Tropical Hurricane Idalia

[NoSnowATL]

Just a thought, but could how strong Franklin has gotten helped to strengthen the ridge between the two storms and causing Idalia to stay further west longer?

I think so.

 

[Brent]

Not much strengthening yet... But from what I remember most of the explosive intensification has always been at night

 

[NoSnowATL]

Not much strengthening yet... But from what I remember most of the explosive intensification has always been at night

All the hurricane models show it going boom tonight.

 

[Stormsfury]

I think so.

Yes, a small s/w ridge developed between Franklin and Idalia, transient though.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Closest model when it comes to location/ MB strength looks to be the GFS.

 

[Chazwin]

Looking the 12z Euro and the 18z NAM3k are actually pretty much in lock step with each other through hour 30 in terms of both track and speed. At that time the 3kNAM really starts to slow down the speed as the trough begins to pull away and the Euro keeps it the speed up not slowing until it gets off shore. So the NAM brings center up slowly through SC about 30 miles or so inland to about Florence while the Euro keeps the center on shore but closer to the coast and exits around Myrtle Beach.

 

[Rain Cold]

Yessir

12z


18z

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 84.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

 

[Snowfan]

 

[jeremyt]

Question for knowledge and not a statement. If they moved the track west and the ridge to the east of Florida is stronger and the trough is pulling out faster how is the track pretty much the same with a westward update?

 

[Brick Tamland]

The cone looks a tad more north and west into NC.

 

[Stormsfury]

Because it makes a sharp turn around the shortwave ridge...

 

[Chazwin]

Question for knowledge and not a statement. If they moved the track west and the ridge to the east of Florida is stronger and the trough is pulling out faster how is the track pretty much the same with a westward update?

This actually looks pretty good considering the trends in the modeling the last 18 hours and looks weighted to the latest guidance. They have obviously adjusted the landfall point to further north up the coast and made the adjustments to the storm surge forecasts.

 

[chase5ash]

Hot towers going up with lightning in E eyewall. Should be interesting what recon finds

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Hot towers going up with lightning in E eyewall. Should be interesting what recon finds

Looks like the eye is about to clear out before we lose visible imagery.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Same location, Faster and weaker. GFS 18z

 

[Arcc]

Just about show time.

 

[Chazwin]

Same location, Faster and weaker. GFS 18z

Very close to the 12z Euro. Exits off near Myrtle Beach around 12z Thursday. Also much more expansive rainfall to the northwest of the center… rain all the way back to the mountains

 

[Snowfan]

Cat 3 winds in the mid-levels.

 

[Snowfan]

964 mb per latest NOAA recon which corresponds to 969 mb. Also 103 kt flight level winds and 84 kt SFMR winds.

URNT15 KWBC 292148
NOAA3 1210A IDALIA HDOB 07 20230829
213900 2616N 08420W 7524 02363 9855 +155 +175 182088 090 067 016 01
213930 2616N 08422W 7518 02349 9836 +157 +172 187090 091 070 013 01
214000 2616N 08424W 7526 02328 9817 +158 +172 185092 094 074 013 01
214030 2615N 08426W 7512 02320 9797 +154 +173 182093 095 073 014 01
214100 2615N 08428W 7516 02283 9760 +157 +178 183098 103 071 032 01
214130 2615N 08430W 7506 02273 9715 +177 +195 191071 094 073 046 01
214200 2615N 08432W 7515 02256 9701 +180 +230 194053 060 084 023 01
214230 2614N 08434W 7516 02243 9674 +197 +335 196045 050 065 006 01
214300 2615N 08436W 7516 02232 9662 +198 +375 200035 042 046 002 01
214330 2615N 08438W 7516 02231 9661 +197 +319 203026 034 031 002 01
214400 2616N 08440W 7515 02227 9662 +191 +200 200011 019 027 001 01
214430 2616N 08442W 7514 02227 9652 +201 +209 204006 009 025 000 01
214500 2617N 08445W 7520 02221 9646 +211 +187 355007 018 025 002 00
214530 2616N 08447W 7521 02234 9665 +207 +190 339045 052 040 002 00
214600 2615N 08449W 7517 02266 9687 +216 +183 326059 061 062 002 00
214630 2614N 08451W 7513 02300 9736 +189 +188 322062 064 064 002 01
214700 2613N 08452W 7519 02313 9779 +172 +185 316063 064 063 003 01
214730 2612N 08454W 7513 02339 9806 +166 +184 313062 064 063 004 01
214800 2611N 08456W 7511 02360 9833 +159 +183 320056 063 059 022 01
214830 2610N 08458W 7511 02375 9857 +153 +177 321055 056 055 007 01