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Tropical Hurricane Idalia

Deep convection over LLC, looking ready for takeoff

Radar shows thunderstorms wrapping up the SE side of the apparent circulation. Any intensification over the 12 hours will up intensity forecasts once its in the Gulf

Must have worked out some of the dry air intrusion coming from the SW flow off the Yucatan too.
 
For those who want this on a panhandle to GA to WNC route, it is going to have to get moving quickly...(IMO that route is trending less and less, mainly because of the reform East/movement more over the water vs the Yuc). I think this is a Tampa to Orlando to JAX to ILM route.
Been looking like that for a while. It needed to be already moving north by now. Likely, the only way for it to end up west now is to slow down more and then the trough will swing by before it fully kicks it out east. That could lead to a stall and flooding, though. That said, it will most likely it will end up on the eastern envelope and then OTS.
 
For those who want this on a panhandle to GA to WNC route, it is going to have to get moving quickly...(IMO that route is trending less and less, mainly because of the reform East/movement more over the water vs the Yuc). I think this is a Tampa to Orlando to JAX to ILM route.
If I had to guess right now, I would say closer to the Big Bend area. I actually think that the current NHC looks about right considering what we can see right now. I do still think rain on the northern side will be much more expansive than what the Euro is showing. I definitely think that at least a category 3 at landfall is a definite possibility.
 
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Looks like the center is almost completely surrounded - that took an hour
 
Speaking of the west to east shifts, also depends on where the lift off will be. If she decides to loop back to the west before the turn that could change thing track wise. Gfs shows this NNW in the gulf before the turn.
 
Speaking of the west to east shifts, also depends on where the lift off will be. If she decides to loop back to the west before the turn that could change thing track wise. Gfs shows this NNW in the gulf before the turn.
Also wonder what a slightly more west Franklin means. Could the ridge be stronger also slowing the trough a bit. Still lots of kinks to work out
 
I don't know for sure, but my **GUESS** is that NHC will slight adjust again East on track.
 
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