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Tropical Hurricane Idalia

GFS wants to troll me this Friday.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_20.png
 
Canadian right in the middle of the Euro and GFS.

PERFECT. :mad:
 
iGRXY said:
I definitely don't think anything crazy but most of the models have this basically as a tropical storm and I'm saying a higher end Cat 1 is a possibility. These storms the last 5 years have shown that once it's in the Gulf they want to be stronger than what models showed.
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tbh i misread your first message.. thought you were implying more than just "strengthening". i still don't think it gets its act together in time but if it is able to spend more time over water the next few days and consolidate then what you're saying is totally reasonable
 
93L actually looks really good from a structural standpoint. LLC and MLC are getting more aligned, but Mid-Level Vorticity appears to be stretched to the South. There's low pressure stretching from EPAC to 93. Also, we need to monitor whether the circulation passes through the Yucatan. I expect 93L to build convection over the next 18 hours, and the exact location of the COC will likely determine the potential with 93L.

I also think that the weakening of Franklin due to shear may work to provide 93L with some breathing room.
 
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better organized,
with increasing thunderstorm activity and a better-defined
low-level circulation. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week while it moves generally northward over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western
Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
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40/80
 
ILMRoss said:
Idk, Ian kept on adjusting east last year. At one point in the medium range it was a big bend landfall. I'm unsure our well known winter axioms translate into the summer that cleanly

Much like this system, I am also a fan of hanging around Cancun for a couple of days not having my act together at all! Don't really see much here unless it can hit the Yucatan Channel with a head of steam and a pressure around 1001-1003ish
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I may be wrong, but I think Ian trended east because the trough off the east coast trended slower and grabbed it vs it just meandering westward. That said I wouldn’t bet on my memory.
 
Arcc said:
Not really a crazy solution with the models wanting to hang back that weakness/weak ULL over Texas.
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Yep! That would likely bring flooding to the Blue Ridge, depending on forward movement, with the moist S/SE flow. Will be interesting to track
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yep! That would likely bring flooding to the Blue Ridge, depending on forward movement, with the moist S/SE flow. Will be interesting to track
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It's ironic but last night I watched part of a documentary about the Great Flood of 1916 in Western North Carolina on PBS. One spot in the mountains got over 24 inches of rain in 24 hours. The French Broad River at one time was twenty feet above flood stage. That flood killed hundreds of people and devastated the economy in that part of the state. The Great Flood of 1916 was caused by two hurricanes that cut through the panhandle of Florida just weeks apart in July of that year. The tropical disturbance that everyone has its eye on could take a similar track and cause major issues if it develops to its full potential.
 
BHS1975 said:
What if the trough leaves it over the loop current for days?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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There's too much of a weakness for it to get left behind it'll ride the western edge of the Atlantic STR. As of right now I think the more possible but crazy random solution would be for it to round the ridge in the Atlantic and try to turn back SE
 
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