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Tropical Hurricane Idalia

Chazwin said:
While I’m the first to say the similarities can be seen, let’s remember that Michael literally had everything possible going for it on its approach to the coast. That RI cycle started at just the right time so that it hit max strength right at the moment of its landfall… something that I can only recall happening 3 times in my lifetime (Hugo going into SC, Andrew going into south Florida, and then Michael)
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This is dead on. Michael had a huge influx of tropical moisture which protected the core from dry air and also a huge amount of ventilation aloft. This one will have plenty, but Michael was a total example of everything going perfect.
 
HMMMM something very wierd going on with Franklin and Odalia on the Euro. They are clearly interacting now as Franklin

Here is 12Ztoday

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12Z yesterday Instead of zooming away NNE Franklin is interacting with Odalia and crawling ese. I would imagine nothing is set on Odalia yet.

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iGRXY said:
I don’t want to say I told you so or count the chickens before they hatch, but it was forecasted to move over the warmest waters in the Caribbean Sea and going into a scorching GOM this is not very surprising seeing this rapid organization. A stronger storm also favors more western movement. Even I got to admit I didn’t think it was going through look this food this fast. This definitely has a shot to be a good bit stronger than even I originally thought.
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And how many times have we seen storms in the Gulf blow up rapidly the last few years?
 
lexxnchloe said:
HMMMM something very wierd going on with Franklin and Odalia on the Euro. They are clearly interacting now as Franklin

Here is 12Ztoday

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_42.png



12Z yesterday Instead of zooming away NNE Franklin is interacting with Odalia and crawling ese. I would imagine nothing is set on Odalia yet.

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_49.png
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I thinks that’s more of a reaction to Idalia being a stronger storm and interfering with the steering that would carry Franklin away. Another thing I’m noticing is that the Euro has the center of Idalia in almost the same spot two days from now that it appears to be organizing in now…it doesn’t seem to be in an area that it would just sit and spin for a couple days
 
D-min doing its thing. Cloud tops have warmed quite a bit over the COC at this time. I still say TS by tonight.
 
lexxnchloe said:
They are clearly interacting on the Euro. Yes, thats Odalia moving south well SW of Bermuda

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ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_56.png
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Ok if that were to happen then what’s next. Does another trough come in to carry it away or does a ridge build in to its north and steer back into the southeast coast
 
Chazwin said:
I thinks that’s more of a reaction to Idalia being a stronger storm and interfering with the steering that would carry Franklin away. Another thing I’m noticing is that the Euro has the center of Idalia in almost the same spot two days from now that it appears to be organizing in now…it doesn’t seem to be in an area that it would just sit and spin for a couple days
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At least we have fun things to track
 
lexxnchloe said:
This solution is so wierd i have no idea
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Yeah I mean the only Gulf storm that I have ever seen do that loop around and come back to the west was Ivan in 2004… that however was a remnant low that held back when a trough pulled away.., it moved slowly around a ridge of high pressure and redeveloped into a tropical storm a week later back in the Gulf. This would still be a fairly intact though significantly weakened TC.
 
It looks like it will head out but we have gfs saying it dies inland to the Euro having it 500 miles off the coast. Inbetween would be us, lol
 
lexxnchloe said:
Euro ends right over Bermuda but its safe to say its worth watching after FLA

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I think the EURO has the general right idea on the track though I could definitely see it correcting to the west a bit going forward especially now that we have defined center. The bit question I have on it is it’s timing… I just don’t see why it’s holding the center in basically the same spot in two days as it is right now.
 
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