accu35
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Weak steering?
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Tropical Hurricane Idalia
- Thread starter weather nerd
- Start date
It’s not strong steering but it also doesn’t look weak enough to keep it sitting there for two days either.
Brent
Member
The official
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the
system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Users
are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day
intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future
forecasts.
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the
system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Users
are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day
intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future
forecasts.
NoSnowATL
Member
Looks like they are going with the euro 100%
So a weak cat 1 at landfall?
Looks like a lot of rain here next week.
Looks like a lot of rain here next week.
Lots of uncertainty as they noted in their discussion, so anything possible atm
The water is very warm around it.. and it should be moving fairly fast when the trough starts to swing through.. SO..... in theory.. it could be a great deal stronger.
I think the main take away today is that, this is not going to be a weak sheared out mess that the GFS held onto for quite a while.
Yes, it could blow up very quickly for sure. That's the way it's been with storms in the Gulf the last few years.
Definitely a lean towards it… the Euro is right along the coastline. That track would have a lot of heavy rain for much of the Carolinas
HugeSnowStick
Member
Going to Panama City to Atlanta, NE ward.
NoSnowATL
Member
Hopefully but PCB looks to be too far west per the models. I’m ok with some clouds and breezy conditions. Hopefully we can get 1-2in out of it.
Give me a cat 5 straight up I85.
Shaggy
Member
Tornado threat as well
crap
I think Panama City is a good possibility. If it’s around there, I think the center would go southeast of the Atlanta area on a track similar to Michael’s
So we've heard
JHS
Member
A tropical storm going up through the mountains would work just as well for rain and not cause nearly the problems as a cat 5 would. Take a look at what Beryl from 1994 did. Never was a hurricane, but it dropped lots of rain in the upstate.
That was my thinking too in a post I made yesterday. Now I believe that top end potential for this system since it has developed faster than expected is a weak Cat 3 storm. I feel it will reach hurricane status before reaching Florida and top winds will be around 100 MPH at landfall
making it a Cat 2. I hope we do get the track shown on the NHC track forecast map. Central North Carolina could certainly use the rain!
We've all seen what can happen to these systems in the Gulf over the last several years. The high-end potential is well...pretty significant but could also not pan out as bad as the tropical models are showing. Anywhere from NOla to to SW Florida could be a target IMO while the system meanders around - just have to wait and see
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Atlanta would be on the dry side if it moves Southeast of Atlanta right ?
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According to most of the guidance I've seen, yes. The core would need to move north of Macon for Atlanta to get under the heavy rain shield. All signs point to the core going south of Macon and more toward Valdosta to Savannah, at best. This will be a cooler than normal, breezy day in Atlanta with not much rain. Better hope for some cold front induced, afternoon thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, because that's all we are going to get.
No as I posted earlier if you look at what happens to tropical systems when the make landfall on the Gulf Coast, the axis of heaviest rain is to the north and northwest of the center while the best chance for tornadoes would be to the northeast and east of the center… if you look at the radar images of any Gulf storm after landfall, this is clearly seen.
Plus upslope in the favored areas enhances this.
Look at my post above and then go and pull up the radar images of Gulf storms after landfall.
Shaggy
Member
Gefs is east of op and not dissimilar to the icon
Is there any way you can show the Icon… I’ve been trying to pull it up and can’t get it to load for some reason
Shaggy
Member
Yeah it's 997mb into Tampa area so further south into Florida then decent way out into the Atlantic.
Attachments
iGRXY
Member
No. There’s a front associated here as well that would pull the moisture axis West and NW orientated. Especially as it weakens
Also weaker. I can’t imagine that we only have a 997mb storm with the environment and warm water it’s moving into. Something close to the Euro and perhaps a bit to the west seem more plausible
Shaggy
Member
I’ve had the same trouble with the UK as I’ve had with the Icon. A blend of the Euro/GFS and their ensembles along with the Icon really does look reasonable and it’s obviously what the NHC went with in their first advisory.
Brent
Member
One thing for sure the radar presentation has been rather amazing today considering what we expected even yesterday and it's stalled over the best water in the entire Atlantic til Monday basically
Ukie crawls inland and would be big time rain maker, central NC folks would love this
There’s definitely some enhancement from the stalled out front with that look.
Shaggy
Member
Looks like interaction with the Yucatan is becoming more likely. If it does go ashore and there's any flare ups over the strait i wonder if it would pull it back offshore or try to relocate a center.
Henry2326
Member
In the bullseye way too early. This one looks like a coastal hugger. FL panhandle, Southern GA, re-emerge off the SE coast.