Looks like the center is very close to the tip of W Cuba
Yeah it’s hard to tell for sure because the stronger convection is still having a problem wrapping around it.Looks like the center is very close to the tip of W Cuba
Yeah still dealing with some shear, again the hurricane models have shown this. Tomorrow will be show time once that shear abatesYeah it’s hard to tell for sure because the stronger convection is still having a problem wrapping around it.
Looks like the tip tightened up the spin as the wind deflected off it.Looks like the burst might close that eye.![]()
I agree completely. Even with the shear the pressure is still dropping and some impressive cloud tops on the satellite image. It will be really interesting to see how fast it deepens tomorrow when the shear lets upYeah still dealing with some shear, again the hurricane models have shown this. Tomorrow will be show time once that shear abates
Seen that happen so many times, land interaction tightening up the rotation. Cool stuffLooks like the tip tightened up the spin as the wind deflected off it.
Didn’t that happen with Michael as it was close to the western tip of Cuba?Seen that happen so many times, land interaction tightening up the rotation. Cool stuff
Seems like it, I'm not good with those specifics (names, when, where, etc) LolDidn’t that happen with Michael as it was close to the western tip of Cuba?
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979 mb at 50kts which corresponds to 974 mb but with bias it's around 979 mb.
I know it’s a small piece of land, but definitely looks like center is going over some landLooks like the burst might close that eye.![]()
I know there are king tides in Charleston through 9/1Is it just me or is the storm surge forecast that TWC is showing seem very conservative especially since we are near a full moon? They are showing a max storm surge of 8-12 ft in the Big Bend area and 4-7 ft in Tampa Bay. The Big Bend area is very prone to surge due to the shape of the coastline and the continental shelf… some areas there had a surge of 6-7 feet from Michael even though it made landfall all the way over at Panama City. Tampa Bay had a 5-6 foot surge from TS Eta in 2020 and it passed to the west in a similar trajectory that this storm is forecast.
Don’t say it too loud. ShhhhDang. NAM is very far West.
This isn’t possible. Atlanta and GSP are supposed to be high and dry from this storm
Yeah this storm may actually be east of the forecast track now. This NAM run is most likely wrong.The NAM is most likely being the NAM. It's doing what it always does. Sucking.
That track through GA and SC is a big change though.Nam isn't too far off from the navy COAMPS or the 18z GFS landfall/track. So it's not alone in regards to that.
18z NAM kind of did it. But nothing else of note is doing it. Unless we see some of the other models jump on it in a bit, we can assume it's most likely wrong.That track through GA and SC is a big change though.
It’s not the first model to do that today. The GFS, Euro, UK and ICON have all been shifting west inland today…. Not as much as that NAM run but definitely noticeableThat track through GA and SC is a big change though.
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...22.0N 85.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
I'll believe it if the Euro shifts west.18z NAM kind of did it. But nothing else of note is doing it. Unless we see some of the other models jump on it in a bit, we can assume it's most likely wrong.
Like I said it has, just not as much as that NAM run did…the NAM is probably too far west, but it’s not completely on an island by itselfI'll believe it if the Euro shifts west.