I agree! Big bend to Tampa had better be ready. Tampa, like you said, could take this one on the chin directly.been recalibrating after attending a bachelor party and not being clued in for 48 hours. obviously it seems the llc getting offshore quickly completely changed the calculus. i did not think this thing would get organized quickly... boy was i wrong
this is dangerous for the big bend, and it wouldn't take very many tugs east to become a big deal in a hurry for tampa. current satellite presentation is excellent. now that we're dealing with a legit entity and not a pile of scraps from the yucatan, i'm unsure what the ceiling is with this storm but it is probably higher than you think.
I agree! Big bend to Tampa had better be ready. Tampa, like you said, could take this one on the chin directly.
Ironically, RGEM, GFS and a couple guidance ticked west and slower on the 00z runs, which I think include the high level RECON earlierI agree! Big bend to Tampa had better be ready. Tampa, like you said, could take this one on the chin directly
And no doubt this could make a big bend to SE GA to CHS exit out for sure.Ironically, RGEM, GFS and a couple guidance ticked west and slower on the 00z runs, which I think include the high level RECON earlier
Left behind, to aimlessly wander around with heights shortly rebuilding around it
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Looking at the model runs overnight along with the 6z GFS here’s some things that stand out.
1. Models are definitely ticking back further west which could once again put the Big Bend area back into the right front quadrant of the storm… with a major hurricane now looking increasingly likely, this could be a huge storm surge given how prone that area is.
2. If it does make landfall as a major and maintains forward speed as forecast over land, there is a serious possibility that it could maintain hurricane strength through southeast Georgia before exiting off the SC coast… it would be moving over a lot of flat swampy areas that would allow a storm to maintain strength a little longer.
3. The 6z GFS is now showing the trough leaving the storm behind and stalling it off the SE coast… this is something that the EURO showed the other day.
That’s one of those timing issues that we never see worked out until we’re within a few hours of landfall. You’re right though that everything from an environment standpoint indicates that this should strengthen right up until landfall.Something else that's generally alarming when you take a look at the upper level wind development across the hurricane models is once it's a few hundred miles from the big bend, it undergoes intensification up to landfall. What I can tell is it RI's and undergoes ERC mid-gulf before intensifying more afterwards, per the models. Any different ways it could play out will likely alter the intensity modeling and forecasts drastically as well as impacts. All down to how fast this thing can intensify.
Something else that's generally alarming when you take a look at the upper level wind development across the hurricane models is once it's a few hundred miles from the big bend, it undergoes intensification up to landfall. What I can tell is it RI's and undergoes ERC mid-gulf before intensifying more afterwards, per the models. Any different ways it could play out will likely alter the intensity modeling and forecasts drastically as well as impacts. All down to how fast this thing can intensify.
I think that since it’s been moving north steadily since midnight, a direct hit on Tampa is looking less likely, but still some time before we know final detailsPersonally speaking; (not a forecast) I do not think that Tampa Bay proper is out of the woods yet; Even. Very finicky setup.
I think Apalachicola to Tampa Bay is still entirely in range and that'll be narrower tomorrow evening as we see how much Idalia wants to stay one course or another.Personally speaking; (not a forecast) I do not think that Tampa Bay proper is out of the woods yet; Even. Very finicky setup.
That would be problematic. SW GA should be ok, though. I heard they were out of the woods.
The NHC seems to be ignoring the tracks N and W of center. Makes me think its just a one off. Jim Cantore will be in Cedar Key so that tells me alot.That would be problematic. SW GA should be ok, though. I heard they were out of the woods.
Yep, its going to be lopsided for a while. Should help keep if from going boom until the last min.Shear making it hard for it to stack up still.
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Definitely a couple more trying to stall it out off the southeast coastThere is ever so slight tick NW and while still fairly clustered, it is a little more fanned out now, showing a little uncertainty creeping into the picture
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