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Tropical Hurricane Zeta

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Though it may be a little too low, FFC NWS map of highest gusts for ATL metro of 35-40 looks more likely to verify to me than the map posted here on the previous page that Ella Dorsey put out, that has gusts way up into the 50s and 60s, which would be similar to Opal. I experienced Opal and it was very bad. I’m not trying to minimize the 35-40 as that would be plenty enough for dangerous falling trees/limbs as well as lots of power outages. But I just think the Opal like 50s to 60s seems a bit much and may be based on models that tend to overdo these. Similar to Opal, Zeta will be moving very rapidly and likely even faster. That’s bad news as that will prevent that much weakening of the storm by the time it gets to the area. And there is the concern about extratropical energy being added. But remember that Opal was a cat 3 H when it made landfall and was still a cat 1 H when it was well up into AL. Zeta is expected to be only a cat 1 H at landfall and will weaken somewhat when going inland.
Make no mistake, this will be a big wx event though.

My forecast is for highest KATL wind gusts to be near 45, which is higher than the NWS’ 35-40 but lower than Ella Dorsey’s 54. There will be many trees and large limbs down along with lots of outages.

Any other predictions for KATL?

Edit: Now if Zeta landfalls as a cat 2 instead of cat1, then it may be close to an Opal for ATL.
 
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Though it may be a little too low, FFC NWS map of highest gusts for ATL metro of 35-40 looks more likely to verify to me than the map posted here on the previous page that Ella Dorsey put out, that has gusts way up into the 50s and 60s, which would be similar to Opal. I experienced Opal and it was very bad. I’m not trying to minimize the 35-40 as that would be plenty enough for dangerous falling trees/limbs as well as lots of power outages. But I just think the Opal like 50s to 60s seems a bit much and may be based on models that tend to overdo these. Similar to Opal, Zeta will be moving very rapidly and likely even faster. That’s bad news as that will prevent that much weakening of the storm by the time it gets to the area. And there is the concern about extratropical energy being added. But remember that Opal was a cat 3 H when it made landfall and was still a cat 1 H when it was well up into AL. Zeta is expected to be only a cat 1 H at landfall and will weaken somewhat when going inland.
Make no mistake, this will be a big wx event though.

My forecast is for highest KATL wind gusts to be near 45, which is higher than the NWS’ 35-40 but lower than Ella Dorsey’s 54. There will be many trees and large limbs down along with lots of outages.

Any other predictions for KATL?
I predict 53 for KATL
 
Though it may be a little too low, FFC NWS map of highest gusts for ATL metro of 35-40 looks more likely to verify to me than the map posted here on the previous page that Ella Dorsey put out, that has gusts way up into the 50s and 60s, which would be similar to Opal. I experienced Opal and it was very bad. I’m not trying to minimize the 35-40 as that would be plenty enough for dangerous falling trees/limbs as well as lots of power outages. But I just think the Opal like 50s to 60s seems a bit much and may be based on models that tend to overdo these. Similar to Opal, Zeta will be moving very rapidly and likely even faster. That’s bad news as that will prevent that much weakening of the storm by the time it gets to the area. And there is the concern about extratropical energy being added. But remember that Opal was a cat 3 H when it made landfall and was still a cat 1 H when it was well up into AL. Zeta is expected to be only a cat 1 H at landfall and will weaken somewhat when going inland.
Make no mistake, this will be a big wx event though.

My forecast is for highest KATL wind gusts to be near 45, which is higher than the NWS’ 35-40 but lower than Ella Dorsey’s 54. There will be many trees and large limbs down along with lots of outages.

Any other predictions for KATL?

Edit: Now if Zeta landfalls as a cat 2 instead of cat1, then it may be close to an Opal for ATL.
I agree that I doubt we see something as insane as Opal here. The Euro showing up to 70 yesterday here I know is overblown. I say the max however for gusts would be 60 mph. Now that I have a proper weather station set up I'll be able to record what we get exactly here as compared with Irma where I just had to guess.
 
HMON and HWRF are weaker at landfall, yet still yield pretty much the same result. That said the HWRF is a tick west.
 
HWRF 12z run would be bad for New Orleans. Center heading NE at a good pace just west of the city, putting the highest winds in the city.
 
I agree that I doubt we see something as insane as Opal here. The Euro showing up to 70 yesterday here I know is overblown. I say the max however for gusts would be 60 mph. Now that I have a proper weather station set up I'll be able to record what we get exactly here as compared with Irma where I just had to guess.


Those products always seem to be quite over-blown. I would imagine that you have to multiply the output by .4 or so to get a better idea of what to expect.
 
Huge difference in wind gust forecast from Spann and the NWS. Spann says gusts 45-50 in South AL and NWS says 65 mph gusts.Screenshot_2020-10-27-16-26-56~2.png
 
New track shifted slightly west at landfall. Still forecast to move quickly to the northeast after landfall. Quick movement could make things windier farther inland than otherwise.
 
It’s expected to get to cat 1. But I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a 100mph cane


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This place is pretty quiet all things considered


I was about to say the same thing. Not to take away the concerns of any coastal folks on the board, but when you're in metro Atlanta and the last 3 rain events have resulted in 4-6 inch instances of rainfall with the ground still juiced from Saturday, we could be in for a rude awakening.
 
Anyone think TS Watches will make it into the Upstate?

That’s what I’m wondering. If I had to guess right now I’d say probably not. Most likely a wind advisory or high wind warning. Gsp hasn’t issued tropical storm watches for upstate sc since I believe Hugo I could be wrong though


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I don't why they even issued one for Atlanta, honestly. It's gusts, not sustained winds. Which is by definition what warrants a TS watch/warning. A wind advisory/ and flood watch would of have been sufficient enough.
I think the watch is more in case the winds are stronger when it comes inland and they're saying 20 to 30 sustained right now. Models may be right about it being slightly stronger or may be too strong.
 
It's ironic TWC is forecasting stronger sustained winds here than the NWS. They've been forecasting 25-35mph, gust over 40mph for a couple days now. I think they revised down because I think I remember seeing 30-40mph for Thursday yesterday.

I don't why they even issued one for Atlanta, honestly. It's gusts, not sustained winds. Which is by definition what warrants a TS watch/warning. A wind advisory/ and flood watch would of have been sufficient enough.

I was thinking the same thing. Does High Wind Watches/Warnings not exist anymore?

EDIT: Nevermind, I got my answer right here. ?
 
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