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Pattern Jammin January 2023

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Sorry guys I'm not biting. That probably doesn't surprise most here. But until the teles improve I'm skeptical. NAO is neutral, AO is volatile, some deep negative members but more are positive. So neutral seems like a good bet for now. PNA falls off a cliff end of the month, very bad. Finally the MJO seems to want to make a run at phase 4. We can have most teles in our favor and still torch obviously but can we have most teles against us and end up cold? Probably not but we'll see.
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Oh yeah, it’s coming, but trying to eek something out in 4-5 day period toward end of Jan
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Sorry guys I'm not biting. That probably doesn't surprise most here. But until the teles improve I'm skeptical. NAO is neutral, AO is volatile, some deep negative members but more are positive. So neutral seems like a good bet for now. PNA falls off a cliff end of the month, very bad. Finally the MJO seems to want to make a run at phase 4. We can have most teles in our favor and still torch obviously but can we have most teles against us and end up cold? Probably not but we'll see.
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The teleconnections have actually improved their look the last couple days. IMO the opportunity for something to happen is sometime between the 22nd and 30th. There’s a period where the PNA is falling to around neutral and the MJO is high amp in phase 2… a small window that everything has to be timed right, but if it does the reward could be big. As for the NAO, i really like what I’m seeing there and think we may be able to go into an extended period of negative which as Webb mentioned could pay big dividends late in February as everything cycles back around
 
NCSNOW said:
High 49 today. Already 24th wettest January on record here and a lot more to come.

Been an el nino winter here, most of it. Regardless of what official charts say. California getting drenched every 3 to 5 days
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Exactly
When we've been dry for 5 days my back yard is still like walking around on a wet sponge.
When we've had rain. My backyard is like a pond on a hill.
It's been much more El Nino like that not.
I never ever remember a La Nina this wet.
Which proves other drivers often drive sensible daily weather.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
never thought I’d see the trend of having less dumping of energy out west. But this is what the euro has been showing for a while now. View attachment 130587
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It looks to me like models are trending to a stronger Aleutian low during this timeframe which in turn is pumping up the western ridge.
 
500h_anom.nh.png
 
I still think western areas like TX, Arkansas, Northern Louisiana, Central/Northern Mississippi, West Tennessee, maybe Northern Alabama, and CAD favorable areas of NEGA, Upstate SC, and central/western NC have the best shot to score something in the next 2 weeks. Both also have an easier path to victory and more than 1 way to score right now. Either way the pattern favors big mix bag type of storms with large swaths of snow, sleet, and ZR if you're going to get something.
 
iGRXY said:
I still think western areas like TX, Arkansas, Northern Louisiana, Central/Northern Mississippi, West Tennessee, maybe Northern Alabama, and CAD favorable areas of NEGA, Upstate SC, and central/western NC have the best shot to score something in the next 2 weeks. Both also have an easier path to victory and more than 1 way to score right now. Either way the pattern favors big mix bag type of storms with large swaths of snow, sleet, and ZR if you're going to get something.
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West TN scores biggly on Euro in 5 days
 
iGRXY said:
I still think western areas like TX, Arkansas, Northern Louisiana, Central/Northern Mississippi, West Tennessee, maybe Northern Alabama, and CAD favorable areas of NEGA, Upstate SC, and central/western NC have the best shot to score something in the next 2 weeks. Both also have an easier path to victory and more than 1 way to score right now. Either way the pattern favors big mix bag type of storms with large swaths of snow, sleet, and ZR if you're going to get something.
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Reeks of 37° and rain for I-20 corridor


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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