Stormsfury
Member
There's currently a small upper spin directly north of Idalia just south of the Panhandle of Florida on WV imagery, heights are rising in New England, and Franklin has camped into an absolute perfect environment thriving
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Tropical Hurricane Idalia
- Thread starter $alt
- Start date
Showmeyourtds
Member
I assume you're referring to this guy that I've got circled here? And that's helping Franklin vent and forcing Idalia to appear stationary? Or wobble? I dunno what y'all call it these days
BHS1975
Member
It's also pushing a bit of dry air in as well.
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Stormsfury
Member
Thats our upper trough currently. Tomorrow, there's supposed to be troughing in the Western GOM, which will turn the mid level flow more SW'erly and a lot more favorable than the current northerly push undercutting the upper outflow pattern establishing now.
That upper trough got Idalia moving N overnight, but the large death ridge further west is partly responsible for imparting N mid level shear.
Once this flips tomorrow, modest but favorable shearing forces will likely allow Idalia to properly wrap convection and develop a solid inner core structure.
That upper trough got Idalia moving N overnight, but the large death ridge further west is partly responsible for imparting N mid level shear.
Once this flips tomorrow, modest but favorable shearing forces will likely allow Idalia to properly wrap convection and develop a solid inner core structure.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Euro is slower. There’s your trend
HAFS at 12z is 20mb stronger at landfall at 926.5MB
GoDuke
Member
East or west of previous run?
The concerning thing about these insane model runs is, as Levi discusses in his most recent update, they all showed Idalia lopsided and not very organized at the moment, so they are almost spot on currently
Brent
Member
Yeah I ran the hwrf earlier and it actually has it looking worse than it does right now and still bombs it out tomorrow. Bad signs all around...
NoSnowATL
Member
packfan98
Moderator
Pretty good consensus on the 12z EPS
weatherfide
Member
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Check out the sharp cut off on the NW side. That's what I'm talking about. You want to be on the N, E and S side if you are looking for rain in the interior from a TC. I'll be watching the low cloud deck from my porch, scoot off to the east and remain almost totally dry in Atlanta.
iGRXY
Member
There's going to be a lot of added moisture being pumped and an exiting trough that will help pull moisture NW. I'd expect the shield will be more expansive than what models are showing. Mesoscale should pick up on it better but it likely will still end up as a nowcasting thing. I'd expect upslope driven stuff around my neck of the woods that models aren't going to show for example.
Stormsfury
Member
Tomorrow, once the mid level flow (shear) turn more favorably Southwest, that likely may happen. Jet dynamics along the stationary boundary to the north with upper diffluence around Idalia should set the stage for a PRE to take hold with copious amounts of moisture pooling from the boundary along with a strong moisture surge from Idalia.
Lol… the heaviest rain totals on that map are to the northwest of the center track… like all TC from the Gulf. Also with the trough you should see a more expansive area of precip to the NW…. This is something we should start seeing on the mesoscale models.
Aside from watching a fascinating system, here in the Atlanta area, while we miss any big winds or rain from the storm, we will have some pleasant weather behind the storm to look forward to.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I would think there would be copious amounts of moisture moving to the north of Idalia bringing tons of rain to Georgia, but i guess not unless you are in SE Georgia.
