Pattern Jammin January 2023

[iGRXY]

It's very close. Temps are in the mid to upper 30's so it's not like we need crazy changes either.

 

[Metwannabe]

971 mb off NE coast, yep bombs away

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

It's probably going to bomb up the EC if I had to guess

Good "guess".

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Deform band for the win

 

[Metwannabe]

Tried to setup a nice deform band but marginal temps. This is doable though

 

[Metwannabe]

 

[BullCityWx]

If you get that actual look with a deform band and lift, I’m not concerned with anything else

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Tried to setup a nice deform band but marginal temps. This is doable though

Euro has been consistent in wanting to shunt these storms off our coast and up.. while and GFS and CMC have been stead fast on cutting .. I’d have to assume someone’s missing something here. Thinking maybe the key is the amount of blocking shown on the models is the biggest difference I can tell

 

[Metwannabe]

Obviously take the snowfall totals with a huge grain of salt, marginal temps and that is what falls not what accums, also probably lots of mixing issues. But we got time to reel this one in, we can get one this year can't we?!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Euro has been consistent in wanting to shunt these storms off our coast and up.. while and GFS and CMC have been stead fast on cutting .. I’d have to assume someone’s missing something here. Thinking maybe the key is the amount of blocking shown on the models is the biggest difference I can tell

And western ridging of course vs keeping energy in the west which buffs up the SER

 

[SD]

If you get that actual look with a deform band and lift, I’m not concerned with anything else

850 low was inside of 17, that would take the US1 corridor out but up your way you'd be sitting in a decent spot

 

[Metwannabe]

Euro has been consistent in wanting to shunt these storms off our coast and up.. while and GFS and CMC have been stead fast on cutting .. I’d have to assume someone’s missing something here. Thinking maybe the key is the amount of blocking shown on the models is the biggest difference I can tell

Blocking shows first and surface reflection shows later, always been the case.... if the blocking continues to come in strong on future model runs, you will see wild swings

 

[SD]

If the Euro was right the energy coming down through the dakotas would be where I would be focusing. We would need it stronger with the trough axis off shore but the pattern seems flat enough in the east it might give it a go

 

[Chazwin]

Getting rid of that early phase could make dreams come true

Very doable at this range. Only needs to phase about 12 hours later

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Man that pattern progression on the euro looks good so far, that’s the biggest takeaway this run so far

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Jail break!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s hot, beautifully placed western ridge

 

[SD]

Jail break!

Yep euro was about to drop the arctic hammer at D10 pulls that wave out of the arctic circle

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Man that pattern progression on the euro looks good so far, that’s the biggest takeaway this run so far View attachment 130570View attachment 130571

Man, that's a straight-up cross-polar flow...and I'd love to have a couple more fantasy panels to see how deep that Saskatchewan screamer digs.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro is that hockey stick progression