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Tropical Hurricane Idalia

ForsythSnow said:
Something else that's generally alarming when you take a look at the upper level wind development across the hurricane models is once it's a few hundred miles from the big bend, it undergoes intensification up to landfall. What I can tell is it RI's and undergoes ERC mid-gulf before intensifying more afterwards, per the models. Any different ways it could play out will likely alter the intensity modeling and forecasts drastically as well as impacts. All down to how fast this thing can intensify.
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That’s one of those timing issues that we never see worked out until we’re within a few hours of landfall. You’re right though that everything from an environment standpoint indicates that this should strengthen right up until landfall.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Something else that's generally alarming when you take a look at the upper level wind development across the hurricane models is once it's a few hundred miles from the big bend, it undergoes intensification up to landfall. What I can tell is it RI's and undergoes ERC mid-gulf before intensifying more afterwards, per the models. Any different ways it could play out will likely alter the intensity modeling and forecasts drastically as well as impacts. All down to how fast this thing can intensify.
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Personally speaking; (not a forecast) I do not think that Tampa Bay proper is out of the woods yet; Even. Very finicky setup.
 
It won't take too much more slowing to get this thing stuck inland somewhere, probably over SC, as the trough departs. The 6z GFS leaves it behind just offshore. I mentioned this as a possibility yesterday, but if this isn't a blip and is indeed a trend, some parts of the SE could see some pretty spectacular rainfall totals. We'll see.
 
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Shawn said:
Personally speaking; (not a forecast) I do not think that Tampa Bay proper is out of the woods yet; Even. Very finicky setup.
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I think that since it’s been moving north steadily since midnight, a direct hit on Tampa is looking less likely, but still some time before we know final details
 
I always thought this thing would be stronger than a Cat 1 the water temps are just off the charts I haven't looked at shear yet this morning. I could see a low end Cat 4 by the time it makes landfall.
 
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