Tropical Hurricane Zeta

[Shaggy]

Icon was a touch west at 0z.

 

[Brent]

We have Zeta which technically ties the record from 2005(there was an unnamed storm later in postseason)

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ZETA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

 

[GaWx]

We have Zeta which ties the record from 2005(there was an unnamed storm later in postseason)

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ZETA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

And ironically, the new UKMET is much weaker and doesn't ever get it stronger than a TD/1003 mb!! ?

Also, it is much further west and falls apart before landfall below W LA:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 83.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.10.2020 0 18.8N 83.6W 1005 25
1200UTC 25.10.2020 12 19.2N 83.1W 1006 26
0000UTC 26.10.2020 24 19.5N 83.7W 1004 25
1200UTC 26.10.2020 36 20.0N 84.6W 1004 26
0000UTC 27.10.2020 48 20.7N 86.0W 1004 26
1200UTC 27.10.2020 60 22.2N 88.2W 1005 29
0000UTC 28.10.2020 72 23.5N 90.5W 1004 31
1200UTC 28.10.2020 84 25.6N 92.6W 1004 32
0000UTC 29.10.2020 96 28.7N 93.0W 1003 33
1200UTC 29.10.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

 

[GaWx]

We have Zeta which technically ties the record from 2005(there was an unnamed storm later in postseason)

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ZETA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

I'm reading elsewhere (as you also may be) that a center relocation may be happening. If so, that could throw a big wrench in the projected timing and track. Some folks are fwiw already starting to compare this uncertainty to Mitch of 1998, which was not predicted well and unexpectedly kept going west into C America causing massive damage there.

 

[Brent]

Well for now the HWRF is also showing significant weakening and very lopsided appearance as it landfalls the center is near Mobile here

 

[GaWx]

The 0Z Euro is still another run into C LA (as a TS). This run is even faster with a LF already by late Wed afternoon. That seems too fast.

 

[Tarheel1]

6z GFS hammers NEGA and Carolinas with rain from Zeta remnants!

 

[NoSnowJoe]

Track is a little further East today.

 

[gawxnative]

Track is a little further East today.
View attachment 50989

Yes and to be honest, I am a bit "gun shy" after the effects of Delta around here.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Brent]

...ZETA STRONGER...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 83.4W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

 

[Jessy89]

This ones got my attention! Even if it’s a cat 1 hitting Louisiana. 24hrs from landfall it’s a tropical depression in Kentucky. This could bring tropical storm guest for a lot of people from Georgia and the Carolinas plus tornadoes. This could be a big deal


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[NoSnowJoe]

 

[Chazwin]

This ones got my attention! Even if it’s a cat 1 hitting Louisiana. 24hrs from landfall it’s a tropical depression in Kentucky. This could bring tropical storm guest for a lot of people from Georgia and the Carolinas plus tornadoes. This could be a big deal


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I agree. This merging with a strong cold front and upper low could certainly be a recipe for widespread flooding and potentially damaging winds

 

[Brent]

Up to 60 mph and looking good on satellite I wonder if it's gonna try to RI this is the same area Delta did

 

[Jessy89]

When this thing hits Louisiana that front is gonna accelerate zeta. From southern Mississippi to northern Virginia in 24hrs. Louisiana to Georgia to the Carolinas I think gonna have some pretty gusty winds. Possibly power outages and trees down isolated tornadoes with so much wind energy. It’s not only zeta it’s a strong cold front to.


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[accu35]

Up to 60 mph and looking good on satellite I wonder if it's gonna try to RI this is the same area Delta didView attachment 51008

Honestly I wouldn't be suprise to see an uptick in the intensity with the models soon. Even at landfall

 

[Brent]

Honestly I wouldn't be suprise to see an uptick in the intensity with the models soon. Even at landfall

The gulf shouldn't be as favorable kind of like Delta but the big question is what does it come off the Yucatan looking like

The NHC is up to an 85 mph peak now

 

[Showmeyourtds]

6z Goofus shows some major rain dumpage along and east of the trajectory. I-65, I-20 & I-85 corridors look to see another 3-5in event. The autumn rains have been measured in multi-inch events around here so far this season.

 

[Chazwin]

The gulf shouldn't be as favorable kind of like Delta but the big question is what does it come off the Yucatan looking like

The NHC is up to an 85 mph peak now

With the trough coming in and the upper low to the west of it as it approaches, I wonder if this might start converting to extra-tropical even as its making landfall. If it does, that could help it hold some of its strength longer and further inland