Downeastnc
Member
Yikes
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Tropical Hurricane Idalia
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
lexxnchloe
Member
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
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- 3,895
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- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
I was looking right at it from Wilmington driving home from work, couldn’t tell where it was exactly but knew it was somewhere in front of me, probably closest I’ve ever been to one. I was expecting carnage with every passing intersection. My heart was pounding it was scary
Wake County schools closed tomorrow for 1 to 2 inches of rain.
It's completely ridiculous. What are we even doing?
Cary_Snow95
Member
Unless my eyes are deceiving me, it seems the NAM may be on to something. Heavy axis of precip is working its way into wake now
I
If it gets that right let's see if it gets those winds right as well. Had some decent gust pretty far inland
We shall see
And they wonder why the kids are struggling with math.. I’ll be quiet, I know it’s banter.
Maybe they were confused and thought it was snow.
Downeastnc
Member
I think it has more to do with the uncertainty surrounding why the models keep showing a large area of TS force winds gust developing over central/eastern NC right around daybreak when buses would be running.
The NHC mentions this in their last disco...
model fields suggest that Idalia could interact with the aforementioned coastal front, with an area of
stronger winds developing along the boundary near eastern North Carolina during the day.
They’re not closed due to the rain I’m sure. I think the concern is the modeling that’s showing 50mph wind gusts at a time in which school buses would be on the road.
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah kinda rude to make kids stand at a bus stop in driving rain and TS force gust.....
Tornado warning near Little River, SC.
Meh, I don't think it's going to be anything here but a little rain.
Well, WRAL just said maybe gusts to 40 mph here in the morning, so I guess it's better safe than sorry.
Personally I would have put it on a two-hour delay and then if the high wind materialized you can make the call to close
EMA Lowndes County GA posted that approximately 95% of Customers are without power. Wow. A mess down there.
Shaggy
Member
Been getting some decent winds here. It's quiet then all of a sudden a decent gust will rock the house. Sitting at just over 5 inches of rain.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Only about 1” of rain in Cary
Got 2" rain here with a gust to 22 last night.
Glad they closed school for a partly sunny day with a nice, fresh autumn breeze.
Glad they closed school for a partly sunny day with a nice, fresh autumn breeze.
They must have some built in snow days and realized they will not need them for that, better burn'em while they can
whatalife
Moderator
On Tuesday our school district said they were doing a half day on Wednesday and on Thursday they would operate on a two hour delay. The two hour delay they said would give them time to assess the roads and any power issues that they may have. On Wednesday afternoon, they decided to go ahead and cancel Thursday school all together and make an e-learning day. The system was out of here by 11 o’clock last night. Bright and sunny with just a small breeze this morning. With my three girls saying why did they cancel school for such a bright and sunny day. ?
Shaggy
Member
Been the ripping theblast 45 minutes
weather bubba
Member
My wife is a Wake County teacher and she approves of the decision to cancel school for a nice breeze and a few drops of rain this morning.
We did get 2.27 inches of much needed rain overnight and the air feels wonderful outside but that will be gone when it gets hot again early next week and stays that way for at least the next two weeks.
We did get 2.27 inches of much needed rain overnight and the air feels wonderful outside but that will be gone when it gets hot again early next week and stays that way for at least the next two weeks.
Solid 2 ft surge here in NMB 
Don't think I'll be swimming
Don't think I'll be swimming
Jrips2710
Member
Brent
Member
Idalia may not be done yet...
lexxnchloe
Member
Idalia needs to rest up a bit. It was fun here to get a good storm but not a cat 3 like FLA but it sure did hollow out fast. In 24 hours it basically became a low cloud swirl even though the land it crossed was flat and it was never far from warm water.
@lexxnchloe & everyone..
Idalia WAS NOT a *CAT 3*..
A CAT ONE..
Yes, it hit as a Cat3 - supposedly. EXCEPT: Perry, which from the radar that morning looks to have taken the eyewall in the face, only has reports of Cat 1 wind GUSTS. So where are the Cat3 winds? The screaming about it being a 4 or even worse was incessant for days. It didn't happen and from what I can see even the claims of a 3 are --------; the reported wind speeds from the ground supported a Cat 1, which is exactly what I expected would happen. Why didn't the monster everyone claimed was "muuuh~global~warming" happen?
The NHC printed several sustained wind numbers; I didn't see triple-digit ones in their list anywhere, including in places that the eyewall absolutely did hit, such as Perry.
In other words,, as with everything else these days its fake, gay, and catastrophized.
THINK.. THIS, was BARELY a hurricane. Maybe. Keaton Beach, the NHC and screamers forget, has a NOAA weather station. The eyewall made landfall at Fish Creek about 2 miles from there; I watched it on radar yesterday morning. Here's the pressure and wind from the station, which did not fail at any time during it.
MEH ya'll "wonder" why I don't post on that *other* board..
Idalia WAS NOT a *CAT 3*..
A CAT ONE..
Yes, it hit as a Cat3 - supposedly. EXCEPT: Perry, which from the radar that morning looks to have taken the eyewall in the face, only has reports of Cat 1 wind GUSTS. So where are the Cat3 winds? The screaming about it being a 4 or even worse was incessant for days. It didn't happen and from what I can see even the claims of a 3 are --------; the reported wind speeds from the ground supported a Cat 1, which is exactly what I expected would happen. Why didn't the monster everyone claimed was "muuuh~global~warming" happen?
The NHC printed several sustained wind numbers; I didn't see triple-digit ones in their list anywhere, including in places that the eyewall absolutely did hit, such as Perry.
In other words,, as with everything else these days its fake, gay, and catastrophized.
THINK.. THIS, was BARELY a hurricane. Maybe. Keaton Beach, the NHC and screamers forget, has a NOAA weather station. The eyewall made landfall at Fish Creek about 2 miles from there; I watched it on radar yesterday morning. Here's the pressure and wind from the station, which did not fail at any time during it.
MEH ya'll "wonder" why I don't post on that *other* board..
Attachments
Shaggy
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
What happened was it started to weaken before landfall and wind usually underperforms when that happens. It clearly had a cat3 pressure at landfall.
It’s also important to remember that the areas that likely saw the highest winds have no weather stations there. If this had gone say straight into Appalachicola or Carrabelle, it’s very likely that there would have been recorded wind gust well within category 3 range. Also, Perry did take a direct hit from the eyewall, but it’s also important to remember that it’s not a coastal town… it’s a ways inland and that would decrease the winds especially with the storm weakening right before landfall due to the EWRC. Everything about this storm, satellite representation, pressure readings, storm surge, and reconnaissance info says it was a category 3 at landfall.
lexxnchloe
Member
I agree.
Downeastnc
Member
I dunno Perry airport is only 12 miles inland, not far enough to account for a significant drop in winds, especially with how fast it was moving, one would have expected there to be winds there close to what the coast would have seen, the storm just did not have a chance to build a wind field reflecting all the things you mention above.
The storm was small and "young", it never had time to really establish a wind field, the ERC it started before landfall was going to take that rapid pressure fall and build a bigger stronger core, had it had another 12-18 hrs over water you would have seen a much better CDO with the better winds getting to the surface over a larger area.
Its a interesting argument to be had, because it did have the pressure and FL winds to easily support 120 mph strength, but even over water before landfall they were finding a extremely small area of hurricane force winds at the surface, and it was fairly lopsided to the east, which in this case was a problem as it pushed tons of water somewhere it had no where to go so the surge was also Cat 3. The Cat of a storm is not always going to tell you the entire story, for instance Charleston had a top 5 surge from this when it was basically a TS and never gusted over 40-45, but the fetch was just right to pile the water up, we see it down here on the sounds a lot from small storms or even just several days of NE winds like we have now.
So where are they recording sustained winds, not gusts, sustained winds for these storms? This has been going on for years with buoys and weather stations not recording sustained winds anywhere near what they are being reported as, so it must be several thousand feet above ground. Maybe they should classify the hurricanes based on barometric pressure instead. I only had to watch CNN for a few minutes for them to get their pre-scripted global warming agenda segment. Their temperature chart conveniently started at 1940, and they never showed a chart with the number of hurricanes, or severity. Yet, they claim to let the data speak for itself.
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Brent
Member
Let's just say we're dang lucky this hit where it did. Yeah maybe the winds didn't fully catch up but it's always the same method it has been to figure out intensity. There were the same old planes they've had since the 70s that some days barely take off. Now what the media does with that I don't know because I didn't watch them but I watched every ob on those recon planes in the final hours
Hey I'm sick of the GW stuff too but like this wasn't it...
Oh and another thing was the record surge in Cedar Key and even Tampa 100 miles away. As usual lately it was more about the water than the wind
Hey I'm sick of the GW stuff too but like this wasn't it...
Oh and another thing was the record surge in Cedar Key and even Tampa 100 miles away. As usual lately it was more about the water than the wind
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weather bubba
Member
I was following the storm coverage on AccuWeather's TV channel just before the eye made landfall and one of the meteorologists mentioned that Idalia had just started an eyewall replacement cycle at that time. This could help explain the difference in wind speeds between what the latest advisory mentioned at the time and the lower wind speeds that onshore recording stations were measuring.