• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Idalia

Rain Cold said:
We going to be out of the cone by tomorrow afternoon.
Click to expand...
Yep this is not our rainmaker that we desperately need. We'll have to hope for the best today through Tues for that. I do hope it stays relatively weak for the folks along the FL panhandle. I'm sure they would rather not see a major hurricane.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yep this is not our rainmaker that we desperately need. We'll have to hope for the best today through Tues for that. I do hope it stays relatively weak for the folks along the FL panhandle. I'm sure they would rather not see a major hurricane.
Click to expand...
We are out. Too far east now. Next.
 
"HAFS is as good as NOAA’s existing hurricane models when forecasting storm intensity — but is better at predicting rapid intensification. HAFS was the first model last year to accurately predict that Hurricane Ian would undergo secondary rapid intensification as the storm moved off the coast of Cuba and barreled toward southwest Florida." -NOAA

The 00z HAFS run last night just goes to show how prime the waters of the gulf loop currently are for rapid intensification potential:

TENL.png
 
weatherguy said:
"HAFS is as good as NOAA’s existing hurricane models when forecasting storm intensity — but is better at predicting rapid intensification. HAFS was the first model last year to accurately predict that Hurricane Ian would undergo secondary rapid intensification as the storm moved off the coast of Cuba and barreled toward southwest Florida." -NOAA

The 00z HAFS run last night just goes to show how prime the waters of the gulf loop currently are for rapid intensification potential:

View attachment 136510
Click to expand...

I wonder if this will be a compact storm like Charley.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
BHS1975 said:
I wonder if this will be a compact storm like Charley.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I doubt it’s that compact, but I don’t expect an incredibly huge wind field either. I do expect to see the shield of rainfall spread very far northward as a result of the stalled front and trough dropping in.
 
Charley had hurricane winds at about 70 miles wide. Some models are showing this pretty compact as well, the HAFS shows hurricane winds of Idalia at about 70 to 80 miles wide.
 
Chazwin said:
I doubt it’s that compact, but I don’t expect an incredibly huge wind field either. I do expect to see the shield of rainfall spread very far northward as a result of the stalled front and trough dropping in.
Click to expand...

The GFS is the only one showing that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
RAH one more East shift from getting a cloud storm at best!
 
BHS1975 said:
The GFS is the only one showing that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It is, but it’s some thing that makes sense with the overall set up. I think as we get closer you’ll see short term models latch onto it better than globals.
 
Loganville Winter said:
Euro doesn’t look like it has much intensification. Would a stronger storm resist East movement some?
Click to expand...
No, the trough is gonna kick anything east. The southward movement, delaying it's move north, has given the trough time to kick it east. We might not be done with east shifts.

At least the Euro gives Ga and SC coast some good action too
 
Last night

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_23.png



This afternoon

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_19.png



9MB stronger at 21z tues
 
I know this is a different storm but with Hilary, Las Vegas received flooding rains when it made landfall over 300 miles away.

Unless this thing tracks so far SE that it goes across Florida, anywhere in NC/SC/GA will probably see a lot of rain. Especially with the frontal system.

Sent from my LM-Q730 using Tapatalk
 
They are awfully close to each other here. Past this point alot can happen. It might not show it now but stalling off the coast may happen in future runs

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_26.png
 
Idalia has a very uncertain future once off the GA coast. Euro says a min cane is possible here and i would not be surprised if in future runs it comes back around.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top