They have retired a lot of I names, it’s getting dudficult to come up with ‘l’ names
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Tropical Hurricane Idalia
- Thread starter weather nerd
- Start date
12K already coming in east of 12Z. 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, and now 18Z have all stepped east, in terms of landfall.
Kinda pointless to speak pressures based on models like the NAM but 920s showing up early on per 3KM. Stronger storm will pull East one would think.
edit: 914mb
edit: 914mb
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Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Is some of this rain in Alabama and Georgia right now the outer bands of Idalia ?
NewnanWetather
Member
No it is not
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
It's moving from South to North so thats why I was wondering.
It looks to me like it may be the beginning of a PRE event
NCSNOW
Member
Latest GOM IR Loop
www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov
View of both: What a Beaut!
GOES-19 - Sector view: Gulf of America - Band 13 - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
View of both: What a Beaut!
Another I’m noticing is that it’s moving a bit faster over land… at least through hour 30 which is all I’ve got up to now. It’s about 30-40 miles further NE at 0z Thursday than it was on the last run. So that tells me, the more it slows down after landfall, the further inland in SC it should be. Either way, I doubt expect the center to be more than 35-40 miles inland in SC.
Models are doing the back and forth dance with it going west one run and back east the next.
Yes… it definitely looks like a PRE developing. None of the models have really picked up on it which is fairly typical. It’ll be interesting to see how far north it moves… it’s got plenty of juicy air ahead of it.
NCSNOW
Member
West to East wobbles, maybe why NHC hasn’t updated their track? ??
NoSnowATL
Member
I wouldn't look at the nam for tropical systems.
Very interesting reading on the NWS Tallahassee site… there has never been a major hurricane to make landfall in Appalachee Bay in recorded history.
NoSnowATL
Member
18z should tell us everything we need.West to East wobbles, maybe why NHC hasn’t updated their track? ??
NCSNOW
Member
Saw this Graph. Passing along
NoSnowATL
Member
The NHC track says it should be moving NE any moment. Its moving N if not NNW.
970.5 mb.
Just a thought, but could how strong Franklin has gotten helped to strengthen the ridge between the two storms and causing Idalia to stay further west longer?
NoSnowATL
Member
I think so.
Brent
Member
Not much strengthening yet... But from what I remember most of the explosive intensification has always been at night
NoSnowATL
Member
All the hurricane models show it going boom tonight.
Stormsfury
Member
Yes, a small s/w ridge developed between Franklin and Idalia, transient though.
NoSnowATL
Member
Closest model when it comes to location/ MB strength looks to be the GFS.
Looking the 12z Euro and the 18z NAM3k are actually pretty much in lock step with each other through hour 30 in terms of both track and speed. At that time the 3kNAM really starts to slow down the speed as the trough begins to pull away and the Euro keeps it the speed up not slowing until it gets off shore. So the NAM brings center up slowly through SC about 30 miles or so inland to about Florence while the Euro keeps the center on shore but closer to the coast and exits around Myrtle Beach.
Yessir
12z
18z
12z
18z
Question for knowledge and not a statement. If they moved the track west and the ridge to the east of Florida is stronger and the trough is pulling out faster how is the track pretty much the same with a westward update?
The cone looks a tad more north and west into NC.
Stormsfury
Member
Because it makes a sharp turn around the shortwave ridge...
This actually looks pretty good considering the trends in the modeling the last 18 hours and looks weighted to the latest guidance. They have obviously adjusted the landfall point to further north up the coast and made the adjustments to the storm surge forecasts.
Hot towers going up with lightning in E eyewall. Should be interesting what recon finds
Looks like the eye is about to clear out before we lose visible imagery.
NoSnowATL
Member
Same location, Faster and weaker. GFS 18z
Just about show time.
Very close to the 12z Euro. Exits off near Myrtle Beach around 12z Thursday. Also much more expansive rainfall to the northwest of the center… rain all the way back to the mountainsSame location, Faster and weaker. GFS 18z
Cat 3 winds in the mid-levels.
964 mb per latest NOAA recon which corresponds to 969 mb. Also 103 kt flight level winds and 84 kt SFMR winds.