Tropical Hurricane Idalia

[Ross]

yup some northerly shear this morning which is why the llc is so close to the edge of the cdo



enough to hinder expectations today and maybe expose the llc once or twice. who knows.. there may even be some unexpected tugs south as the llc tries to tuck itself further under the cdo

although I wouldn't call conditions "hostile", idalia won't have a clean pocket in its path to RI. there's still some guff in the gulf. the potential is based on the record setting SSTs

also. direct your attention to franklin, which got its act together in a major way this morning and is currently a solid cat 4. a deeper, stronger storm likely impacts the steering ridges some and could impact franklin's outflow channels (which could impart more shear on idalia).

will be interesting to track. with all due respect to the big bend locals, this is so far best case scenario from a population/insured losses standpoint. way more wildlife reserves than cities in that part. i'm sure homeowners in florida that have seen their insurance rocket upward and carriers flee the state will be diligently keeping track of that.

 

[iGRXY]

NAM is getting slower and slower with the storm and getting really close to being completely left by the trough over the NE.

 

[Stevo24]

NAM is getting slower and slower with the storm and getting really close to being completely left by the trough over the NE.

like how close

 

[alfoman]

12z GFS slightly more NW and a touch faster compared to the 6z track


Edit: ICON and GFS slightly faster evolution, NAM and CMC trend slightly slower -- Euro will bring some clarity as its still the east-most solution here

 

[ForsythSnow]

Across all 12z so far there has been a slowing trend. In perspective, not good for Florida if this has more time over water.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Across all 12z so far there has been a slowing trend. In perspective, not good for Florida if this has more time over water.

I like the little jump West so far. We need to keep this trend going.

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[iGRXY]

GFS has the storm basically getting cut off from the trough to the north once it makes landfall. Causing the storm to crawl to a hualt over SC.

 

[Rain Cold]

GFS has the storm basically getting cut off from the trough to the north once it makes landfall. Causing the storm to crawl to a hualt over SC.

This has been my worry, once we saw the initial signs of slowing. Still, it's not a guarantee. Hopefully, it will pick up some steam.

 

[BullCityWx]

This has been my worry, once we saw the initial signs of slowing. Still, it's not a guarantee. Hopefully, it will pick up some steam.

I think at least for our backyards, it means we wont have another Ian or Michael with this one.

 

[Chazwin]

This has been my worry, once we saw the initial signs of slowing. Still, it's not a guarantee. Hopefully, it will pick up some steam.

Definitely not a guarantee but certainly a real possibility. We should have figured when the Euro showed that stalling solution the other day that we could see this

 

[Chazwin]

I think at least for our backyards, it means we wont have another Ian or Michael with this one.

The problem is that if it stalls like the GFS is showing, this could be a major flooding event for a lot of folks

 

[KyloG]

For those hoping for some rain...decent shift on the UK

 

[BullCityWx]

The problem is that if it stalls like the GFS is showing, this could be a major flooding event for a lot of folks

That is a good point, especially for the low country. I am thinking that prevalent wind direction is going to pack the water into the marshes and into Downtown Charleston until it passes.

 

[mrdaddyman]

12z GFS slightly more NW and a touch faster compared to the 6z track


Edit: ICON and GFS slightly faster evolution, NAM and CMC trend slightly slower -- Euro will bring some clarity as its still the east-most solution here

We can add the UKMET to the slower camp.

 

[Chazwin]

That is a good point, especially for the low country. I am thinking that prevalent wind direction is going to pack the water into the marshes and into Downtown Charleston until it passes.

You’re right. A storm making landfall in the Big Bend area and moving into south GA can create significant storm surge in Charleston and Savannah… if I remember correctly Irma in 2017 did just that.

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[Stormsfury]

There's currently a small upper spin directly north of Idalia just south of the Panhandle of Florida on WV imagery, heights are rising in New England, and Franklin has camped into an absolute perfect environment thriving

 

[Showmeyourtds]

There's currently a small upper spin directly north of Idalia just south of the Panhandle of Florida on WV imagery, heights are rising in New England, and Franklin has camped into an absolute perfect environment thriv

I assume you're referring to this guy that I've got circled here? And that's helping Franklin vent and forcing Idalia to appear stationary? Or wobble? I dunno what y'all call it these days

 

[BHS1975]

View attachment 136549
I assume you're referring to this guy that I've got circled here? And that's helping Franklin vent and forcing Idalia to appear stationary? Or wobble? I dunno what y'all call it these days

It's also pushing a bit of dry air in as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Stormsfury]

Thats our upper trough currently. Tomorrow, there's supposed to be troughing in the Western GOM, which will turn the mid level flow more SW'erly and a lot more favorable than the current northerly push undercutting the upper outflow pattern establishing now.

That upper trough got Idalia moving N overnight, but the large death ridge further west is partly responsible for imparting N mid level shear.

Once this flips tomorrow, modest but favorable shearing forces will likely allow Idalia to properly wrap convection and develop a solid inner core structure.

View attachment 136549
I assume you're referring to this guy that I've got circled here? And that's helping Franklin vent and forcing Idalia to appear stationary? Or wobble? I dunno what y'all call it these days

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Euro is slower. There’s your trend

 

[BullCityWx]

HAFS at 12z is 20mb stronger at landfall at 926.5MB

 

[GoDuke]

HAFS at 12z is 20mb stronger at landfall at 926.5MB

East or west of previous run?

 

[RBR71]

HAFS at 12z is 20mb stronger at landfall at 926.5MB

The concerning thing about these insane model runs is, as Levi discusses in his most recent update, they all showed Idalia lopsided and not very organized at the moment, so they are almost spot on currently

 

[BullCityWx]

East or west of previous run?

dead center over its last run(Perry FL)

also should note it's the HAFS-B model

 

[RBR71]

dead center over its last run(Perry FL)

also should note it's the HAFS-B model

Yep

 

[Brent]

The concerning thing about these insane model runs is, as Levi discusses in his most recent update, they all showed Idalia lopsided and not very organized at the moment, so they are almost spot on currently

Yeah I ran the hwrf earlier and it actually has it looking worse than it does right now and still bombs it out tomorrow. Bad signs all around...

 

[NoSnowATL]

Per @GaWx - So, regarding the 12Z runs vs 0Z runs in summary for FL landfall, 4 of 5 shifted NW/left (though mainly slight other than UKMET's 65 mile shift) while the CMC is the lone model that shifted SE/right a bit.. Love ya Larry!

 

[packfan98]

Pretty good consensus on the 12z EPS

 

[weatherfide]

For those hoping for some rain...decent shift on the UK

View attachment 136546

Check out the sharp cut off on the NW side. That's what I'm talking about. You want to be on the N, E and S side if you are looking for rain in the interior from a TC. I'll be watching the low cloud deck from my porch, scoot off to the east and remain almost totally dry in Atlanta.

 

[iGRXY]

Check out the sharp cut off on the NW side. That's what I'm talking about. You want to be on the N, E and S side if you are looking for rain in the interior from a TC. I'll be watching the low cloud deck from my porch, scoot off to the east and remain almost totally dry in Atlanta.

There's going to be a lot of added moisture being pumped and an exiting trough that will help pull moisture NW. I'd expect the shield will be more expansive than what models are showing. Mesoscale should pick up on it better but it likely will still end up as a nowcasting thing. I'd expect upslope driven stuff around my neck of the woods that models aren't going to show for example.

 

[Stormsfury]

Tomorrow, once the mid level flow (shear) turn more favorably Southwest, that likely may happen. Jet dynamics along the stationary boundary to the north with upper diffluence around Idalia should set the stage for a PRE to take hold with copious amounts of moisture pooling from the boundary along with a strong moisture surge from Idalia.

 

[Chazwin]

Check out the sharp cut off on the NW side. That's what I'm talking about. You want to be on the N, E and S side if you are looking for rain in the interior from a TC. I'll be watching the low cloud deck from my porch, scoot off to the east and remain almost totally dry in Atlanta.

Lol… the heaviest rain totals on that map are to the northwest of the center track… like all TC from the Gulf. Also with the trough you should see a more expansive area of precip to the NW…. This is something we should start seeing on the mesoscale models.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Aside from watching a fascinating system, here in the Atlanta area, while we miss any big winds or rain from the storm, we will have some pleasant weather behind the storm to look forward to.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Aside from watching a fascinating system, here in the Atlanta area, while we miss any big winds or rain from the storm, we will have some pleasant weather behind the storm to look forward to.

I would think there would be copious amounts of moisture moving to the north of Idalia bringing tons of rain to Georgia, but i guess not unless you are in SE Georgia.

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 85.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES