• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Idalia

025839_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 
been recalibrating after attending a bachelor party and not being clued in for 48 hours. obviously it seems the llc getting offshore quickly completely changed the calculus. i did not think this thing would get organized quickly... boy was i wrong

this is dangerous for the big bend, and it wouldn't take very many tugs east to become a big deal in a hurry for tampa. current satellite presentation is excellent. now that we're dealing with a legit entity and not a pile of scraps from the yucatan, i'm unsure what the ceiling is with this storm but it is probably higher than you think.
 
ILMRoss said:
been recalibrating after attending a bachelor party and not being clued in for 48 hours. obviously it seems the llc getting offshore quickly completely changed the calculus. i did not think this thing would get organized quickly... boy was i wrong

this is dangerous for the big bend, and it wouldn't take very many tugs east to become a big deal in a hurry for tampa. current satellite presentation is excellent. now that we're dealing with a legit entity and not a pile of scraps from the yucatan, i'm unsure what the ceiling is with this storm but it is probably higher than you think.
Click to expand...
I agree! Big bend to Tampa had better be ready. Tampa, like you said, could take this one on the chin directly.
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree! Big bend to Tampa had better be ready. Tampa, like you said, could take this one on the chin directly.
Click to expand...

deltadog03 said:
I agree! Big bend to Tampa had better be ready. Tampa, like you said, could take this one on the chin directly
Click to expand...
Ironically, RGEM, GFS and a couple guidance ticked west and slower on the 00z runs, which I think include the high level RECON earlier
 
Stormsfury said:
Ironically, RGEM, GFS and a couple guidance ticked west and slower on the 00z runs, which I think include the high level RECON earlier
Click to expand...
And no doubt this could make a big bend to SE GA to CHS exit out for sure.

Big question for me is when does it start pulling northward and at what strength.
 
overnight guidance has definitely shifted west a bit and looking at the H5 maps this thing is getting dangerously close to missing out on the trough as it kicks east. All the talk of the south movement giving the trough time to kick it east has now turned into the south trend and southeast wobbling of the storm is quickly giving it a chance to be missed by the trough all together
 
Thing has a long shot of staying Hurricane entire time over land. Looks like it may spend 18 hours max, before being able to get back over water. I'm curious how it throws moisture back NW as it weakens over land, like they normally do during these transitions. Its swampy in SE GA ( Ocefenoke swamp)
 
We have some flies in the ointment.

I will say the new 06z GFS stalls the system off the coast after initial landfall, spins it around, and sends it's remnants back inland.

We aren't done with model shifts yet.. that's for sure.
 
Blowing up rapidly to become a major has become the norm now for storms in the Gulf. The NHC track looks better for NC, but we could use the rain. Of course the track could shift back farther west with how the models have gone back a bit west overnight.
 
Looking at the model runs overnight along with the 6z GFS here’s some things that stand out.
1. Models are definitely ticking back further west which could once again put the Big Bend area back into the right front quadrant of the storm… with a major hurricane now looking increasingly likely, this could be a huge storm surge given how prone that area is.
2. If it does make landfall as a major and maintains forward speed as forecast over land, there is a serious possibility that it could maintain hurricane strength through southeast Georgia before exiting off the SC coast… it would be moving over a lot of flat swampy areas that would allow a storm to maintain strength a little longer.
3. The 6z GFS is now showing the trough leaving the storm behind and stalling it off the SE coast… this is something that the EURO showed the other day.
 
Chazwin said:
Looking at the model runs overnight along with the 6z GFS here’s some things that stand out.
1. Models are definitely ticking back further west which could once again put the Big Bend area back into the right front quadrant of the storm… with a major hurricane now looking increasingly likely, this could be a huge storm surge given how prone that area is.
2. If it does make landfall as a major and maintains forward speed as forecast over land, there is a serious possibility that it could maintain hurricane strength through southeast Georgia before exiting off the SC coast… it would be moving over a lot of flat swampy areas that would allow a storm to maintain strength a little longer.
3. The 6z GFS is now showing the trough leaving the storm behind and stalling it off the SE coast… this is something that the EURO showed the other day.
Click to expand...

The runs are slowing down more and more too.. Like we are talking substatial speed changes within 06 hourly model runs vs their previous. There's definitely a struggle going on here.

The GEFS MSLP cluster is getting tighter and more confined vs previous runs.. which is expected I "guess" , but more so within 00z vs 06z only is a bit telling that something has been ingested. Are they feeding the recon data directly into/yet?
 
Something else that's generally alarming when you take a look at the upper level wind development across the hurricane models is once it's a few hundred miles from the big bend, it undergoes intensification up to landfall. What I can tell is it RI's and undergoes ERC mid-gulf before intensifying more afterwards, per the models. Any different ways it could play out will likely alter the intensity modeling and forecasts drastically as well as impacts. All down to how fast this thing can intensify.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Something else that's generally alarming when you take a look at the upper level wind development across the hurricane models is once it's a few hundred miles from the big bend, it undergoes intensification up to landfall. What I can tell is it RI's and undergoes ERC mid-gulf before intensifying more afterwards, per the models. Any different ways it could play out will likely alter the intensity modeling and forecasts drastically as well as impacts. All down to how fast this thing can intensify.
Click to expand...
That’s one of those timing issues that we never see worked out until we’re within a few hours of landfall. You’re right though that everything from an environment standpoint indicates that this should strengthen right up until landfall.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Something else that's generally alarming when you take a look at the upper level wind development across the hurricane models is once it's a few hundred miles from the big bend, it undergoes intensification up to landfall. What I can tell is it RI's and undergoes ERC mid-gulf before intensifying more afterwards, per the models. Any different ways it could play out will likely alter the intensity modeling and forecasts drastically as well as impacts. All down to how fast this thing can intensify.
Click to expand...

Personally speaking; (not a forecast) I do not think that Tampa Bay proper is out of the woods yet; Even. Very finicky setup.
 
It won't take too much more slowing to get this thing stuck inland somewhere, probably over SC, as the trough departs. The 6z GFS leaves it behind just offshore. I mentioned this as a possibility yesterday, but if this isn't a blip and is indeed a trend, some parts of the SE could see some pretty spectacular rainfall totals. We'll see.
 
Shawn said:
Personally speaking; (not a forecast) I do not think that Tampa Bay proper is out of the woods yet; Even. Very finicky setup.
Click to expand...
I think that since it’s been moving north steadily since midnight, a direct hit on Tampa is looking less likely, but still some time before we know final details
 
I always thought this thing would be stronger than a Cat 1 the water temps are just off the charts I haven't looked at shear yet this morning. I could see a low end Cat 4 by the time it makes landfall.
 
metwannabe said:
There is ever so slight tick NW and while still fairly clustered, it is a little more fanned out now, showing a little uncertainty creeping into the picture

10L_tracks_latest.png
Click to expand...
Definitely a couple more trying to stall it out off the southeast coast
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top