Not yet. I fully expect it to bumble around and only steady strengthen until tomorrow.
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Tropical Hurricane Ida
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Not yet. I fully expect it to bumble around and only steady strengthen until tomorrow.
Brent
Member
I said 130 mph Morgan City like 3 days ago in a joke chat
It might be close lol
It might be close lol
Jessy89
Member
120 at landfall. It isn’t exactly blowing up to fast although that could change
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What is Joe B saying? Does this really happen???
Some these doomsday post.. lol
Avalanche
Member
Lol. Brick.
Avalanche
Member
And we just thought they were collecting data.....
I’ll go with 135mph at landfall. My fear is that since it hasn’t started RI yet, it’s going to start and still be strengthening as it makes landfall. This doesn’t make much of a difference on storm surge, but a storm that is still deepening and landfall takes a lot longer to weaken overland than a storm that is already weakening over water. If RI had started by now, I would think there would be a better chance of an EWRC as it nears the coastline.
Avalanche
Member
Yeah, RI just before landfall limiting opportunities for weakening. Might just be what we see.
Looks like the 12Z GFS is poised to tick east.
I'm going with an inexplicable underperformer. 965mB 110 mph at landfall.
I'm going with an inexplicable underperformer. 965mB 110 mph at landfall.
I'm sticking with 120 at NOLA
We can hope it’s only 110mph at landfall.
Henry2326
Member
Narrowing it down....
Henry2326
Member
First time I've ever heard massive flooding and over 115 mph characterized as "underperformer".
And just as this is put out, the 12Z GFS brings hurricane conditions to Breton Sound
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Meh, no Camille, Betsy, Katrina, or Mathew. Those were the real deal.
Um wow this thing is getting for real, starting to warm the core up and get a legit eye 
Henry2326
Member
I guess you just have to be in those underperformers with the water piling up around you.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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You gonna chase? I bet you could get some good lightning pics on Sunday?
[mention]Myfrotho704_ [/mention] It will be a good day to take the drone up.
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kstrickland0823
Member
Looking at the radar and seeing the well defined eye, does it look like it’s further east than the “center path” predicted? Or maybe it’s just my eyes?
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah I thought Ida was looking pretty good earlier this morning tbh, seems as if things might be about to get started here.
While I do think that the NHC could have designated a PTC sooner, when they did the first forecast track did have it at 115mph at landfall. To me this is completely on local officials in New Orleans. They have access to the same weather models that we all do and if they don’t have a meteorologist on staff, they have access to their local mets for info. This started trending to a Louisiana threat by Wednesday and they could have started preparations then.
Stormsfury
Member
3 quick notes I've observed on Ida as of Noon Saturday...
1) a little dry patch showing up E/NE of the eye (intermittent coughs of dry air entrainment)
2) a crazy persistent outer band NE of Ida which has remained nearly anchored.
3) Outflow restricted Southern semicircle (probably where it's trying to fight off some coughs of drier air)
1) a little dry patch showing up E/NE of the eye (intermittent coughs of dry air entrainment)
2) a crazy persistent outer band NE of Ida which has remained nearly anchored.
3) Outflow restricted Southern semicircle (probably where it's trying to fight off some coughs of drier air)
Stormsfury
Member
Ida has been persistently riding the eastern Side of guidance.. not by much, but yes, it's been on the Eastern envelope
Yeah the IR presentation shows some dry air effecting the NE eyewall along with warming cloud tops the last hour, wonder if we’ll soon see a Convective blowup that can rotate upshear 
BHS1975
Member
I wonder id we'll see a big blow up of -90C tops like with Micheal later.
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kstrickland0823
Member
Ok Thank you! I keep watching it and I know that the cone is meant to show center can be anywhere within the cone, just have friends in Louisiana and trying to see which side they are going to be on. Which at this point looks like they will be east of the eye.
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mydoortotheworld
Member
I honestly think “underperformer”was used moreso as like, it’s not going to be the “demise of NOLA” that we thought it was going to be. Granted, even at 115mph, it will still be a formidable force that warrants the current evacuations that are taking place
That’s beautiful 
Brent
Member
Yes it and and the best water is still ahead
She's tipping her hand, look at the cirrus streaming towards La
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Still a lot of time for it to get stronger. These canes have been exploding really fast the past few years.
accu35
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I know I'm probably wrong, but dang if that doesn't look like a NNW motion.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Eye's starting to clear a bit better on visible. Can start to see the inner fast swirl of the center. If the north eye can fire some storms now she'll take off in a hurry. Otherwise she'll maybe be 90 by 2 and 100 by 5 at most.
According to the gfs and icon we are just going to circulate the vortex around for days
They say hurricanes of this magnitude always show where they’re going to go before they hit