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Tropical Hurricane Idalia
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
They really are starting to slow it down Wednesday night and Thursday. Earlier they had it southeast of Cape Hatteras at 1pm Thursday, now it’s to the SSW of Cape Hatteras six hours later.
Making the NAM the western outlier.
FV3 has a large West shift vs it's previous too... I guess the GFS, NAM, and FV3 are horrible models and maybe we should just only rely on the Euro else everything else is an outlier.
NOTED.
NOTED.
BHS1975
Member
If the Euro is always right (which it seems it is) why do we even bother with the other models? We honestly have this same conversation for winter and the rest of the year. Let’s just get rid of them all but the Euro I say.
JHS
Member
Do not trust it at all. It is WAY off an hour in. Shows it dry where there are many storms now.
This is actually a great idea.
Here comes the 1st big test for the short term movement with the models. Most of them have it along and west of 85W and almost moving due north for like next 24 hours. It looks like it's a bit east of 85W as of now and staying to the east of it at the moment. Something to watch as it's starting to move.
JHS
Member
That one makes it interesting for sure. Maybe the Euro comes west too, but I do not think it will.
So just think.. .if that was to workout.....it's going to have to move at like 360 until landfall. It's a bit east of 85W now.
Yeah, I noticed on the RGEM there's a pronounced wobble over the Gulf, while the NAM is a lot less potent with it too. Will be interesting to see if GFS follows any further West in the next few minutes.
Dang 00z GFS definitely a bit west; and into GA etc too.
Someone smarter than me at 500mb maybe can figure out what these models are picking up on/changed to even show a slight tug to the west like the RGEM showed?
Someone smarter than me at 500mb maybe can figure out what these models are picking up on/changed to even show a slight tug to the west like the RGEM showed?
Looks like it sits off the NC coast for 12 hours on the latest NHC track.
there's a diffuse shortwave/trough in the gulf that the short range models show some interaction with- i think that's what's tugging it west. i don't like leaning on short range models for the tropics but if the gfs is showing it, it might be bona fide
JHS
Member
It makes a sharp turn in GA and the exits SC south of Myrtle Beach.
The models did tick west, I’m not sure what you are trying to convey here!
Right or wrong I’d take the rain!
Read the original post again. I posted a graphic containing NHC forecast tracks, not model forecast tracks, that showed that the latest NHC track was indeed further West than the previous one.
Edit: It's a moot point now anyway because the NHC has already moved the latest forecast track back East.
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There’s a eye on Cuba radar.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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That GFS run! ??? It takes Idalia meanders it off GA/SC /FL coast for a few days after it exits SC and then slams Jacksonville, FL and then up into Carolinas again! One of the craziest runs I’ve ever seen! 
Looks like a pretty good surface low track for a snowstorm. ?
Belle Lechat
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I can't be the only one wondering if it's going to loop back around again.
iGRXY
Member
The Euro also is drifting NW. personally I think the land interaction and some of the shear ahas tugged or appeared to make the storm seem east of guidance. But the big driver is that the trough is looking more and more likely to miss the storm. Listen you can’t have that many models trend west and even the eastern sided guidance starting to make small incremental shifts west and NW to not call it a trend. Whether you want to believe or not it is a clear trend and what was once a quick exit OTS is quickly becoming a slow meandering over land and that is shifting further and further to the NW.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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6Z NAM a tick E from 0Z
0z top, 6z bottom
0z top, 6z bottom
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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12z and 6z GFS identical in landfall location
DEF westerly trendings for not only landfall but track through the SE. That is good in the sense for rainfall for some for sure.
Henry2326
Member
This is about as much agreement as you can get....and it's gonna loop around.
I thought there was a west trend. Those look farther south and east as it relates to previous tracks into NC.
It’s certainly a possibility. Also there’s a chance that it continues to slow down more over land or near the coast. That plot at 1pm Thursday is very close to where the 11pm advisory last night was showing it at 7pm Thursday… so again about 6 hours slower. Two things have been very noticeable on the model trends since yesterday morning… a path a bit further west and slower movement over land. Models are not far at all from the trough pulling away and leaving the storm sitting in southern SC
I can't be the only one wondering if it's going to loop back around again.
Not really… yesterday they were showing the storm exiting in the area between Hilton Head and Charleston and now they’ve clustered closer to Myrtle Beach
NCSNOW
Member
Yep I can see this rolling all the way back around and making another LF in a week, IF it doesn't dissengrate over land from a stall
Looks like the hurricane models are ranging from Cat 3(HWRF) to almost Cat 5(HAFS). Looks like the timing of an ERC will determine landfall strength.