Tropical Hurricane Idalia

[Snowfan]

 

[Chazwin]

Patented west shift…we should know how this works

View attachment 136571

This isn’t possible. Atlanta and GSP are supposed to be high and dry from this storm

 

[Rain Cold]

The NAM is most likely being the NAM. It's doing what it always does. Sucking.

 

[RollTide18]

Dang. NAM is very far West.

@accu35

 

[$alt]

Nam isn't too far off from the navy COAMPS or the 18z GFS landfall/track. So it's not alone in regards to that.

 

[JHS]

The NAM is most likely being the NAM. It's doing what it always does. Sucking.

Yeah this storm may actually be east of the forecast track now. This NAM run is most likely wrong.

 

[JHS]

Nam isn't too far off from the navy COAMPS or the 18z GFS landfall/track. So it's not alone in regards to that.

That track through GA and SC is a big change though.

 

[$alt]

I just find it interesting that GFS, COAMPS, and NAM are basically on top of each other track wise right now give or take some mileage for resolution.

ICON running, it's one of the further East models.. lets see.

 

[Rain Cold]

That track through GA and SC is a big change though.

18z NAM kind of did it. But nothing else of note is doing it. Unless we see some of the other models jump on it in a bit, we can assume it's most likely wrong.

 

[Chazwin]

That track through GA and SC is a big change though.

It’s not the first model to do that today. The GFS, Euro, UK and ICON have all been shifting west inland today…. Not as much as that NAM run but definitely noticeable

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 85.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

 

[JHS]

18z NAM kind of did it. But nothing else of note is doing it. Unless we see some of the other models jump on it in a bit, we can assume it's most likely wrong.

I'll believe it if the Euro shifts west.

 

[$alt]

I mean.. the HWRF & HMON are involved too... it's not just the NAM haha

 

[$alt]

from 12z Coamps page:

 

[Chazwin]

I'll believe it if the Euro shifts west.

Like I said it has, just not as much as that NAM run did…the NAM is probably too far west, but it’s not completely on an island by itself

 

[ILMRoss]

it does appear like it's leaked eastward some. may be an optical illusion though if the vortex is tilted due to shear. would love to get recon in to establish some more center fixes

 

[JHS]

NHC has it just inland in SC and exciting around Mrytle Beach.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Brent]

Recon would have been more clear if it was allowed to fly over Cuba...

 

[$alt]

icon basically the same, a bit stronger through 27 hours... Icon has been a good peek into what the euro eventually shows the last couple days.