Tropical Hurricane Ida

[Wild Weather Monger]

Doesn’t that look and evolution, cause dry air to get pulled into the system between the tail and body of the storm? Hard to get a giant buzz saw - like storm with the tail? Am I totally off?

Not always.

 

[SD]

Doesn’t that look and evolution, cause dry air to get pulled into the system between the tail and body of the storm? Hard to get a giant buzz saw - like storm with the tail? Am I totally off?

Here is when Dorian had something similar


I'm probably making this too simplistic and to be honest tbh I just remembered this tail on some systems before they went boom

 

[Henry2326]

GFS and HWRF still holding at 950 and 940, similar to yesterday.

Also bizarre, Katrina formed on August 23, 2005 and dissipated on August 31, 2005.
History is repeating.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Hurricane flight level wind in NE quadrant.

 

[smast16]

Doesn’t that look and evolution, cause dry air to get pulled into the system between the tail and body of the storm? Hard to get a giant buzz saw - like storm with the tail? Am I totally off?

I'm not Met, but i do think it can, however, i think what SD is latching on to is the system has a long / rich feed of moisture into the system.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Already seeing some NE quad flight level winds at hurricane strength headed into the center this pass. Thunderstorm activity is also exploding on the north end of the center.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Not surprisingly, the TABD statistical model shows a stronger, earlier storm is more likely to landfall further east. It Ups the ante for a SE Louisiana landfall if it deepens faster, earlier IMO.

 

[jrips27]

Unrelated system but this is not good in addition to the 12-18” coming from IDA

 

[deltadog03]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears the latest recon data puts the CoC within the red circle. Are we still dealing with a MLC displaced from the LLC?

View attachment 89298

They will have to adjust....end game, prob not mean much. I still think NOLA take a direct hit with this.

 

[Metwannabe]

Blue arrows show a cirrus outflow, anticyclonic (high building over top) still some shear impinging on west side from the ull (red/yellow) bout only thing holding it back atm and it's not even holding it back that much

 

[deltadog03]

 

[deltadog03]

I think in the short term you still have a little correcting/shifting NE with the LLC (to properly align with the deep convection) and then once clears Cuba, it has a better shot w/o the shear. As of now, I would say 120 mph landfall over NOLA. My best guess at this point.

 

[Arcc]

Here is when Dorian had something similar
View attachment 89306

I'm probably making this too simplistic and to be honest tbh I just remembered this tail on some systems before they went boom

Hurricane Rita had a big inflow band the night it exploded.

 

[Arcc]

Not surprisingly, the TABD statistical model shows a stronger, earlier storm is more likely to landfall further east. It Ups the ante for a SE Louisiana landfall if it deepens faster, earlier IMO.
View attachment 89309View attachment 89309

Could be but something to think about, while a stronger storm typically moves more NE, a stronger storm can also move farther west if it explodes and pumps the ridge to its north.

Should be quite a show to resolve.

 

[SD]

 

[Nerman]

Unrelated system but this is not good in addition to the 12-18” coming from IDA

Wow, that is not good. Looking at New Orleans forecast for today and tomorrow they are expecting a lot of rain prior to Ida arriving. This could also complicate potential evacuations.

 

[Zander98al]

Bombs away

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk

 

[SD]

Michael also had a deep convective tail when it started to really get going

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Scotty Powell just said everyone in the Carolinas need to rush the gas stations now before they increase price or not have any. I’m gonna disagree with this plz don’t create panic just unfollow these people who create panic buying. I hate social media

 

[ForsythSnow]

Just by looking at the convection around the center at the moment you can tell it's probably starting to try to RI. I expect them to find high TS-force winds in the next pass or 2.