Deep convection over LLC, looking ready for takeoff
Deep convection over LLC, looking ready for takeoff
Been looking like that for a while. It needed to be already moving north by now. Likely, the only way for it to end up west now is to slow down more and then the trough will swing by before it fully kicks it out east. That could lead to a stall and flooding, though. That said, it will most likely it will end up on the eastern envelope and then OTS.For those who want this on a panhandle to GA to WNC route, it is going to have to get moving quickly...(IMO that route is trending less and less, mainly because of the reform East/movement more over the water vs the Yuc). I think this is a Tampa to Orlando to JAX to ILM route.
If I had to guess right now, I would say closer to the Big Bend area. I actually think that the current NHC looks about right considering what we can see right now. I do still think rain on the northern side will be much more expansive than what the Euro is showing. I definitely think that at least a category 3 at landfall is a definite possibility.For those who want this on a panhandle to GA to WNC route, it is going to have to get moving quickly...(IMO that route is trending less and less, mainly because of the reform East/movement more over the water vs the Yuc). I think this is a Tampa to Orlando to JAX to ILM route.
Also wonder what a slightly more west Franklin means. Could the ridge be stronger also slowing the trough a bit. Still lots of kinks to work outSpeaking of the west to east shifts, also depends on where the lift off will be. If she decides to loop back to the west before the turn that could change thing track wise. Gfs shows this NNW in the gulf before the turn.
They’ve really held pretty close with that track the last 3 updates. It does look like they are speeding it up though
I'll be interested to see changes after hunters go up.They’ve really held pretty close with that track the last 3 updates. It does look like they are speeding it up though
Franklin's been moving due west the last hour or so... There's some stronger heights and the trough has been a bit slower to arriveAlso wonder what a slightly more west Franklin means. Could the ridge be stronger also slowing the trough a bit. Still lots of kinks to work out
They may up the peak strength up to upper-end Cat 2 since the Euro came in stronger. 965 mb.I don't know for sure, but my **GUESS** is that NHC will slight adjust again East on track.
The two storms are getting so close, might be a Fujiwara affect at some point?Big oof on the GFS View attachment 136525
It looks to me like the 18z GFS and the 18z Euro line up pretty well with the current forecast track.I don't know for sure, but my **GUESS** is that NHC will slight adjust again East on track.
Yeah euro definitely a tick to the westIt looks to me like the 18z GFS and the 18z Euro line up pretty well with the current forecast track.
Obviously still 48 hrs out but it looks like models are really starting to converge around Cedar Key
Euro was a bit slower with the troughYeah euro definitely a tick to the west
If Franklin keeps crawling west it may mean a slower trough is the right ideaEuro was a bit slower with the trough
Very possible. Looking at the radar and satellite the past couple hours, the center seems to be moving more westward than anything. The GFS has been having it start with a NNW motion while other models have been east of due north.If Franklin keeps crawling west it may mean a slower trough is the right idea
Stay on it. Ill be back down in Brunswick co Thurs, Friday. Fast mover, exit and Franklin my cause some tide problemsIf Franklin keeps crawling west it may mean a slower trough is the right idea
Franklin appears to be turning northward now, I doubt we see any big swings in forecast track from here on out imhoIf Franklin keeps crawling west it may mean a slower trough is the right idea
Yeah the icon and euro have shown this general track now for quite a while. Need the Euro intensity for here though. I'd be looking at TS force gusts I think with the. 18zFranklin appears to be turning northward now, I doubt we see any big swings in forecast track from here on out imho
10L IDALIA 230828 0000 19.8N 85.4W ATL 45 992
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES