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Tropical Hurricane Idalia

Yeah it’s hard to tell for sure because the stronger convection is still having a problem wrapping around it.
Yeah still dealing with some shear, again the hurricane models have shown this. Tomorrow will be show time once that shear abates
 
Looks like the burst might close that eye.
Idalia_26-27Aug23_lbj_recent.gif
Looks like the tip tightened up the spin as the wind deflected off it.
 
Most modeling has the ull to north moving out and a trough developing in W GOM tomorrow, should set the stage for much better environment. Probably be able to pinpoint a LF much better at that point
 
Yeah still dealing with some shear, again the hurricane models have shown this. Tomorrow will be show time once that shear abates
I agree completely. Even with the shear the pressure is still dropping and some impressive cloud tops on the satellite image. It will be really interesting to see how fast it deepens tomorrow when the shear lets up
 
Looks like the burst might close that eye.
Idalia_26-27Aug23_lbj_recent.gif
I know it’s a small piece of land, but definitely looks like center is going over some land
 
Is it just me or is the storm surge forecast that TWC is showing seem very conservative especially since we are near a full moon? They are showing a max storm surge of 8-12 ft in the Big Bend area and 4-7 ft in Tampa Bay. The Big Bend area is very prone to surge due to the shape of the coastline and the continental shelf… some areas there had a surge of 6-7 feet from Michael even though it made landfall all the way over at Panama City. Tampa Bay had a 5-6 foot surge from TS Eta in 2020 and it passed to the west in a similar trajectory that this storm is forecast.
 
Is it just me or is the storm surge forecast that TWC is showing seem very conservative especially since we are near a full moon? They are showing a max storm surge of 8-12 ft in the Big Bend area and 4-7 ft in Tampa Bay. The Big Bend area is very prone to surge due to the shape of the coastline and the continental shelf… some areas there had a surge of 6-7 feet from Michael even though it made landfall all the way over at Panama City. Tampa Bay had a 5-6 foot surge from TS Eta in 2020 and it passed to the west in a similar trajectory that this storm is forecast.
I know there are king tides in Charleston through 9/1
 
Nam isn't too far off from the navy COAMPS or the 18z GFS landfall/track. So it's not alone in regards to that.
 
I just find it interesting that GFS, COAMPS, and NAM are basically on top of each other track wise right now give or take some mileage for resolution.

ICON running, it's one of the further East models.. lets see.
 
That track through GA and SC is a big change though.
18z NAM kind of did it. But nothing else of note is doing it. Unless we see some of the other models jump on it in a bit, we can assume it's most likely wrong.
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 85.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
 
I mean.. the HWRF & HMON are involved too... it's not just the NAM haha
 
from 12z Coamps page:

zzz2.gif
 
I'll believe it if the Euro shifts west.
Like I said it has, just not as much as that NAM run did…the NAM is probably too far west, but it’s not completely on an island by itself
 
icon basically the same, a bit stronger through 27 hours... Icon has been a good peek into what the euro eventually shows the last couple days.
 
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