iGRXY
Member
I definitely think we have a storm over 100mph now.
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Tropical Hurricane Idalia
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
Recon should be in the storm around 4 PM.
They are putting it at 90mph with the 2pm ET update, but I think you’re right. It looks like it’s going bombs away now.
Honestly around 90mph looks right based on IR. Looks to be more steady strengthening as this point. The big show should start late tonight.
Nerman
Member
Euro moved to the western edge of the cone
Yeah I see no reason NHC does not shift their track west some at this point. I don't think there is a single model left that has it going over their track
NoSnowATL
Member
NHC will nudge the cone west tonight. I mean which model went east at 12z? No way they leave it as is with this west support.
Right on time ?
Just food for thought, that IR is so similar to Harvey, Michael, Ida and Ian at this stage. Almost the same bumbling look that never fully closes off the eyewall yet allows for steady strengthening until the storm pulls it all together before landfall; thus the ERC comes too late. Not good.
BHS1975
Member
Tallahasse bout to get flattened.
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I think we're at the point now where we should just expect systems in the Gulf to do this.
The interesting part is for close to two decades it was the opposite. You always had gulf storms weakening at landfall. Very interesting cycle somewhere in here.
Edit: Now Charley was the outlier.
BHS1975
Member
Folks gonna have to build concrete and stone houses.
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HugeSnowStick
Member
I told you guys last night this was going to go more westerly.
Bouy 42026 is approximately the same distance east of the center as Tampa will be later tonight. Tampa once again looks to dodge the bullet.
www.ndbc.noaa.gov
NDBC - Station 42026 Recent Data
National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from buoy 42026 (25.171N 83.475W) - C22 - Loop Current Pressure Point Buoy, 70m Isobath.
I think it’s due to them moving it every update in the past. I agree that it’s definitely west of guidance though!
You still going Panama City to Atlanta?
NCSNOW
Member
Who came up with this name? seriously, never heard of it and I have many Amigas/Amigos.
Brent
Member
It doesn't help were running out of I names so many have been retired
HugeSnowStick
Member
Maybe not that far west. Apalachicola, then NNE.
HugeSnowStick
Member
More of an Italian name, very popular there
GoDuke
Member
Never heard of an Idalia onion?
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
My aunt's middle name is Idalia
accu35
Member
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Levi mentioned in his video she might not go as far east as forecast due to the ridge building back in
JHS
Member
It is going west for landfall but farther south and east up in the Carolinas. The Euro has it back offshore close to Georgetown now.
iGRXY
Member
Shetley is bittercasting like usual. I thought @packfan98 made a post earlier today about posting no sense in this thread.
Ok I’ve just looked at the 12z Euro out to hour 57 and that is not the case. It still has it exiting right about Myrtle Beach, maybe just tad north of there. Also, GSP hasn’t put out their afternoon discussion yet, but they have gone ahead issues a Flash Flood Watch for the SC Upstate and the southern NC Piedmont for 2-4 inches of rainfall expected.
Shrimp. ?
Still strengthening nicely Probably gonna be around 115mph/960mb by the time the HH’s get there.
iGRXY
Member
I definitely could see 2-4" all across the upstate as we get some additional upslope my way and heavier returns back towards the southeast. Don't be surprised to see a line of 3-6" from Greenwood to Union and back towards Rock hill either.
NAM 3k picking up on heavier amounts in Central NC...probably why GSP is waiting on Disco and hoisting FFW.
Also I still don’t think that the EURO/UK combo is doing a very good job at expanding precip on the NW side. There’s a lot of dynamics at play that should spread rain back to the mountains at least for a time.
Yes…. I expect the 3k NAM and the HRRR as it gets closer will start to pick on heavier rain further to the north and west of the center.
It's showing some high amounts with the 12z run.
3k NAM at hour 60 --- 24 hour totals:
3k NAM
NewnanWetather
Member
Vidilla... but I think it's going more west then they think. I think models are missing something .
One thing to be careful of is, though it's easy to extrapolate a more westward and northward inland track, based on a more current westerly motion (and even a bit more of a westerly landfall) than the official forecast plot indicates, shortly after landfall, most models make a hard right and still eventually end up pretty close to the same track.
That doesn't mean the precip shield won't be somewhat more expansive to the north than some models might be showing currently. It's just that the center probably doesn't get as far north as central SC or anything like that, even if it's looking more west right now.
It's going to be interesting to see if the 3K keeps a similar precip depiction as far north and west as the image above over the next couple of runs. My guess is that it corrects the corridor of heavy rain to the south.