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Tropical Hurricane Zeta

We have Zeta which technically ties the record from 2005(there was an unnamed storm later in postseason)

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ZETA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
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Brent said:
We have Zeta which ties the record from 2005(there was an unnamed storm later in postseason)

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ZETA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Click to expand...

And ironically, the new UKMET is much weaker and doesn't ever get it stronger than a TD/1003 mb!! ?

Also, it is much further west and falls apart before landfall below W LA:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 83.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.10.2020 0 18.8N 83.6W 1005 25
1200UTC 25.10.2020 12 19.2N 83.1W 1006 26
0000UTC 26.10.2020 24 19.5N 83.7W 1004 25
1200UTC 26.10.2020 36 20.0N 84.6W 1004 26
0000UTC 27.10.2020 48 20.7N 86.0W 1004 26
1200UTC 27.10.2020 60 22.2N 88.2W 1005 29
0000UTC 28.10.2020 72 23.5N 90.5W 1004 31
1200UTC 28.10.2020 84 25.6N 92.6W 1004 32
0000UTC 29.10.2020 96 28.7N 93.0W 1003 33
1200UTC 29.10.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING
 
Brent said:
We have Zeta which technically ties the record from 2005(there was an unnamed storm later in postseason)

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ZETA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Click to expand...


I'm reading elsewhere (as you also may be) that a center relocation may be happening. If so, that could throw a big wrench in the projected timing and track. Some folks are fwiw already starting to compare this uncertainty to Mitch of 1998, which was not predicted well and unexpectedly kept going west into C America causing massive damage there.
 
Well for now the HWRF is also showing significant weakening and very lopsided appearance as it landfalls the center is near Mobile here

hwrf_satIR_28L_16 (1).png
 
The 0Z Euro is still another run into C LA (as a TS). This run is even faster with a LF already by late Wed afternoon. That seems too fast.
 
6z GFS hammers NEGA and Carolinas with rain from Zeta remnants!
 
...ZETA STRONGER...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 83.4W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
205840_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
9d8d87a042cb2f42c172abecb304acee.png

7d794e9ee5548f0cb9e72d1f3c986d5b.png


This ones got my attention! Even if it’s a cat 1 hitting Louisiana. 24hrs from landfall it’s a tropical depression in Kentucky. This could bring tropical storm guest for a lot of people from Georgia and the Carolinas plus tornadoes. This could be a big deal


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Jessy89 said:
9d8d87a042cb2f42c172abecb304acee.png

7d794e9ee5548f0cb9e72d1f3c986d5b.png


This ones got my attention! Even if it’s a cat 1 hitting Louisiana. 24hrs from landfall it’s a tropical depression in Kentucky. This could bring tropical storm guest for a lot of people from Georgia and the Carolinas plus tornadoes. This could be a big deal


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Click to expand...
I agree. This merging with a strong cold front and upper low could certainly be a recipe for widespread flooding and potentially damaging winds
 
Up to 60 mph and looking good on satellite I wonder if it's gonna try to RI this is the same area Delta didGOES16_1km_ir_202010260235_13.75_22.25_-90.75_-76.75_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png
 
0f58768b72b7d2e80ee23e2d3094a93a.png

0a422fe9ee303b3936c4d25659601668.png

d50aac4444716f78b33964233300c026.png


When this thing hits Louisiana that front is gonna accelerate zeta. From southern Mississippi to northern Virginia in 24hrs. Louisiana to Georgia to the Carolinas I think gonna have some pretty gusty winds. Possibly power outages and trees down isolated tornadoes with so much wind energy. It’s not only zeta it’s a strong cold front to.


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accu35 said:
Honestly I wouldn't be suprise to see an uptick in the intensity with the models soon. Even at landfall
Click to expand...

The gulf shouldn't be as favorable kind of like Delta but the big question is what does it come off the Yucatan looking like

The NHC is up to an 85 mph peak now
 
6z Goofus shows some major rain dumpage along and east of the trajectory. I-65, I-20 & I-85 corridors look to see another 3-5in event. The autumn rains have been measured in multi-inch events around here so far this season.
 
Brent said:
The gulf shouldn't be as favorable kind of like Delta but the big question is what does it come off the Yucatan looking like

The NHC is up to an 85 mph peak now
Click to expand...
With the trough coming in and the upper low to the west of it as it approaches, I wonder if this might start converting to extra-tropical even as its making landfall. If it does, that could help it hold some of its strength longer and further inland
 
Makes me wonder seeing the track. Could there actually be tropical storm watches/warnings all the way up through Georgia and the Carolinas? Would they issue those for a extra tropical event?


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Chazwin said:
With the trough coming in and the upper low to the west of it as it approaches, I wonder if this might start converting to extra-tropical even as its making landfall. If it does, that could help it hold some of its strength longer and further inland
Click to expand...
While this is nowhere near a hurricane Hazel, not even close (so I'm not suggesting otherwise lol), that is sorta what happened with Hazel. Hazel transitioned to extratropical near Raleigh shortly after landfall, thanks to a deep trough and powerful low to the NW allowing for rapid north movement and remaining powerful all the way into Canada. Again not suggesting anything remotely close to that but the overall pattern is somewhat similar and cold easily allow Zeta to remain stronger than usual further inland
 
TWC already calling for winds in excess of 40mph. Depending on how much rain we see, we will definitely see some trees come down, especially with there still being leaves. Sadly it will take away from the fall foliage.


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Showmeyourtds said:
6z Goofus shows some major rain dumpage along and east of the trajectory. I-65, I-20 & I-85 corridors look to see another 3-5in event. The autumn rains have been measured in multi-inch events around here so far this season.
Click to expand...

2020 is reminding me of September 2004 through July 2005 when a whopping 5 named storms (Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Cindy, and Dennis) had large effects on ATL with multi inch rains and in some cases gusty winds. At the time, that many different tropical cyclones having significant effects on ATL within such a short period of time (less than 1 year elapsed) was unprecedented in the record books. The amount of rainfall from those 5 TCs combined amounted to something like 20”!
 
GaWx said:
2020 is reminding me of September 2004 through July 2005 when a whopping 5 named storms (Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Cindy, and Dennis) had large effects on ATL with multi inch rains and in some cases gusty winds. At the time, that many different tropical cyclones having significant effects on ATL within such a short period of time (less than 1 year elapsed) was unprecedented in the record books. The amount of rainfall from those 5 TCs combined amounted to something like 20”!
Click to expand...

ATL area peeps, am I correct to say that Marco, Sally, Beta, and Delta have all had significant affects in the ATL area? If so, Zeta would make 5 in just one season? That would be pretty comparable to the unprecedented 5 of 2004-5, but in this case all in one season and within just 2.5 months! Good heavens!

Edit: And who would have ever thought there could be a season with 3 Greek letter storms having significant effects on Atlanta? Mind boggling stuff for the history books that could very well not happen again for hundreds of years! Note also that the first of these 5 wasn’t even until storm #13!
 
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GaWx said:
ATL area peeps, am I correct to say that Marco, Sally, Beta, and Delta have all had significant affects in the ATL area? If so, Zeta would make 5 in just one season? That would be pretty comparable to the unprecedented 5 of 2004-5, but in this case all in one season and within just 2.5 months! Good heavens!
Click to expand...
Yes, while the effects of the 2004 storms were greater in some respects, I have concern for Zeta with combination of wetter soils from the weekend and a decent severe threat as of now
 
161
URNT15 KNHC 261745
AF309 0728A ZETA HDOB 18 20201026
173630 1927N 08535W 6960 03071 9864 +163 +069 082038 041 039 000 03
173700 1925N 08535W 6967 03058 9867 +156 +089 088032 036 035 000 00
173730 1923N 08535W 6953 03068 9860 +151 +108 090027 031 021 000 00
173800 1921N 08535W 6955 03059 9862 +144 +108 081012 021 019 000 03
173830 1919N 08535W 6961 03052 9875 +132 +112 001005 007 013 000 00
173900 1917N 08534W 6961 03052 9881 +125 +122 292010 015 022 001 00
173930 1915N 08533W 6959 03054 //// +121 //// 277015 018 033 003 01
174000 1913N 08533W 6953 03064 9910 +128 //// 267023 024 044 006 05
174030 1912N 08534W 6965 03054 //// +119 //// 283025 027 047 004 01
174100 1910N 08536W 6958 03068 //// +121 //// 280031 033 047 003 01
174130 1909N 08537W 6962 03069 9915 +115 +110 278035 036 046 001 01
174200 1908N 08538W 6957 03080 //// +113 //// 274034 036 044 001 01
174230 1906N 08540W 6961 03079 9919 +123 +091 275036 037 044 000 00
174300 1905N 08541W 6958 03085 9919 +126 +092 283034 035 041 000 03
174330 1904N 08543W 6963 03082 9930 +119 +099 286032 033 039 000 00
174400 1903N 08544W 6959 03091 9936 +117 +093 287032 033 039 000 00
174430 1901N 08545W 6961 03093 9946 +114 +083 286032 032 037 000 03
174500 1900N 08547W 6959 03099 9948 +118 +077 286033 033 037 000 03
174530 1859N 08548W 6961 03100 9951 +119 +066 286032 033 036 000 03
174600 1858N 08550W 6961 03103 9950 +121 +064 284031 032 037 000 03
$$
;
Pressure down to 986 mb.
 
Jessy89 said:
Yeah Chris justice is actually saying a full blown tropical storm could impact upstate sc and ne Georgia and western nc 40-60 mph winds possible. Wouldn’t it be crazy to see tropical storm warnings issued in those areas? Crazy


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Click to expand...
That’s the thing about it, you root for a fast moving system to avoid major flooding but with a fast moving system, higher winds further inland. Catch 22
 
The GFS holds a 50-65knt 925mb wind field on the S and SE side of the circulation all the way through the Carolinas, that would mean surface gust to 35-50 certainly possible if it was efficient at mixing those down....
 
URNT15 KNHC 261855
AF309 0728A ZETA HDOB 25 20201026
184630 1926N 08549W 6958 03042 9853 +136 +119 021008 011 030 001 00
184700 1926N 08549W 6958 03042 9848 +144 +113 012018 021 012 001 03
184730 1926N 08553W 6967 03034 9838 +154 +114 012023 025 009 000 03
184800 1928N 08553W 6949 03056 9836 +156 +111 030019 025 /// /// 03
184830 1929N 08552W 6963 03036 9825 +164 +109 073020 022 011 000 00
184900 1931N 08550W 6960 03041 9809 +181 +098 095029 035 016 001 00
184930 1932N 08549W 6956 03046 9796 +194 +080 107035 036 028 000 00
185000 1933N 08547W 6960 03041 9817 +173 +098 114040 042 037 000 03
185030 1935N 08545W 6955 03050 9822 +170 +106 118044 046 045 001 00
185100 1936N 08544W 6956 03052 9848 +149 +119 123050 053 059 003 00
185130 1936N 08544W 6956 03052 9871 +139 +132 133053 055 062 010 00
185200 1939N 08540W 6958 03065 9889 +131 +129 138060 064 069 003 01
185230 1940N 08538W 6955 03076 9891 +120 +119 139058 061 071 002 01
185300 1942N 08537W 6959 03079 //// +084 //// 137055 059 071 003 01
185330 1943N 08535W 6955 03090 //// +082 //// 140056 058 070 004 01
185400 1944N 08533W 6956 03093 //// +080 //// 139060 063 068 002 01
185430 1946N 08531W 6954 03102 //// +091 //// 136058 061 068 002 01
185500 1947N 08530W 6960 03097 //// +104 //// 135059 062 063 001 01
185530 1948N 08528W 6962 03101 9959 +108 +097 138062 063 064 000 05
185600 1950N 08526W 6955 03112 9965 +108 +091 137057 062 066 002 03
$$
; Hello Hurricane Zeta.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Zeta has become a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds near
80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.
 
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