I really think the key is on this organizing over the water today instead of being over land. It’s kinda worrisome that it’s basically going to be over water 24-36 longer than what models were showing yesterday
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Tropical Hurricane Idalia
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
And any slight shifts west keep it over water a tad longer too, all bad signs
I agree. I think if things continue to develop as we’ve seen today, the area from New Orleans east to the Big Bend is most likely where it’s heading.
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buckinbronco
Member
This wouldn’t be ideal for St. George Island if it came to fruition
iGRXY
Member
I don’t want to say I told you so or count the chickens before they hatch, but it was forecasted to move over the warmest waters in the Caribbean Sea and going into a scorching GOM this is not very surprising seeing this rapid organization. A stronger storm also favors more western movement. Even I got to admit I didn’t think it was going through look this food this fast. This definitely has a shot to be a good bit stronger than even I originally thought.
Much of Florida under state of emergency as possible tropical storm forms in Gulf of Mexico
Much of Florida is under a state of emergency as a tropical storm is possibly forming in the Gulf of Mexico
abcnews.go.com
BHS1975
Member
Micheal 2?
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This would be Idalia if it gets named next correct? I mentioned it before in the past, but beware “I” named storms. We got a really ? track record when it comes to named storms that start with the letter “I”.
Isabel
Ivan
Ike
Irene
Irma
Ida
Ian
Isabel
Ivan
Ike
Irene
Irma
Ida
Ian
I could agree more. I’ve kept thinking while watching the models several days ago only showing this maxing out as a strong tropical storm to minimal hurricane how they were showing the same thing a few years ago with Michael at that stage. Now unfortunately I can’t help but notice the similarities in Michael’s path compared to forecasts on this.
MichaelAndrews
Member
I’m glad I’m not the only one who sees this and think it’s Michael again
Snowlover87
Member
I wonder whether it being Late August vs October would make a difference. I imagine the waters are warmer than it was when Michael was in the Gulf.
DustinWx
Moderator
That was a very hot summer. It was over 100 degrees in the south, in October that year. Michael allowed for the first cool down of the fall.
I actually think the water temperatures are very similar to when Michael came in… maybe a degree or two warmer now. You got to remember that in 2018, there had been absolutely no cool weather to speak before Michael and all of September and the first few days of October has just been an extended summer for the entire southeast. Coincidentally it was Micheal that caused the pattern to flip.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
12Z globals with a sizeable shift west. 18Z model track follow suit.
Snowlover87
Member
I wish this system would do the same and cause the pattern to flip but I guess Early September is too early to expect a lot of cool air.
While I’m the first to say the similarities can be seen, let’s remember that Michael literally had everything possible going for it on its approach to the coast. That RI cycle started at just the right time so that it hit max strength right at the moment of its landfall… something that I can only recall happening 3 times in my lifetime (Hugo going into SC, Andrew going into south Florida, and then Michael)