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Tropical Hurricane Idalia

Guess the looping back around and striking East Florida solution is no longer in the cards?
GFS gets it back this close

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png
 
I was looking right at it from Wilmington driving home from work, couldn’t tell where it was exactly but knew it was somewhere in front of me, probably closest I’ve ever been to one. I was expecting carnage with every passing intersection. My heart was pounding it was scary
 
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Unless my eyes are deceiving me, it seems the NAM may be on to something. Heavy axis of precip is working its way into wake now
If it gets that right let's see if it gets those winds right as well. Had some decent gust pretty far inland
 
Maybe they were confused and thought it was snow.

I think it has more to do with the uncertainty surrounding why the models keep showing a large area of TS force winds gust developing over central/eastern NC right around daybreak when buses would be running.

The NHC mentions this in their last disco...

model fields suggest that Idalia could interact with the aforementioned coastal front, with an area of
stronger winds developing along the boundary near eastern North Carolina during the day.
 
Wake County schools closed tomorrow for 1 to 2 inches of rain.
They’re not closed due to the rain I’m sure. I think the concern is the modeling that’s showing 50mph wind gusts at a time in which school buses would be on the road.
 
Center just moved off Bald Head Island & Cape Fear coast proper..

current obs
RAIN Winds
N @ 25MPH GUST too 38
Pressure 29.42 in
Visibility X
Clouds Cloudy
TEMP 73F
Dew Point 72 F
Humidity 94 %
Rainfall (ALOT)
 
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