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Tropical Hurricane Idalia
- Thread starter $alt
- Start date
NCSNOW
Member
Cuba land interaction is only hurdle left to save day or minimize massive effects southern big bend area LF
been recalibrating after attending a bachelor party and not being clued in for 48 hours. obviously it seems the llc getting offshore quickly completely changed the calculus. i did not think this thing would get organized quickly... boy was i wrong
this is dangerous for the big bend, and it wouldn't take very many tugs east to become a big deal in a hurry for tampa. current satellite presentation is excellent. now that we're dealing with a legit entity and not a pile of scraps from the yucatan, i'm unsure what the ceiling is with this storm but it is probably higher than you think.
this is dangerous for the big bend, and it wouldn't take very many tugs east to become a big deal in a hurry for tampa. current satellite presentation is excellent. now that we're dealing with a legit entity and not a pile of scraps from the yucatan, i'm unsure what the ceiling is with this storm but it is probably higher than you think.
I agree! Big bend to Tampa had better be ready. Tampa, like you said, could take this one on the chin directly.
Stormsfury
Member
Ironically, RGEM, GFS and a couple guidance ticked west and slower on the 00z runs, which I think include the high level RECON earlier
And no doubt this could make a big bend to SE GA to CHS exit out for sure.
Big question for me is when does it start pulling northward and at what strength.
Official forecast major as approaches FL, wording in NHC is concerning as they acknowledge this is being conservative
iGRXY
Member
overnight guidance has definitely shifted west a bit and looking at the H5 maps this thing is getting dangerously close to missing out on the trough as it kicks east. All the talk of the south movement giving the trough time to kick it east has now turned into the south trend and southeast wobbling of the storm is quickly giving it a chance to be missed by the trough all together
NCSNOW
Member
Thing has a long shot of staying Hurricane entire time over land. Looks like it may spend 18 hours max, before being able to get back over water. I'm curious how it throws moisture back NW as it weakens over land, like they normally do during these transitions. Its swampy in SE GA ( Ocefenoke swamp)
We have some flies in the ointment.
I will say the new 06z GFS stalls the system off the coast after initial landfall, spins it around, and sends it's remnants back inland.
We aren't done with model shifts yet.. that's for sure.
I will say the new 06z GFS stalls the system off the coast after initial landfall, spins it around, and sends it's remnants back inland.
We aren't done with model shifts yet.. that's for sure.
Brick Tamland
Member
Blowing up rapidly to become a major has become the norm now for storms in the Gulf. The NHC track looks better for NC, but we could use the rain. Of course the track could shift back farther west with how the models have gone back a bit west overnight.
HWRF has a powerful can whose track has shifted a little westward.
Left behind, to aimlessly wander around with heights shortly rebuilding around it
View attachment 136537
Several members send it back over central Florida after a loop.
Looking at the model runs overnight along with the 6z GFS here’s some things that stand out.
1. Models are definitely ticking back further west which could once again put the Big Bend area back into the right front quadrant of the storm… with a major hurricane now looking increasingly likely, this could be a huge storm surge given how prone that area is.
2. If it does make landfall as a major and maintains forward speed as forecast over land, there is a serious possibility that it could maintain hurricane strength through southeast Georgia before exiting off the SC coast… it would be moving over a lot of flat swampy areas that would allow a storm to maintain strength a little longer.
3. The 6z GFS is now showing the trough leaving the storm behind and stalling it off the SE coast… this is something that the EURO showed the other day.
1. Models are definitely ticking back further west which could once again put the Big Bend area back into the right front quadrant of the storm… with a major hurricane now looking increasingly likely, this could be a huge storm surge given how prone that area is.
2. If it does make landfall as a major and maintains forward speed as forecast over land, there is a serious possibility that it could maintain hurricane strength through southeast Georgia before exiting off the SC coast… it would be moving over a lot of flat swampy areas that would allow a storm to maintain strength a little longer.
3. The 6z GFS is now showing the trough leaving the storm behind and stalling it off the SE coast… this is something that the EURO showed the other day.
The runs are slowing down more and more too.. Like we are talking substatial speed changes within 06 hourly model runs vs their previous. There's definitely a struggle going on here.
The GEFS MSLP cluster is getting tighter and more confined vs previous runs.. which is expected I "guess" , but more so within 00z vs 06z only is a bit telling that something has been ingested. Are they feeding the recon data directly into/yet?
This will be a good resource to start paying attention to over the next 12-24 hours: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt10L.html
The "centers" cloud tops have dramatically cooled over night.
The "centers" cloud tops have dramatically cooled over night.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Something else that's generally alarming when you take a look at the upper level wind development across the hurricane models is once it's a few hundred miles from the big bend, it undergoes intensification up to landfall. What I can tell is it RI's and undergoes ERC mid-gulf before intensifying more afterwards, per the models. Any different ways it could play out will likely alter the intensity modeling and forecasts drastically as well as impacts. All down to how fast this thing can intensify.