• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Idalia

yup some northerly shear this morning which is why the llc is so close to the edge of the cdo

1693229581712.png

enough to hinder expectations today and maybe expose the llc once or twice. who knows.. there may even be some unexpected tugs south as the llc tries to tuck itself further under the cdo

although I wouldn't call conditions "hostile", idalia won't have a clean pocket in its path to RI. there's still some guff in the gulf. the potential is based on the record setting SSTs

also. direct your attention to franklin, which got its act together in a major way this morning and is currently a solid cat 4. a deeper, stronger storm likely impacts the steering ridges some and could impact franklin's outflow channels (which could impart more shear on idalia).

will be interesting to track. with all due respect to the big bend locals, this is so far best case scenario from a population/insured losses standpoint. way more wildlife reserves than cities in that part. i'm sure homeowners in florida that have seen their insurance rocket upward and carriers flee the state will be diligently keeping track of that.
 
NAM is getting slower and slower with the storm and getting really close to being completely left by the trough over the NE.
 
12z GFS slightly more NW and a touch faster compared to the 6z track


Edit: ICON and GFS slightly faster evolution, NAM and CMC trend slightly slower -- Euro will bring some clarity as its still the east-most solution here
 
Last edited:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_8.png
 
iGRXY said:
GFS has the storm basically getting cut off from the trough to the north once it makes landfall. Causing the storm to crawl to a hualt over SC.
Click to expand...
This has been my worry, once we saw the initial signs of slowing. Still, it's not a guarantee. Hopefully, it will pick up some steam.
 
Rain Cold said:
This has been my worry, once we saw the initial signs of slowing. Still, it's not a guarantee. Hopefully, it will pick up some steam.
Click to expand...
Definitely not a guarantee but certainly a real possibility. We should have figured when the Euro showed that stalling solution the other day that we could see this
 
Chazwin said:
The problem is that if it stalls like the GFS is showing, this could be a major flooding event for a lot of folks
Click to expand...
That is a good point, especially for the low country. I am thinking that prevalent wind direction is going to pack the water into the marshes and into Downtown Charleston until it passes.
 
alfoman said:
12z GFS slightly more NW and a touch faster compared to the 6z track


Edit: ICON and GFS slightly faster evolution, NAM and CMC trend slightly slower -- Euro will bring some clarity as its still the east-most solution here
Click to expand...

We can add the UKMET to the slower camp.

UKMET_MSLP10mAGLWindTrendLoop_MA_2023-08-28_12Z_FHr108-84_PW.gif

UKMET_500mbHeightAnomalyTrendLoop_US_2023-08-28_12Z_FHr108-84_PW.gif
 
Last edited:
BullCityWx said:
That is a good point, especially for the low country. I am thinking that prevalent wind direction is going to pack the water into the marshes and into Downtown Charleston until it passes.
Click to expand...
You’re right. A storm making landfall in the Big Bend area and moving into south GA can create significant storm surge in Charleston and Savannah… if I remember correctly Irma in 2017 did just that.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top