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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Gfs and GEFS start breaking down the ridging towards the end of the run. So there’s that. For all the AN values we’ve seen the past decade I’d expect our normal values to be much higher than they are.


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This is a workable look if we can get some energy to eject out of the SW.
 
The pattern on the overnight models and the 12z gefs so far is good but not great. We are certainly in the game for at least a short period of time but objectively the window to miss via early phase or shearing something into oblivion is larger than the window to overrun the likely cool enough air mass or phase perfectly. We may be waiting for our threat until around1/30- 2/2 when the pacific relaxes and we arent driving the sfc high deep into the region to get something but then you are fighting the SER response and it's miller b time. You can see the gefs heating up id supect there are some decent looking individual members thengfs-ens_apcpn24_us_49.png
 
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