• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Idalia

Shawn said:
View attachment 136417
Click to expand...
Almost the classic track for lots rain of and maybe a few tornados for much of FL, GA, and the Carolinas if this holds up. Plenty of time though for this to take a different track or maybe not form at all. Maybe this could be what finally shakes up the overall pattern in the US if it gets strong enough. This could be a big problem though if it gets organized enough and does not run into a lot of shear. The gulf water is very warm and could really give this a boost.
 
JHS said:
Almost the classic track for lots rain of and maybe a few tornados for much of FL, GA, and the Carolinas if this holds up. Plenty of time though for this to take a different track or maybe not form at all. Maybe this could be what finally shakes up the overall pattern in the US if it gets strong enough. This could be a big problem though if it gets organized enough and does not run into a lot of shear. The gulf water is very warm and could really give this a boost.
Click to expand...
I'm torn on what kind of strengthening I want this thing to do.

Stronger storms need less influence, while weaker ones need stronger pull. There looks like a trough, with modeling of various strengths dipping down and grabbing this thing.

I would like a big rain event in my back yard, so I'm selfishly hoping things slow on one side just enough to get a western track to bring it through GA/SC inland.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png
GFS playing catch up.
 
CMC has a weird track and it has making landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle. ICON has it making landfall in the Florida Bend as well. icon_mslp_pcpn_us_fh105-132.gifgem_mslp_pcpn_us_fh102-132.gif
 
Arcc said:
Don’t be surprised to see this tick west a bit. As we get to remember the hard way every winter; troughs are nearly always modeled too fast.
Click to expand...
Idk, Ian kept on adjusting east last year. At one point in the medium range it was a big bend landfall. I'm unsure our well known winter axioms translate into the summer that cleanly

Much like this system, I am also a fan of hanging around Cancun for a couple of days not having my act together at all! Don't really see much here unless it can hit the Yucatan Channel with a head of steam and a pressure around 1001-1003ish
 
NoSnowATL said:
Depends on the strength, stronger goes more N and W and weaker stays E and S. Looks like a weaker system is most likely per models.
Click to expand...
The vorticity consolidation is going to be key as well. The cmc bombs convection North of the Yucatan which helps get it north faster which is west while the euro pulls it south towards convection so it's slower but stronger
 
BHS1975 said:
Franklin has has constant very deep convection for weeks and is still a TS. Bath water means nothing if it can't stack up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
That's fine, but you take your chances against something making it in the gulf and not strengthening if you want to. I know better.
 
The mcv from last night's storms along with a baggy trough in the northern gulf and other pieces of energy may try to consolidate into a weak ull to the north of this over the weekend. That'll put a decent wrench into into intensity and track as well
 
iGRXY said:
That's fine, but you take your chances against something making it in the gulf and not strengthening if you want to. I know better.
Click to expand...
honestly i think i will take my chances; shear profile isn't fantastic for development and there's not really an anticyclone that could help with ventilation. also... it only has a day over the gulf?

gfs_uv200_watl_17.png

personally think the ceiling is like 994/995 storm
 
ILMRoss said:
honestly i think i will take my chances; shear profile isn't fantastic for development and there's not really an anticyclone that could help with ventilation. also... it only has a day over the gulf?

gfs_uv200_watl_17.png

personally think the ceiling is like 994/995 storm
Click to expand...
I definitely don't think anything crazy but most of the models have this basically as a tropical storm and I'm saying a higher end Cat 1 is a possibility. These storms the last 5 years have shown that once it's in the Gulf they want to be stronger than what models showed.
 
I see this storm possibly becoming a weak Category 1 storm before landfall although I saw a chart on the Weather Channel from the EURO that gives it less than a ten percent chance of reaching that status this morning. The EURO does tend to underestimate storm intensity in the Gulf of Mexico. I hope it can become a rainmaker for the areas that need it like most of North Carolina.
 
There's a lot of moving parts with this potential system, and I do think we get a name at the minimum.

The ensemble means don't have much in the line of strength from it. The idea of the 06z GEFS and EPS to an extent is to have it kind of "absorbed" into the trough. At least from my maps.

I don't have access to individual member maps.
 
Canadian right in the middle of the Euro and GFS.

PERFECT. :mad:
 
iGRXY said:
I definitely don't think anything crazy but most of the models have this basically as a tropical storm and I'm saying a higher end Cat 1 is a possibility. These storms the last 5 years have shown that once it's in the Gulf they want to be stronger than what models showed.
Click to expand...
tbh i misread your first message.. thought you were implying more than just "strengthening". i still don't think it gets its act together in time but if it is able to spend more time over water the next few days and consolidate then what you're saying is totally reasonable
 
93L actually looks really good from a structural standpoint. LLC and MLC are getting more aligned, but Mid-Level Vorticity appears to be stretched to the South. There's low pressure stretching from EPAC to 93. Also, we need to monitor whether the circulation passes through the Yucatan. I expect 93L to build convection over the next 18 hours, and the exact location of the COC will likely determine the potential with 93L.

I also think that the weakening of Franklin due to shear may work to provide 93L with some breathing room.
 
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better organized,
with increasing thunderstorm activity and a better-defined
low-level circulation. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week while it moves generally northward over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western
Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Click to expand...
40/80
 
ILMRoss said:
Idk, Ian kept on adjusting east last year. At one point in the medium range it was a big bend landfall. I'm unsure our well known winter axioms translate into the summer that cleanly

Much like this system, I am also a fan of hanging around Cancun for a couple of days not having my act together at all! Don't really see much here unless it can hit the Yucatan Channel with a head of steam and a pressure around 1001-1003ish
Click to expand...

I may be wrong, but I think Ian trended east because the trough off the east coast trended slower and grabbed it vs it just meandering westward. That said I wouldn’t bet on my memory.
 
Arcc said:
Not really a crazy solution with the models wanting to hang back that weakness/weak ULL over Texas.
Click to expand...
Yep! That would likely bring flooding to the Blue Ridge, depending on forward movement, with the moist S/SE flow. Will be interesting to track
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yep! That would likely bring flooding to the Blue Ridge, depending on forward movement, with the moist S/SE flow. Will be interesting to track
Click to expand...
It's ironic but last night I watched part of a documentary about the Great Flood of 1916 in Western North Carolina on PBS. One spot in the mountains got over 24 inches of rain in 24 hours. The French Broad River at one time was twenty feet above flood stage. That flood killed hundreds of people and devastated the economy in that part of the state. The Great Flood of 1916 was caused by two hurricanes that cut through the panhandle of Florida just weeks apart in July of that year. The tropical disturbance that everyone has its eye on could take a similar track and cause major issues if it develops to its full potential.
 
BHS1975 said:
What if the trough leaves it over the loop current for days?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
There's too much of a weakness for it to get left behind it'll ride the western edge of the Atlantic STR. As of right now I think the more possible but crazy random solution would be for it to round the ridge in the Atlantic and try to turn back SE
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top