Carolina Jones
Member
Track went east again.
Last edited:
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Tropical Hurricane Idalia
- Thread starter $alt
- Start date
We going to be out of the cone by tomorrow afternoon.
NoSnowATL
Member
I will be by the next run. We will be lucky to clouds at this point.
Yep non event here
Shaggy
Member
Yeah even getting to be a concern for me on the coast missing this too far offshore. Gfs coming in much stronger and west still at 12z though.
Yep this is not our rainmaker that we desperately need. We'll have to hope for the best today through Tues for that. I do hope it stays relatively weak for the folks along the FL panhandle. I'm sure they would rather not see a major hurricane.
NoSnowATL
Member
We are out. Too far east now. Next.
tractor girl
Member
Yep, I'm tapping out of this chase.
Good luck to those in FL and SC/NC coastal areas.
Good luck to those in FL and SC/NC coastal areas.
chase5ash
Member
BHS1975
Member
BHS1975
Member
weatherguy
Member
"HAFS is as good as NOAA’s existing hurricane models when forecasting storm intensity — but is better at predicting rapid intensification. HAFS was the first model last year to accurately predict that Hurricane Ian would undergo secondary rapid intensification as the storm moved off the coast of Cuba and barreled toward southwest Florida." -NOAA
The 00z HAFS run last night just goes to show how prime the waters of the gulf loop currently are for rapid intensification potential:
The 00z HAFS run last night just goes to show how prime the waters of the gulf loop currently are for rapid intensification potential:
BHS1975
Member
I wonder if this will be a compact storm like Charley.
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I doubt it’s that compact, but I don’t expect an incredibly huge wind field either. I do expect to see the shield of rainfall spread very far northward as a result of the stalled front and trough dropping in.
weatherguy
Member
Charley had hurricane winds at about 70 miles wide. Some models are showing this pretty compact as well, the HAFS shows hurricane winds of Idalia at about 70 to 80 miles wide.
BHS1975
Member
RAH one more East shift from getting a cloud storm at best!
It is, but it’s some thing that makes sense with the overall set up. I think as we get closer you’ll see short term models latch onto it better than globals.
Take another look. The end of those 2 tracks are not even close,
Edit: Especially now that the official track is even further East.