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Tropical Hurricane Laura (Post Landfall & Inland Effects)

From BMX
.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1122 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020/

Starting to get mildly concerned about the convective activity
developing in SW Alabama as it rotates northward through the
western portions of Central Alabama. As of writing it appears as
if Laura`s circulation center is just a bit too far west to
include a threat of severe weather for this afternoon. The winds
in the lowest several km are still unidirectional. However, this
will need to be monitored closely later today as the main
circulation center begins to shift more east with time. It will
become a delicate balance between how far east it shifts versus
the forward northward motion through the afternoon and evening
timeframe.

We will maintain an outside threat for tomorrow as Laura moves
north of the area. There will be 30 to 35 kts of shear over the
northern half of the state, with a decent amount of instability
in the afternoon and early evening. This could certainly organize
any rain bands into supercellular structures with tornadoes
possible.
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My guess is that there will be a few severe reports across NC, but not all that much to write home about. Definitely some rainfall and gusty winds for a bit, but I think any tornado activity will be sparse and brief, and I don't foresee a widespread wind event with gusts 58 mph or higher. Should be an active weather day, though...much better than the blazing hot swamp weather we're having today and tomorrow.
 
Rain Cold said:
My guess is that there will be a few severe reports across NC, but not all that much to write home about. Definitely some rainfall and gusty winds for a bit, but I think any tornado activity will be sparse and brief, and I don't foresee a widespread wind event with gusts 58 mph or higher. Should be an active weather day, though...much better than the blazing hot swamp weather we're having today and tomorrow.
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Yeah, with low LCLs I’m hoping to get something brief, think I’m headed to ENC Friday, better chase terrain there anyways
 
Getting back to actual weather, GSP with a length disco this afternoon regarding Laura
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...The main concern for the short term will be
the effects of the remnants of Laura, as its post-TC center tracks
across VA. The 12z ECMWF has just come in much further south with
the track, taking into northern NC on Saturday. It`s also stronger
and a little slower than consensus and official forecast. The NAM
is similar to the EC, but not as strong and a little north (keeping
it just north of the NC border). If the EC is right, we could see
some stronger wind gusts and heavier rain. But the QPF and winds in
the EC progs don`t look much different than the other operational
models. The NAM actually has the strongest 850 mb jet over the area
Saturday morning, and suggests we could see advisory-level gusts in
the high terrain, and breezy conditions east. Confidence on high
wind warning criteria (58 mph or higher) is low, with the LLJ out
of the SW (cross-valley), and weak low-level lapse rates. Mixing
should be shallow, but convective elements could produce some strong
wind gusts. At this time, think the wording in the HWO looks good.

As for the heavy rain threat, PWATs will spike into the 2.0-2.5"
range as would be expected with a tropical system. But the
remnants will be picking up speed, and the threat of excessive
rain and flooding look muted as a result. The NC mountains are
in a slight risk for excessive rainfall (marginal east), and that
looks reasonable. Our latest QPF along the TN line has about 1-3"
Friday night thru Saturday night, with the bulk of that falling
early Saturday morning. This could be enough to cause some
localized flooding.

One final concern with Laura will be the threat of convection
becoming severe. Instability across the eastern Upstate and the NC
piedmont looks to be in the 800-1600 J/kg range (the NAM is a high
outlier of 2000-2500 J/kg). There will be plenty of shear, with
0-3km helicity of 200-400 m2/s2. So depending on the exact timing
of the convection and how much clearing/instability can occur just
ahead of it, we could see a sort of QLCS or mini-supercell form
and cross the I-77 corridor Saturday aftn. If the line is a little
faster, that threat may shift just to our east. For now, there is
a slight risk on the Day 3 convective outlook for the eastern third
of the forecast area. Despite a tropical remnant tracking thru, it
will be warm with temps slightly above normal. It will feel muggy.

The remnants of Laura should exit to the east Saturday evening,
with some lingering NW flow showers along the TN line into the
overnight. Sunday looks fairly quiet, with above normal temps. A
weak front stalls out just to our south and a few showers and
garden-variety storms may develop across our extreme southwestern
zones.
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Looking at NAM, it’s making me think it’s more of a ENC thing, after that passes, soundings are pretty impressive along the cold front but it’s mostly capped
 
3km NAM is bad for Atlanta Georgia through the NC foothills can see discrete storms out ahead of Laura’s remains early Saturday. Good thing is they don’t really go east of i77 where the bigger cities are.
 
Maybe 11pm Thursday through 9am Friday. Can see several storms zip north-east out of the Atlanta metro into higher elevations of NC look nasty. Far western Upstate SC included and far north-eastern Georgia too.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Honestly kinda more interested with the front itself after the remnants pass View attachment 47548
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Yikes, those are pretty high composites for late August. I am guessing even though the main remnants may have passed over, the wind energy will still be there. You may be able to stay local and chase here if this comes to fruition. Save some gas money, unless you just want the flat terrain. Which I completely understand.
 
ryan1234 said:
Charlotte? ?‍♂️ Last time I checked we are right on 77...
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NAM keeps it west of there but as we get closer I wouldn’t be surprised to see some more being modeled East of the foothills. For now the nighttime threat looks like mountains and foothills with tropical upslope that could rotate. Several hours per NAM but isolated.
 
ryan1234 said:
Yikes, those are pretty high composites for late August. I am guessing even though the main remnants may have passed over, the wind energy will still be there. You may be able to stay local and chase here if this comes to fruition. Save some gas money, unless you just want the flat terrain. Which I completely understand.
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Yeah problem is that mid level warmth that moves in, if storms broke that than they would likely be severe
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah problem is that mid level warmth that moves in, if storms broke that than they would likely be severe
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This is going to be a wait and see kind of setup. It could honestly go either way, at this point. If the front and the remnants of Laura slow down even by an hour or two, we could definitely see some good gusts and some isolated tornadoes.
 
NRVWX said:
Seems the Euro is way off from the NHC track.
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Well the Euro has not exactly been knocking it out of the park with the track on this thing.....versus the NHC which well nailed over 3 days out even when the Euro insisted Laura was going to Texas...

 
^ Lol does anyone have an GIF like that for Marco? It was rare for the NHC to bust like they did even in the short term the cone was hitting Central America/Mexico and kept changing it till it went way way north
 
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