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Tropical Hurricane Idalia
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
JHS
Member
Almost the classic track for lots rain of and maybe a few tornados for much of FL, GA, and the Carolinas if this holds up. Plenty of time though for this to take a different track or maybe not form at all. Maybe this could be what finally shakes up the overall pattern in the US if it gets strong enough. This could be a big problem though if it gets organized enough and does not run into a lot of shear. The gulf water is very warm and could really give this a boost.
I'm torn on what kind of strengthening I want this thing to do.
Stronger storms need less influence, while weaker ones need stronger pull. There looks like a trough, with modeling of various strengths dipping down and grabbing this thing.
I would like a big rain event in my back yard, so I'm selfishly hoping things slow on one side just enough to get a western track to bring it through GA/SC inland.
CMC has a weird track and it has making landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle. ICON has it making landfall in the Florida Bend as well. 
Don’t be surprised to see this tick west a bit. As we get to remember the hard way every winter; troughs are nearly always modeled too fast.
Idk, Ian kept on adjusting east last year. At one point in the medium range it was a big bend landfall. I'm unsure our well known winter axioms translate into the summer that cleanly
Much like this system, I am also a fan of hanging around Cancun for a couple of days not having my act together at all! Don't really see much here unless it can hit the Yucatan Channel with a head of steam and a pressure around 1001-1003ish
NoSnowATL
Member
Depends on the strength, stronger goes more N and W and weaker stays E and S. Looks like a weaker system is most likely per models.
The vorticity consolidation is going to be key as well. The cmc bombs convection North of the Yucatan which helps get it north faster which is west while the euro pulls it south towards convection so it's slower but stronger
iGRXY
Member
Relying on models for strength is not wise. Especially once systems get into the gulf. Even with shear they've shown to explode.
BHS1975
Member
Franklin has has constant very deep convection for weeks and is still a TS. Bath water means nothing if it can't stack up.
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iGRXY
Member
That's fine, but you take your chances against something making it in the gulf and not strengthening if you want to. I know better.
tractor girl
Member
This track puts it pretty much on target for my backyard. Will be interesting to keep watch on
The mcv from last night's storms along with a baggy trough in the northern gulf and other pieces of energy may try to consolidate into a weak ull to the north of this over the weekend. That'll put a decent wrench into into intensity and track as well
honestly i think i will take my chances; shear profile isn't fantastic for development and there's not really an anticyclone that could help with ventilation. also... it only has a day over the gulf?
personally think the ceiling is like 994/995 storm
iGRXY
Member
I definitely don't think anything crazy but most of the models have this basically as a tropical storm and I'm saying a higher end Cat 1 is a possibility. These storms the last 5 years have shown that once it's in the Gulf they want to be stronger than what models showed.honestly i think i will take my chances; shear profile isn't fantastic for development and there's not really an anticyclone that could help with ventilation. also... it only has a day over the gulf?
personally think the ceiling is like 994/995 storm
weather bubba
Member
I see this storm possibly becoming a weak Category 1 storm before landfall although I saw a chart on the Weather Channel from the EURO that gives it less than a ten percent chance of reaching that status this morning. The EURO does tend to underestimate storm intensity in the Gulf of Mexico. I hope it can become a rainmaker for the areas that need it like most of North Carolina.
There's a lot of moving parts with this potential system, and I do think we get a name at the minimum.
The ensemble means don't have much in the line of strength from it. The idea of the 06z GEFS and EPS to an extent is to have it kind of "absorbed" into the trough. At least from my maps.
I don't have access to individual member maps.
The ensemble means don't have much in the line of strength from it. The idea of the 06z GEFS and EPS to an extent is to have it kind of "absorbed" into the trough. At least from my maps.
I don't have access to individual member maps.
Models are never accurate this far out. The track can change dramatically.