb
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
And they say people in the south overreact and can’t drive in those conditions ?
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Lol! They shut down the main road through Iowa around me. HWY 20
The problem is everybody thinks they are experts cause they lived up here their whole life! But ice is always trouble anywhere! Currently 31, drizzle! They have delayed and closed a lot of schools due to this!
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
CAE about to get buried today based on this radar and trajectory, flooding very probable. Stay safe everyone.

SOUTHEAST_loop.gif
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I can confirm those red hues mean business. It’s like a waterfall. No moisture robbing convection to the south and it’s unloading gulf moisture.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
CAE about to get buried today based on this radar and trajectory, flooding very probable. Stay safe everyone.

SOUTHEAST_loop.gif



Edit to add these 24 hour totals from GSP as of 7am. Lots of street flooding in the upstate this am.

GSPDailyPrecip.png
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Multiple tornado warnings on that line near Columbia, SC.

The other cell near Lugoff is starting to look conspicuous too

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Just a quick update after scanning the data this morning:

We continue to look to have a 30 to 45 minute window around Jan 29 for a short fuse snowstorm. After that, the combination of the strongest SPV on record, coming out of a Super Nino into a fading Nina pattern during peak Nina warm signal winter climo, along with the MJO going into Phase 5 and a 6×10^-4 MT event will give us a good shot at mid 80s to around 90 for the balance of the winter. No need to throw in the towel just yet, though. After the pattern burnout in late March, the end of the month or early April should offer up another excellent window for a wet snow. Cheers
 
There is some mild ensemble support, esp on the CMCE, it’s nowhere near as weenie, but the pattern is very Miller B esque, weak SE Canada vortex, higher heights in between, southern stream wave. A basic CAD/Miller B look. need to trend to a stronger SE Canada vortex. Way to do that is slow down the pacific trough/build higher heights in central canada to encourage more northern stream digging, which is very much possible, and amp up the vortex so it slows a bit. The biggest problem i see here is, in this progressive pattern, there’s nothing to keep it in place, so this is something that would have to be perfect timing 0677571E-F4DC-4D21-AD62-59C8B9737FF8.png0FA7D34B-0CFA-4784-8A21-8518435C1EFC.png
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
There is some mild ensemble support, esp on the CMCE, it’s nowhere near as weenie, but the pattern is very Miller B esque, weak SE Canada vortex, higher heights in between, southern stream wave. A basic CAD/Miller B look. need to trend to a stronger SE Canada vortex. Way to do that is slow down the pacific trough/build higher heights in central canada to encourage more northern stream digging, which is very much possible. The biggest problem i see here is, in this progressive pattern, there’s nothing to keep it in place, so this is something that would have to be perfect timing View attachment 129315View attachment 129316
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If we had this inside 36 hours it would still be extremely suspect. I think this pattern is priming for a big mid month Appalachian snow. Active southern stream with east coast ridging hanging around and marginal cold. This is when the big dogs like to eat.
 
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