They may up the peak strength up to upper-end Cat 2 since the Euro came in stronger. 965 mb.
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Tropical Hurricane Idalia
- Thread starter $alt
- Start date
The two storms are getting so close, might be a Fujiwara affect at some point?
It looks to me like the 18z GFS and the 18z Euro line up pretty well with the current forecast track.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah euro definitely a tick to the west
Obviously still 48 hrs out but it looks like models are really starting to converge around Cedar Key
Euro was a bit slower with the trough
Shaggy
Member
If Franklin keeps crawling west it may mean a slower trough is the right idea
Very possible. Looking at the radar and satellite the past couple hours, the center seems to be moving more westward than anything. The GFS has been having it start with a NNW motion while other models have been east of due north.
NCSNOW
Member
Stay on it. Ill be back down in Brunswick co Thurs, Friday. Fast mover, exit and Franklin my cause some tide problems
Franklin appears to be turning northward now, I doubt we see any big swings in forecast track from here on out imho
Shaggy
Member
Yeah the icon and euro have shown this general track now for quite a while. Need the Euro intensity for here though. I'd be looking at TS force gusts I think with the. 18z
NoSnowATL
Member
It should be noted that the 00z have incorporated data from NOAA synoptic flights and low-level data from the storm. Given the rather tight cluster within the modeling, and considering we're some 72 hours or so from landfall, I wouldn't expect more than small adjustments in the forecast track.
That said, RI while still in the NW Caribean, if it occurs(earlier than forecast) may swing the track back west some by pumping the ULL ridge more and slowing the southern extent of the approaching long-wave ULL trough.
That said, RI while still in the NW Caribean, if it occurs(earlier than forecast) may swing the track back west some by pumping the ULL ridge more and slowing the southern extent of the approaching long-wave ULL trough.
Brent
Member
Idalia is sitting over very warm waters of about 30 degrees
Celsius, and when it moves northward, it will be over the even
deeper warm waters of the Loop Current in 24-36 hours. Although
the trough over the Gulf could impart some shear over the system,
this is likely to be offset by upper-level diffluence. Idalia has
already strengthened more than anticipated, and the environment
looks ripe for additional intensification, possibly rapid. The NHC
intensity forecast has been increased and lies at the upper bound of
the guidance. The new prediction now shows a 95-kt hurricane over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed
that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is
becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast
of Florida. Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch
areas are urged to prepare for possible significant impacts and
monitor future updates to the forecast.
Celsius, and when it moves northward, it will be over the even
deeper warm waters of the Loop Current in 24-36 hours. Although
the trough over the Gulf could impart some shear over the system,
this is likely to be offset by upper-level diffluence. Idalia has
already strengthened more than anticipated, and the environment
looks ripe for additional intensification, possibly rapid. The NHC
intensity forecast has been increased and lies at the upper bound of
the guidance. The new prediction now shows a 95-kt hurricane over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed
that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is
becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast
of Florida. Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch
areas are urged to prepare for possible significant impacts and
monitor future updates to the forecast.