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Tropical Hurricane Ida

Nerman said:
Wow, that is not good. Looking at New Orleans forecast for today and tomorrow they are expecting a lot of rain prior to Ida arriving. This could also complicate potential evacuations.
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With Covid and the timing there aren’t going to be mass evacuations of New Orleans. Just hope the new flood gates hold.
 
...IDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND WESTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 82.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
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Hurricane warning up for Cuba.
Peak now at 120 mph.
48H 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
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SD said:
One thing I have noticed the last couple of years the storms that have undergone RI have had this 9 structure with a tail of deep convection to the SE
View attachment 89301
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Shane I literally was making that observation last year too in my head I was thinking .. damn there always seems to be a festering blob near the main circulation almost like sister convection source … I’ve always thought about trying to find out how to do research about it
 
New track:
100510_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 
Snowfan said:
New track:
100510_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
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Interesting they jump straight to 120 then hold it before landfall. Pretty sure that's the more conservative end because of the unpredictable nature of storms near landfall. Worst case it's 120 on approach and pulls a Michael or Harvey and RI's at landfall to a 4 or 5, best case is it weakens and maxes over the water. Still going faster than previous cones however.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Hopefully NOLA can be spared with a east of the city landfall closer to florida as much as possible and miss the eddy altogether and hit the cooler patch. Unlikely for now tho prob 10% chance.
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Zero chance with the ridge in place. This is a LA landfall all day long.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Better for those in TN/NC. Rather see it spin out and lose some of the punch. Worse case would be fast moving at landfall then slowing near Atlanta, GA. Someone is getting screwed either way might as well be the people who volunteer to live below sea level.
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That's just ignorant. A lot of people can't help where they are born and don't have the means to move.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Better for those in TN/NC. Rather see it spin out and lose some of the punch. Worse case would be fast moving at landfall then slowing near Atlanta, GA. Someone is getting screwed either way might as well be the people who volunteer to live below sea level.
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NC has very little to worry about, again, due to the ridge. At most, enjoy the showery rain for 36 hours.
 
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