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Tropical Hurricane Ida

AT LANDFALL:
00z Euro is at 954, 06z GFS has peeled slightly back to 959.

06z HWRF is at 943 and 06z HMON is at 958.

4 am discussion, NHC stays at 140 mph.

Nothing much changed in locations for each one....
 
Anyone know why the Ukmet still has the most western track with this Hurricane? Is this common with this model?
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CDO spinning like a top getting very cold ?. Model intensity charts like ships won’t be as good as real time obs with recon it’s likely aiming for CAT 4 or stronger…maybe not at landfall but storm surge will be that of CAT 5.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Still 985mB. In spite of the improved presentation, strengthening has been slow overnight.
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Data is probably laggingg if it's it's looking better as a whole. If what delta said above about it forming a eye soon. Then no doubt it's strengthening at a good rate.

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She is still struggling to maintain thunderstorms around the center, she almost had the entire center wrapped with storms but now she had quite a bit of warming cloud tops the last few frames...
 
Zander98al said:
Data is probably laggingg if it's it's looking better as a whole. If what delta said above about it forming a eye soon. Then no doubt it's strengthening at a good rate.

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I'm not saying it won't, I'm saying it hasn't...yet.
 
Downeastnc said:
Certainly seems poised to take off once Ida gets her eyewall built but with these systems you just never know....recon should be about to get a few center fixes to see if she has the eye stabilized....
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The last vortex message at least had a circular eye. Earlier, it was a 10mi X30 mile egg. No doubt the structure is improving but there's no denying it was an underperformer overnight.
 
deltadog03 said:
Don't beat me up yall.....lol but I do see a lot of "northerly" movement....I know it will likely be a little blip...but something we have to watch for
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LOL I thought the same but at this stage of eye development its really hard to tell....once she pops a distinct eye that kind of motion will be easier to determine, I wont be surprised to find the next fix NNW of the last one though....
 
Rain Cold said:
That would put it at about a Cat 12

We do have another Nam run coming up here in just a little bit, so that just might be possible.
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Nam is starting to shut it's 3rd eye some so I think it's becoming a tad more reasonable lol

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