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Tropical Hurricane Idalia

968 mb per NOAA dropshode.
ECUwBKM.png
 
Chazwin said:
Yes… it definitely looks like a PRE developing. None of the models have really picked up on it which is fairly typical. It’ll be interesting to see how far north it moves… it’s got plenty of juicy air ahead of it.
Click to expand...
Mesoscale models HRRR and WRF (00z run) picked up on it pretty well. Idk about recent runs this afternoon since I’ve been at work and trying to catch up.
 
966.1 mb per latest USAF pass.
000
URNT15 KNHC 292213
AF304 1110A IDALIA HDOB 23 20230829
220430 2626N 08438W 6967 02899 9680 +165 +121 124021 031 037 002 00
220500 2625N 08439W 6966 02896 9680 +163 +118 110010 016 024 001 00
220530 2623N 08440W 6973 02885 9682 +159 +120 293005 010 015 001 00
220600 2621N 08440W 6965 02891 9685 +153 +124 277017 020 021 000 00
220630 2620N 08440W 6974 02890 9699 +143 +136 279029 033 019 001 00
220700 2618N 08441W 6965 02905 9701 +149 +124 282035 036 /// /// 03
220730 2619N 08442W 6967 02905 9702 +151 +120 287028 033 /// /// 03
220800 2621N 08442W 6967 02894 9686 +154 +120 296023 026 021 001 03
220830 2622N 08441W 6963 02889 9669 +162 +117 292013 021 021 000 00
220900 2624N 08440W 6967 02878 9666 +160 +117 252003 008 019 001 00
220930 2626N 08440W 6969 02877 9662 +168 +109 099007 012 015 000 03
221000 2628N 08439W 6970 02879 9663 +168 +117 116020 024 014 000 00
221030 2628N 08438W 6961 02891 9661 +168 +106 123024 026 /// /// 03
221100 2626N 08438W 6968 02870 9661 +155 +128 125012 021 /// /// 03
221130 2625N 08439W 6965 02874 9661 +158 +125 296005 009 016 000 00
221200 2624N 08440W 6970 02877 9666 +161 +119 307015 020 019 001 00
221230 2623N 08442W 6967 02887 9672 +162 +119 307027 031 023 000 00
221300 2621N 08443W 6969 02895 9683 +163 +107 301033 035 027 001 00
221330 2620N 08444W 6963 02913 9708 +148 +124 301042 045 042 002 00
221400 2618N 08445W 6967 02926 9734 +140 //// 306060 063 063 002 05
$$
;
Click to expand...
 
Concentric 12 and 20 NM Eyes...

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 22:11Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 21:44:51Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.28N 84.74W
B. Center Fix Location: 180 statute miles (290 km) to the W (262°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 65° at 4kts (From the ENE at 5mph)
F. Eye Character: Ragged
G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
G. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 84kts (96.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (99°) of center fix at 21:41:47Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 181° at 103kts (From the S at 118.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix at 21:40:55Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64kts (73.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (244°) of center fix at 21:46:18Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 313° at 64kts (From the NW at 73.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (242°) of center fix at 21:47:27Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,458m (8,064ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,460m (8,071ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) from the flight level center at 21:40:55Z
 
5 pm NHC discussion:

■■■1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere
■■■between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida.

Life-threatening
storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.

Between the red and blue points.....

SCAR_Edited_Image_1244431071436737.jpg
 
Last edited:
962.4 mb per USAF.

322
URNT15 KNHC 292343
AF304 1110A IDALIA HDOB 32 20230829
233430 2640N 08430W 6959 02940 //// +106 //// 237092 097 074 022 01
233500 2641N 08431W 6968 02915 //// +109 //// 234079 088 084 015 01
233530 2642N 08433W 6970 02895 //// +111 //// 234057 075 084 015 01
233600 2643N 08434W 6976 02875 9692 +127 //// 229047 048 065 006 01
233630 2644N 08435W 6958 02888 9683 +137 //// 230040 048 047 004 01
233700 2645N 08437W 6966 02865 9660 +147 +132 224035 038 040 002 00
233730 2647N 08438W 6963 02859 9639 +158 +125 223022 030 036 002 00
233800 2648N 08439W 6969 02847 9634 +158 +128 260011 018 028 001 00
233830 2650N 08440W 6975 02833 9624 +163 +134 334005 010 022 000 03
233900 2651N 08440W 6951 02864 9633 +155 +134 118011 018 022 000 00
233930 2653N 08439W 6966 02855 9647 +152 +124 140027 029 024 000 03
234000 2652N 08437W 6968 02851 9643 +153 +123 151027 029 /// /// 03
234030 2651N 08439W 6964 02843 9627 +155 +123 146011 025 019 001 00
234100 2650N 08441W 6970 02836 9632 +150 +137 337016 023 023 002 00
234130 2648N 08442W 6957 02860 9653 +138 //// 324035 048 028 002 01
234200 2646N 08442W 6969 02868 9670 +142 +141 303062 063 /// /// 03
234230 2645N 08440W 6967 02868 9673 +140 //// 283055 064 /// /// 05
234300 2646N 08438W 6958 02864 9659 +134 //// 259044 051 /// /// 05
234330 2648N 08437W 6970 02837 9637 +145 +141 228026 038 029 001 03
234400 2649N 08438W 6968 02836 9625 +156 +129 230012 021 028 002 00
$$
;
 
Arcc said:
The look on IR is screaming big time intensification cycle coming.
Click to expand...
Always when you got new towers in the last part with the deep convection and cold tops and a few hours later it's going strong. Give it 6 hours or less and we'll be seeing a decent cat 3 I bet.
1693358946814.png

Edit, give it 30 minutes, recon finding far more intense winds now at FL and extrap FL pressure in the low 960s upper 950s.
 
411
URNT15 KWBC 300119
NOAA3 1210A IDALIA HDOB 28 20230830
010930 2712N 08409W 7508 02408 9891 +151 +185 182076 078 058 007 01
011000 2712N 08411W 7515 02389 9875 +155 +169 182080 081 058 012 01
011030 2712N 08413W 7513 02379 9861 +156 +171 186083 084 060 013 01
011100 2712N 08415W 7512 02369 9845 +157 +174 185085 086 064 009 01
011130 2712N 08418W 7515 02348 9828 +157 +175 184089 091 066 007 01
011200 2712N 08420W 7505 02337 9806 +155 +181 183095 098 069 010 01
011230 2712N 08422W 7501 02313 9772 +158 +257 187102 104 074 021 01
011300 2712N 08424W 7486 02297 9723 +168 +329 192102 110 075 032 01
011330 2712N 08426W 7503 02249 9685 +179 +341 195080 089 091 020 01
011400 2712N 08428W 7518 02211 9660 +184 +211 191067 076 090 017 01
011430 2712N 08430W 7514 02195 9628 +194 +184 187053 062 066 005 00
011500 2712N 08432W 7511 02188 9609 +200 +189 187032 045 051 004 00
011530 2712N 08434W 7509 02180 9597 +204 +180 182022 025 035 000 00
011600 2714N 08435W 7513 02177 9593 +210 +182 158025 026 /// /// 03
011630 2715N 08433W 7510 02191 9601 +210 +186 166027 028 /// /// 03
011700 2714N 08431W 7509 02192 9605 +206 +190 174038 045 038 003 00
011730 2713N 08429W 7504 02212 9635 +187 +191 193062 072 061 006 01
011800 2712N 08427W 7510 02234 9673 +179 +194 199080 084 078 010 01
011830 2712N 08425W 7512 02267 9710 +178 +192 200089 091 087 007 01
011900 2711N 08423W 7511 02297 9755 +166 +188 201099 100 088 006 01
Click to expand...
959.3 mb which translates to 957 mb via bias and then 962 mb, 110 flight level winds and 91 kt SFMR winds.
 
741
URNT15 KNHC 300133
AF304 1110A IDALIA HDOB 43 20230830
012430 2700N 08458W 6966 03055 9905 +116 +113 301045 047 043 003 00
012500 2701N 08457W 6967 03047 9895 +122 +103 304049 050 040 002 00
012530 2702N 08455W 6968 03040 9885 +122 +107 302051 052 041 004 00
012600 2703N 08454W 6965 03034 9889 +109 //// 301049 050 041 006 01
012630 2705N 08452W 6970 03019 9879 +108 //// 303052 053 048 013 01
012700 2706N 08451W 6966 03016 //// +099 //// 302053 055 053 008 01
012730 2707N 08450W 6966 03008 9837 +120 //// 304053 055 053 004 01
012800 2708N 08448W 6967 02991 9812 +135 +128 307052 054 055 002 00
012830 2710N 08447W 6969 02974 9800 +127 //// 313057 058 061 005 01
012900 2711N 08446W 6966 02961 9766 +146 +131 320058 059 064 003 00
012930 2712N 08444W 6962 02948 9739 +153 +119 322061 062 064 001 00
013000 2713N 08443W 6965 02920 9713 +154 +118 326059 061 061 002 00
013030 2714N 08442W 6967 02892 9686 +152 +128 327059 060 055 002 00
013100 2715N 08441W 6971 02861 //// +125 //// 324043 057 038 007 01
013130 2717N 08439W 6967 02849 9651 +140 //// 319021 033 034 005 01
013200 2718N 08438W 6966 02839 9641 +140 +130 260011 014 024 003 00
013230 2719N 08436W 6969 02831 9621 +157 +108 235005 010 020 001 00
013300 2721N 08436W 6978 02820 9620 +158 +108 078011 018 021 000 00
013330 2723N 08437W 6959 02848 9626 +155 +116 082023 029 023 000 03
013400 2724N 08435W 6971 02833 9640 +132 //// 101037 044 046 006 01
$$
Click to expand...
962 mb per USAF pass.
 
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