Looks like the center is very close to the tip of W Cuba
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Tropical Hurricane Idalia
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
NoSnowATL
Member
Not surprising tho, almost all the hurricane models have this same look.
Yeah it’s hard to tell for sure because the stronger convection is still having a problem wrapping around it.
Yeah still dealing with some shear, again the hurricane models have shown this. Tomorrow will be show time once that shear abates
Stormsfury
Member
Looks like the tip tightened up the spin as the wind deflected off it.Looks like the burst might close that eye.
Most modeling has the ull to north moving out and a trough developing in W GOM tomorrow, should set the stage for much better environment. Probably be able to pinpoint a LF much better at that point
I agree completely. Even with the shear the pressure is still dropping and some impressive cloud tops on the satellite image. It will be really interesting to see how fast it deepens tomorrow when the shear lets up
979 mb at 50kts which corresponds to 974 mb but with bias it's around 979 mb.
Seen that happen so many times, land interaction tightening up the rotation. Cool stuff
Didn’t that happen with Michael as it was close to the western tip of Cuba?
Seems like it, I'm not good with those specifics (names, when, where, etc) Lol
979 mb at 50kts which corresponds to 974 mb but with bias it's around 979 mb.
Looking at Franklin and this, I wonder if we will score Sub-910mb this year at some points. Pressures are running low.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I know it’s a small piece of land, but definitely looks like center is going over some landLooks like the burst might close that eye.
Is it just me or is the storm surge forecast that TWC is showing seem very conservative especially since we are near a full moon? They are showing a max storm surge of 8-12 ft in the Big Bend area and 4-7 ft in Tampa Bay. The Big Bend area is very prone to surge due to the shape of the coastline and the continental shelf… some areas there had a surge of 6-7 feet from Michael even though it made landfall all the way over at Panama City. Tampa Bay had a 5-6 foot surge from TS Eta in 2020 and it passed to the west in a similar trajectory that this storm is forecast.
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I know there are king tides in Charleston through 9/1
Don’t say it too loud. Shhhh
This isn’t possible. Atlanta and GSP are supposed to be high and dry from this storm
The NAM is most likely being the NAM. It's doing what it always does. Sucking.
RollTide18
Member
JHS
Member
Yeah this storm may actually be east of the forecast track now. This NAM run is most likely wrong.
JHS
Member
That track through GA and SC is a big change though.
I just find it interesting that GFS, COAMPS, and NAM are basically on top of each other track wise right now give or take some mileage for resolution.
ICON running, it's one of the further East models.. lets see.
ICON running, it's one of the further East models.. lets see.
JHS
Member
I'll believe it if the Euro shifts west.
it does appear like it's leaked eastward some. may be an optical illusion though if the vortex is tilted due to shear. would love to get recon in to establish some more center fixes
JHS
Member
NHC has it just inland in SC and exciting around Mrytle Beach.
Brent
Member
Recon would have been more clear if it was allowed to fly over Cuba...