Tropical Hurricane Zeta

[gawxnative]

The GFS holds a 50-65knt 925mb wind field on the S and SE side of the circulation all the way through the Carolinas, that would mean surface gust to 35-50 certainly possible if it was efficient at mixing those down....

Just checked GFS point forcast for me.. 22kts 10m, 59 kts 925mb, 79 kts at 850 mb. Not good (Oh and 3 hour rainfall of 2.47". urgh

 

[Brent]

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

View attachment 51059

North Georgia and the Carolinas May get hammered

 

[Jessy89]

Anyone know the current water temps in the gulf


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jessy89]

North Georgia and the Carolinas May get hammered

If it still looks like this around Wednesday might need to buy essential items. And prepare for power outages.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ryan1234]

If it still looks like this around Wednesday might need to buy essential items. And prepare for power outages.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We will have to act sooner than that. I’m surprised that a lot of the local media outlets are kinda downplaying this storm thus far.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jessy89]

We will have to act sooner than that. I’m surprised that a lot of the local media outlets are kinda downplaying this storm thus far.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Even NHC is downplaying it by showing it as a depression around Georgia upstate sc. models actually seem to be trending a bit stronger with slight chance of car 2 at landfall


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

“ZETA now a hurricane and it’s projected path remains consistent. I don’t like this scenario one bit. Could be bad for us. I am off today and tomorrow but will be back Wed and and We will be there for you every step of the way.”
Glenn burns on FB. Also said he’s worried about tornadoes

 

[Andy Hamachek]

“ZETA now a hurricane and it’s projected path remains consistent. I don’t like this scenario one bit. Could be bad for us. I am off today and tomorrow but will be back Wed and and We will be there for you every step of the way.”
Glenn burns on FB. Also said he’s worried about tornadoes

How will it be bad ??? for us in Georgia (barrow county)

 

[Jessy89]

How will it be bad ??? for us in Georgia (barrow county)

40-60mph wind guest 2-4 inches of rain and isolated tornadoes


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

How will it be bad ??? for us in Georgia (barrow county)

I don’t think it’ll be awful. But a lot of rain. Being of the east side of the eye always has severe weather. Lots of rain and high wind gusts mean we will lose trees.

 

[SD]

Gfs is breezy

 

[Downeastnc]

View attachment 51060

Gfs is breezy

60-70 knts 1800 ft up......

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Mtns of NC, SC, and GA better hold on.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nc/gust_swath_mph/1603713600/1604037600-et1P1AM2XPk.png

I’ve always heard that the wind speeds are a bit over blown on these products. Is that still the case or have they been improved recently? Always heard you can take 30-50% off of these and get a more realistic idea of what to expect.

 

[SD]

60-70 knts 1800 ft up......

Only 18 hrs after landfall too. Hard to believe it rolls through east of the mountains dry for us. I think there is some concern here that we can get a band or 2 of convection rolling through that taps the wind in the 850/925 layers

 

[SD]

Soundings are just so blah around here. Meager lapse rates, low cape just not enough to really get much going. Probably a good thing this isn't a few weeks ago where we could generate more sb instability

 

[Arcc]

View attachment 51060

Gfs is breezy

Hello power outage. My power here blinks in rain and a slight breeze.

 

[JHS]

Only 18 hrs after landfall too. Hard to believe it rolls through east of the mountains dry for us. I think there is some concern here that we can get a band or 2 of convection rolling through that taps the wind in the 850/925 layers

The Raleigh NWS says most of the rain will be to the left of the track this time because of interaction with another feature. They are going with 2 inches of rain up near the VA border to to around .50 near FAY. They have RDU around an inch.

 

[Henry2326]

18z HWRF

 

[Arcc]

18z HWRF

View attachment 51065

Holy crap. Power definitely out.

Edit: This is 850mb so everyone knows, but that is still high wind gusts at the surface.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Soundings are just so blah around here. Meager lapse rates, low cape just not enough to really get much going. Probably a good thing this isn't a few weeks ago where we could generate more sb instabilityView attachment 51061

Yeah that’s some awful cape, interesting thing tho is that the gfs moves the TC out in time for the next main system to move thru with its own severe, it’s kinda by itself with that solution however, looks like this TC may possibly save us from a more high end severe event by contaminating the warm sector with putrid lapse rates, clouds and rain

 

[ForsythSnow]

Holy crap. Power definitely out.

Edit: This is 850mb so everyone knows, but that is still high wind gusts at the surface.

View attachment 51068

This is the next frame for Georgia. Absolutely terrifying 100 knot winds blowing around aloft. Some of those gusts would easily be around 70 or 80 mph if that verified. I doubt it will but I don't like seeing insane winds from other models outside the Euro.

 

[SETNwx]

Mountains in N Ga, Western Carolina are gonna get Opal-ed again...

 

[Jessy89]

Mountains in N Ga, Western Carolina are gonna get Opal-ed again...

Remind me what did opel do?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[NewnanWetather]

Remind me what did opel do?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I lived through Opal and it was awful. Winds got up above 60 in many parts of West Ga. I could easily see something similar happening this time.

 

[SETNwx]

Remind me what did opel do?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It caused a lot of mountain wind damage.

 

[Snow_chaser]

Wasn’t opal moving so fast that she was still a hurricane in Atlanta area? Can’t remember, but remember trees down and power out in Kennesaw

 

[EmersonGA]

Remind me what did opel do?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I’ve never seen so many limbs down so quick. It was like one massive low grade tornado and the power stayed out for a long time.

 

[NoSnowJoe]

Wasn’t opal moving so fast that she was still a hurricane in Atlanta area? Can’t remember, but remember trees down and power out in Kennesaw

My sister And her family lived in rural Meriweather County and they were without power for 6 weeks, crazy.

 

[NewnanWetather]

Wasn’t opal moving so fast that she was still a hurricane in Atlanta area? Can’t remember, but remember trees down and power out in Kennesaw

Yes some areas did see hurricane winds.

 

[Brent]

Yes some areas did see hurricane winds.

Yeah Opal was horrible we were in East Alabama then west of Lagrange and I had never seen wind like that before

I was only 7 but there were so many trees and power lines down I can still remember it

 

[Arcc]

Yeah Opal was horrible we were in East Alabama then west of Lagrange and I had never seen wind like that before

I was only 7 but there were so many trees and power lines down I can still remember it

Absolutely. The roar of the wind that night and the widespread tree damage is un-rivaled in my lifetime in this area.

 

[JHS]

We had better hope this thing does not get any stronger than forecast or we may be looking at a real problem. Like ATL with Opal or maybe CLT with Hugo. This storm will be racing once it is inland. As it is, the I-85 corridor may or may not be in for a rough time but it looks almost like a slam dunk above about 1000 feet in GA and both Carolinas. Of course if this storm goes crazy then all bets are off.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I doubt we see an Opal just due to it being a weaker storm. I do expect winds here to be shorter than what we had back with Irma but slightly less intense.

 

[Arcc]

This is the next frame for Georgia. Absolutely terrifying 100 knot winds blowing around aloft. Some of those gusts would easily be around 70 or 80 mph if that verified. I doubt it will but I don't like seeing insane winds from other models outside the Euro.
View attachment 51071

Keeping that East and NE eyewall band is highly reminiscent of Opal. With the trees still having leaves and the over performing system this past weekend, that is a devastating look.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Keeping that East and NE eyewall band is highly reminiscent of Opal. With the trees still having leaves and the over performing system this past weekend, that is a devastating look.

We will have to keep track of how strong Zeta gets in the gulf. That will ultimately determine if we see something that severe. If the eyewall portion remains it'll likely be moderate TS winds though AL and weak TS into GA.

 

[Brent]

Yeah to be fair Opal was a Cat 3 at landfall(scarily enough it had weakened from almost a 5 the day before)

We'll see how strong Zeta gets

 

[Jessy89]

This one could approach borderline cat 2. 100mph would be the ceiling I think


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

10PM PACKET

 

[ontherocks]

I doubt we see an Opal just due to it being a weaker storm. I do expect winds here to be shorter than what we had back with Irma but slightly less intense.

In was just about to ask about it’s comparison to Irma in regards to winds. From what I remember it was the strong pressure gradient created and less the “power from the storm” that brought the wind show up here. But actual seems like maybe a somewhat similar setup....? UNG clocked a 90+ gust during Irma. Not really hoping for a repeat of that.....