It's focusing on just west or near NOLA it seems. I bet it take the right side of the model Guidance because the northern movement atm. I just don't see a west NOLA landfall but I can be wrong.
I’m going 145
Pressure down to 984 mb.
Hopefully it will run out of Gulf for that to happen. Another 24h over water to strengthen, which is enough.
115-125 is my guess.
It will be interesting to see if NHC moves off of 140 at the next discussion.
Peak forecast down to 130 mph
The guidance TWC has been showing all morning doesn’t have it higher the 115mph.
NHC just went to 130.
James Spann mentioned dry air might slightly weaken it before landfall.
I don’t believe people are freaking out. He just asked a question.
To add to your great advice, read the NHC discussion to understand the "real" forecast. They have done a great job this year. Btw, they have NO comment on dry air. The only possibility at this time that is mentioned is EWRC.
Yeah I enjoy pondering difficult forecasts like intensity and specific track. I like seeing people's guesses and reasonings behind it. As Nick said, if you are in LA the prep should be the same, get out.
Yeah imagine discussing things like that on a weather forum ?
Lol I mean true I’m just saying it gets a little annoying hearing “I think it’s xxx mph at landfall” 16 different times and they’re all like 5 mph off.. I get it’s easy to get caught up in stuff like that but I like hearing analysis of processes going on and explanations during serious times like these but I mean hey we can always make a thread for guesses!
It better start strengthening then
