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Tropical Hurricane Idalia

metwannabe said:
Deep convection over LLC, looking ready for takeoff
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Radar shows thunderstorms wrapping up the SE side of the apparent circulation. Any intensification over the 12 hours will up intensity forecasts once its in the Gulf

Must have worked out some of the dry air intrusion coming from the SW flow off the Yucatan too.
 
deltadog03 said:
For those who want this on a panhandle to GA to WNC route, it is going to have to get moving quickly...(IMO that route is trending less and less, mainly because of the reform East/movement more over the water vs the Yuc). I think this is a Tampa to Orlando to JAX to ILM route.
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Been looking like that for a while. It needed to be already moving north by now. Likely, the only way for it to end up west now is to slow down more and then the trough will swing by before it fully kicks it out east. That could lead to a stall and flooding, though. That said, it will most likely it will end up on the eastern envelope and then OTS.
 
deltadog03 said:
For those who want this on a panhandle to GA to WNC route, it is going to have to get moving quickly...(IMO that route is trending less and less, mainly because of the reform East/movement more over the water vs the Yuc). I think this is a Tampa to Orlando to JAX to ILM route.
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If I had to guess right now, I would say closer to the Big Bend area. I actually think that the current NHC looks about right considering what we can see right now. I do still think rain on the northern side will be much more expansive than what the Euro is showing. I definitely think that at least a category 3 at landfall is a definite possibility.
 
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Looks like the center is almost completely surrounded - that took an hour
 
Speaking of the west to east shifts, also depends on where the lift off will be. If she decides to loop back to the west before the turn that could change thing track wise. Gfs shows this NNW in the gulf before the turn.
 
accu35 said:
Speaking of the west to east shifts, also depends on where the lift off will be. If she decides to loop back to the west before the turn that could change thing track wise. Gfs shows this NNW in the gulf before the turn.
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Also wonder what a slightly more west Franklin means. Could the ridge be stronger also slowing the trough a bit. Still lots of kinks to work out
 
I don't know for sure, but my **GUESS** is that NHC will slight adjust again East on track.
 
Shaggy said:
If Franklin keeps crawling west it may mean a slower trough is the right idea
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Very possible. Looking at the radar and satellite the past couple hours, the center seems to be moving more westward than anything. The GFS has been having it start with a NNW motion while other models have been east of due north.
 
Shaggy said:
If Franklin keeps crawling west it may mean a slower trough is the right idea
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Franklin appears to be turning northward now, I doubt we see any big swings in forecast track from here on out imho
 
It should be noted that the 00z have incorporated data from NOAA synoptic flights and low-level data from the storm. Given the rather tight cluster within the modeling, and considering we're some 72 hours or so from landfall, I wouldn't expect more than small adjustments in the forecast track.

That said, RI while still in the NW Caribean, if it occurs(earlier than forecast) may swing the track back west some by pumping the ULL ridge more and slowing the southern extent of the approaching long-wave ULL trough.
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
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Idalia is sitting over very warm waters of about 30 degrees
Celsius, and when it moves northward, it will be over the even
deeper warm waters of the Loop Current in 24-36 hours. Although
the trough over the Gulf could impart some shear over the system,
this is likely to be offset by upper-level diffluence. Idalia has
already strengthened more than anticipated, and the environment
looks ripe for additional intensification, possibly rapid. The NHC
intensity forecast has been increased and lies at the upper bound of
the guidance. The new prediction now shows a 95-kt hurricane over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed
that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is
becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast
of Florida. Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch
areas are urged to prepare for possible significant impacts and
monitor future updates to the forecast.
 
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